La escuela de los momios

FC Thun v BSC Young Boys

Inicio: 2026-05-14 14:32 UTC

Final: FC Thun 3–8 BSC Young Boys

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

FC Thun (Local)

Predicción 42.77%2.34momio equitativo
EV -2.49%
Ventaja -1.09%
Kelly -1.95%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.28

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.04%42.78%42.70%44.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.152.152.2850.00%46.59%46.62%43.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

BSC Young Boys (Visitante)

Predicción 33.38%3.00momio equitativo
EV -1.53%
Ventaja -0.517%
Kelly -0.783%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.09%33.34%33.44%35.21%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.402.772.782.9541.67%36.15%35.97%33.90%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 23.85%4.19momio equitativo
EV +0.178%
Ventaja +0.042%
Kelly +0.056%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.54%23.89%23.87%25.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.823.854.2030.30%26.15%25.97%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Coolbet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.91%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.02%EV -6.53%E -2.33%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%EV +0.178%E +0.042%K +0.056%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-14 14:28
Pinnacle2.23I 44.84%NM 43.38%EV -4.63%E -2.08%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.79%EV -1.53%E -0.517%K -0.783%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.83%EV -3.16%E -0.779%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-14 14:29
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -5.91%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -6.53%E -2.33%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -4.59%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-14 14:30
PointsBet (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -8.05%E -3.74%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -8.20%E -2.98%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -4.59%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-14 14:29
Bet Right2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%EV -8.05%E -3.74%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -9.87%E -3.66%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -4.59%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-14 14:29
betfred_uk2.15I 46.51%NM 42.41%EV -8.05%E -3.74%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -12.54%E -4.79%K -7.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.79%EV -4.59%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-14 14:29
Unibet (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56%EV -5.91%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -6.53%E -2.33%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-14 14:30
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -8.05%E -3.74%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.72%EV -4.86%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-14 14:30
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 42.30%EV -5.91%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -8.20%E -2.98%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:31
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -6.77%E -3.10%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.47%EV -7.20%E -2.59%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:29
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 42.68%EV -6.77%E -3.10%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.47%EV -7.20%E -2.59%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-14 14:29
BetMGM2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -8.05%E -3.74%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.11%EV -6.53%E -2.33%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-14 14:28
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 42.60%EV -8.05%E -3.74%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.92%EV -9.87%E -3.66%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-14 14:29
Winamax (DE)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.17%EV -10.19%E -4.85%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -9.87%E -3.66%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-14 14:30
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.17%EV -10.19%E -4.85%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -9.87%E -3.66%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-14 14:29
Unibet (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.03%EV -12.33%E -6.01%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.82%EV -8.20%E -2.98%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14%EV -6.98%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-14 14:29
Marathon Bet2.19I 45.66%NM 42.56%EV -6.34%E -2.89%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.41%EV -6.87%E -2.46%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.02%EV -7.45%E -1.92%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-14 14:29
GTbets2.17I 46.08%NM 43.47%EV -7.20%E -3.32%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.09%EV -1.86%E -0.633%K -0.959%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.44%EV -7.93%E -2.05%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-14 14:28
Unibet2.14I 46.73%NM 43.35%EV -8.48%E -3.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.55%EV -4.86%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-14 14:30
TABtouch2.14I 46.73%NM 43.35%EV -8.48%E -3.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.55%EV -4.86%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-14 14:31
Unibet (NL)2.14I 46.73%NM 43.35%EV -8.48%E -3.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.55%EV -4.86%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-14 14:31
Virgin Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 43.35%EV -8.48%E -3.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.55%EV -4.86%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-14 14:30
Casumo2.14I 46.73%NM 43.35%EV -8.48%E -3.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.55%EV -4.86%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-14 14:30
Unibet (SE)2.14I 46.73%NM 43.35%EV -8.48%E -3.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.55%EV -4.86%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-14 14:31
Grosvenor2.14I 46.73%NM 43.35%EV -8.48%E -3.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.55%EV -4.86%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-14 14:30
BetRivers2.14I 46.73%NM 43.35%EV -8.48%E -3.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.55%EV -4.86%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-14 14:20
ATG (SE)2.14I 46.73%NM 43.35%EV -8.48%E -3.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.55%EV -4.86%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-14 14:31
Svenska Spel2.14I 46.73%NM 43.35%EV -8.48%E -3.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.55%EV -4.86%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-14 14:30
betPARX2.14I 46.73%NM 43.35%EV -8.48%E -3.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.55%EV -4.86%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-14 14:30
Bovada2.18I 45.87%NM 42.39%EV -6.77%E -3.10%K -5.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.60%EV -8.20%E -2.98%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-14 14:29
LeoVegas2.12I 47.17%NM 43.58%EV -9.33%E -4.40%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.42%EV -4.86%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-14 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 43.58%EV -9.33%E -4.40%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.42%EV -4.86%E -1.71%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-14 14:30
