Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Vaduz v FC Thun

Kickoff: 2026-09-20 12:00 UTC

Final: FC Vaduz 1–2 FC Thun

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Vaduz (Local)

Prediction 38.17%2.62fair odd
EV -0.768%
Edge -0.296%
Kelly -0.480%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.74%38.18%38.22%39.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.412.402.6046.51%41.53%41.67%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Thun (Visit)

Prediction 38.51%2.60fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -1.49%
Kelly -2.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.98%38.52%38.50%39.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.402.402.5045.45%41.69%41.67%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.32%4.29fair odd
EV -0.883%
Edge -0.208%
Kelly -0.272%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.01%23.29%23.29%24.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.903.904.2527.78%25.61%25.64%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Vaduz (Local): 38.17%; FC Thun (Visit): 38.51%; Draw: 23.32%. For FC Vaduz (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.62. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.60, with an expected value of -0.768%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.23%EV -0.768%E -0.296%K -0.480%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.51%EV -5.64%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.27%EV -2.98%E -0.717%K -0.944%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-20 11:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%EV -1.53%E -0.594%K -0.969%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.52%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-20 11:59
BetUS🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%EV -1.53%E -0.594%K -0.969%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.52%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-20 11:59
BetAnything🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%EV -1.53%E -0.594%K -0.969%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.52%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.71%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-20 11:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.56%EV -3.82%E -1.52%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.48%EV -5.26%E -2.14%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.96%EV -7.88%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-20 11:55
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.80%EV -4.58%E -1.83%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.57%EV -5.64%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-20 11:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -4.58%E -1.83%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.79%EV -9.50%E -4.04%K -7.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -4.38%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 11:54
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.28%EV -4.58%E -1.83%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -9.05%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 11:54
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.74%EV -4.58%E -1.83%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%EV -9.50%E -4.04%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -11.38%E -2.99%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-20 11:59
1xBet🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.58%EV -4.97%E -1.99%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.48%EV -8.73%E -3.68%K -6.37%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 22.94%EV -4.85%E -1.19%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 11:59
GTbets🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.99%EV -5.35%E -2.16%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.46%EV -5.64%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-20 11:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.24%EV -5.73%E -2.32%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.72%EV -6.03%E -2.47%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%EV -4.38%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 11:54
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.01%EV -6.49%E -2.65%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.23%EV -3.72%E -1.49%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.76%EV -2.05%E -0.488%K -0.640%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-20 11:58
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.49%E -2.65%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.77%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 11:55
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.49%E -2.65%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.77%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-20 11:54
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.97%EV -6.49%E -2.65%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.55%EV -9.50%E -4.04%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.48%EV -13.71%E -3.71%K -5.08%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-20 11:55
Bovada🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 37.90%EV -6.87%E -2.82%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 38.69%EV -7.96%E -3.33%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.41%EV -7.88%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 11:58
Marathon Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.26%EV -7.26%E -2.99%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.26%EV -6.41%E -2.64%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.48%EV -7.65%E -1.93%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 11:59
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.80%EV -7.64%E -3.16%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.44%EV -8.34%E -3.50%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%EV -10.21%E -2.65%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-20 11:55
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.80%EV -7.64%E -3.16%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.44%EV -8.34%E -3.50%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%EV -10.21%E -2.65%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-20 11:54
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.28%EV -3.72%E -1.49%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -9.05%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 11:54
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.28%EV -3.72%E -1.49%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -9.05%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 11:54
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.28%EV -3.72%E -1.49%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -9.05%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 11:55
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.28%EV -3.72%E -1.49%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -9.05%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 11:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.28%EV -3.72%E -1.49%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -9.05%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 11:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.28%EV -3.72%E -1.49%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -9.05%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 11:54
betPARX🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.28%EV -3.72%E -1.49%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -9.05%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 11:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.28%EV -3.72%E -1.49%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -9.05%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 11:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.28%EV -3.72%E -1.49%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -9.05%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 11:54
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 11:55
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 11:50
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -5.64%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -11.38%E -2.99%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 11:49
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -5.64%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -11.38%E -2.99%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 11:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -5.64%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -11.38%E -2.99%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 11:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -5.64%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -11.38%E -2.99%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 11:50
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.23%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -8.34%E -3.50%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.23%EV -7.88%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 11:54
betano_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.11%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.43%EV -8.34%E -3.50%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -9.05%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-20 11:54
Bet Victor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.11%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.43%EV -8.34%E -3.50%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -9.05%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-20 11:58
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.69%EV -11.42%E -4.97%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%EV -4.38%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 11:59
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.38%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -11.42%E -4.97%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -11.38%E -2.99%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-20 11:54
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.90%EV -8.40%E -3.50%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.50%EV -11.42%E -4.97%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -16.04%E -4.46%K -6.17%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 11:55
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -9.16%E -3.85%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.34%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 11:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.58%EV -9.16%E -3.85%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -11.42%E -4.97%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -11.38%E -2.99%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-20 11:54
Neds🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.58%EV -9.16%E -3.85%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -11.42%E -4.97%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -11.38%E -2.99%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-20 11:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.68%EV -9.55%E -4.03%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.82%EV -11.42%E -4.97%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.50%EV -11.38%E -2.99%K -4.06%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 11:55
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.68%EV -9.55%E -4.03%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.82%EV -11.42%E -4.97%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.50%EV -11.38%E -2.99%K -4.06%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 11:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.81%EV -10.31%E -4.39%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.18%EV -5.64%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.01%EV -0.883%E -0.208%K -0.272%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-20 11:55
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -10.31%E -4.39%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.15%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-20 11:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.42%EV -10.31%E -4.39%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.42%EV -9.50%E -4.04%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.15%EV -9.05%E -2.32%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-20 11:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.99%EV -10.31%E -4.39%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.68%EV -13.35%E -5.93%K -10.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.32%EV -6.71%E -1.68%K -2.24%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 11:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.55%EV -10.31%E -4.39%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.22%EV -13.35%E -5.93%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.22%EV -11.38%E -2.99%K -4.06%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-20 11:54
BetRivers🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.86%EV -11.45%E -4.94%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.10%EV -6.41%E -2.64%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -12.54%E -3.35%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-20 11:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.31%EV -11.45%E -4.94%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.31%EV -10.65%E -4.59%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -11.38%E -2.99%K -4.06%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-20 11:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -12.22%E -5.31%K -9.40%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.98%EV -6.41%E -2.64%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -12.54%E -3.35%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-20 11:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.82%EV -12.22%E -5.31%K -9.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.99%EV -9.50%E -4.04%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.19%EV -10.21%E -2.65%K -3.58%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 11:53
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.97%EV -12.98%E -5.69%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.02%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -13.71%E -3.71%K -5.08%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-20 11:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.97%EV -12.98%E -5.69%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.02%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -13.71%E -3.71%K -5.08%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-20 11:54
PMU (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.97%EV -12.98%E -5.69%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.02%EV -7.57%E -3.15%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -13.71%E -3.71%K -5.08%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-20 11:55
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.32%EV -17.94%E -8.35%K -15.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.43%EV -15.27%E -6.94%K -12.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.25%EV -11.38%E -2.99%K -4.06%G +0.000%18.3%2026-09-20 11:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.60%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.77%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.63%0.8%2026-09-20 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.60%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.77%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.63%0.8%2026-09-20 11:55
Matchbook◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.31%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.07%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.63%0.8%2026-09-20 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.48%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.96%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.56%1.1%2026-09-20 11:55
Smarkets◎2.62I 38.17%NM 37.63%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.44%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.93%1.4%2026-09-20 11:55