BetUS2.14I 46.73%NM 43.10%EV -8.48%E -3.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.94%EV -6.53%E -2.33%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.96%EV -8.17%E -2.12%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-14 14:30
Betclic (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 43.86%EV -11.47%E -5.54%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.43%EV -6.53%E -2.33%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.71%EV -8.65%E -2.26%K -3.06%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-14 14:25
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 42.04%EV -5.91%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -8.20%E -2.98%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -9.36%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-14 14:30
LiveScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -10.19%E -4.85%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -6.53%E -2.33%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.36%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-14 14:31
PMU (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -10.19%E -4.85%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -6.53%E -2.33%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.36%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-14 14:31
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 43.17%EV -10.19%E -4.85%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -8.20%E -2.98%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -9.36%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-14 14:30
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 43.17%EV -10.19%E -4.85%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -8.20%E -2.98%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -9.36%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-14 14:30
1xBet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.04%EV -2.49%E -1.09%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.27%EV -8.87%E -3.25%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 24.69%EV -9.60%E -2.53%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-14 14:29
BetOnline.ag2.24I 44.64%NM 41.91%EV -4.20%E -1.88%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.06%EV -5.20%E -1.83%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -10.56%E -2.81%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-14 14:30
LowVig.ag2.24I 44.64%NM 41.91%EV -4.20%E -1.88%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.06%EV -5.20%E -1.83%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -10.56%E -2.81%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-14 14:29
BetAnything2.24I 44.64%NM 41.91%EV -4.20%E -1.88%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.06%EV -5.20%E -1.83%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -10.56%E -2.81%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-14 14:29
Everygame2.15I 46.51%NM 42.20%EV -8.05%E -3.74%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.60%EV -9.87%E -3.66%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -10.56%E -2.81%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-14 14:29
Coral2.15I 46.51%NM 41.77%EV -8.05%E -3.74%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.28%EV -12.54%E -4.79%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -10.56%E -2.81%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-14 14:31
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.77%EV -8.05%E -3.74%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.28%EV -12.54%E -4.79%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -10.56%E -2.81%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-14 14:31
BoyleSports2.00I 50.00%NM 42.25%EV -14.47%E -7.23%K -14.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.21%EV -19.89%E -8.29%K -14.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.54%EV -10.56%E -2.81%K -3.84%G +0.000%18.3%2026-05-14 14:31
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 41.76%EV -5.91%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -8.20%E -2.98%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -11.75%E -3.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-14 14:29
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 41.76%EV -5.91%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -8.20%E -2.98%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -11.75%E -3.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-14 14:30
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.76%EV -5.91%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -8.20%E -2.98%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -11.75%E -3.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-14 14:29
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.76%EV -5.91%E -2.69%K -4.93%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -8.20%E -2.98%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -11.75%E -3.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-14 14:29
PlayUp2.15I 46.51%NM 42.06%EV -8.05%E -3.74%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.49%EV -9.87%E -3.66%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -11.75%E -3.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-14 14:30
Neds2.10I 47.62%NM 42.64%EV -10.19%E -4.85%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.16%EV -9.87%E -3.66%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -11.75%E -3.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-14 14:29
Ladbrokes (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 42.64%EV -10.19%E -4.85%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.16%EV -9.87%E -3.66%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -11.75%E -3.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-14 14:29
Winamax (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 42.69%EV -12.33%E -6.01%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.66%EV -13.21%E -5.08%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.65%EV -11.75%E -3.18%K -4.35%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-14 14:30
NetBet (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 42.58%EV -11.47%E -5.54%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.26%EV -11.54%E -4.35%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.15%EV -12.94%E -3.55%K -4.88%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-14 14:31
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 42.35%EV -10.19%E -4.85%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.94%EV -9.87%E -3.66%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -14.13%E -3.93%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-14 14:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 42.10%EV -14.47%E -7.23%K -14.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.38%EV -13.21%E -5.08%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.52%EV -21.29%E -6.45%K -9.26%G +0.000%18.8%2026-05-14 14:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.42%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.00%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57%1.0%2026-05-14 14:31
Smarkets2.28I 43.86%NM 42.99%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.11%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.90%2.0%2026-05-14 14:31
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.30%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.87%2.2%2026-05-14 14:31
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.26I 44.25%NM 43.30%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.87%2.2%2026-05-14 14:30
Matchbook2.26I 44.25%NM 43.30%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.87%2.2%2026-05-14 14:31