The School of Odds
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FC St Gallen v FC Luzern

2026-08-09 14:30 UTC — Swiss Superleague

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC St Gallen (Local)

Prediction 44.92%2.23fair odd
EV -4.33%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -3.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.90%44.87%44.94%45.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.042.052.1351.55%49.11%48.78%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Luzern (Visit)

Prediction 29.89%3.35fair odd
EV -0.157%
Edge -0.047%
Kelly -0.067%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.52%29.88%29.74%31.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.033.003.3435.71%32.97%33.33%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.19%3.97fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -0.449%
Kelly -0.604%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.80%25.26%25.32%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.283.673.733.9030.49%27.28%26.85%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: FC St Gallen (Local): 44.92%; FC Luzern (Visit): 29.89%; Draw: 25.19%. For FC Luzern (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.35. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.34, with an expected value of -0.157%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle2.13I 46.95%NM 44.72%EV -4.33%E -2.03%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.52%EV -0.157%E -0.047%K -0.067%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.76%EV -10.32%E -2.90%K -4.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-02 18:19
Coolbet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.75%EV -4.78%E -2.25%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.60%EV -7.33%E -2.37%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.64%EV -3.01%E -0.782%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 18:51
1xBet2.11I 47.39%NM 44.36%EV -5.23%E -2.48%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.89%EV -3.15%E -0.971%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 18:20
Marathon Bet2.09I 47.85%NM 44.60%EV -6.13%E -2.93%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.77%EV -3.15%E -0.971%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-02 18:17
Codere (IT)2.07I 48.31%NM 44.80%EV -7.03%E -3.39%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.44%EV -5.84%E -1.85%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.76%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-02 18:34
Tipico (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -7.92%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -4.34%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -6.79%E -1.84%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 20:05
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 45.27%EV -7.92%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -1.75%E -0.449%K -0.604%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-02 18:55
Fanatics2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -7.92%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -4.27%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 18:24
betfred_uk2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -7.92%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-02 18:50
NordicBet2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.92%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.33%E -2.37%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-02 18:34
Betsson2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.92%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.33%E -2.37%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-02 18:34
SportsBet2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -7.92%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -11.82%E -4.01%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -4.27%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 18:54
Bet Right2.05I 48.78%NM 44.61%EV -7.92%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.00%EV -11.82%E -4.01%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 18:50
Unibet (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -7.92%E -3.87%K -7.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -13.31%E -4.59%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -4.27%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-02 18:50
Betclic (FR)2.03I 49.26%NM 43.90%EV -8.82%E -4.35%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 28.93%EV -7.93%E -2.57%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.17%EV -17.37%E -5.30%K -7.62%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-02 18:33
LeoVegas2.02I 49.50%NM 44.75%EV -9.27%E -4.59%K -9.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -9.31%E -2.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-02 18:55
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -10.17%E -5.08%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -4.27%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-02 18:19
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -10.17%E -5.08%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -4.27%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-02 18:20
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -10.17%E -5.08%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -4.27%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-02 18:19
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -10.17%E -5.08%K -10.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -10.32%E -3.44%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -4.27%E -1.12%K -1.53%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-02 18:20
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 44.98%EV -10.17%E -5.08%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.02%EV -13.31%E -4.59%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.99%EV -5.53%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-02 18:55
Winamax (DE)1.96I 51.02%NM 44.73%EV -11.97%E -6.11%K -12.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.23%EV -13.31%E -4.59%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.05%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-02 18:34
Sky Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 44.37%EV -12.42%E -6.37%K -13.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -16.30%E -5.82%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.72%EV -11.83%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-02 18:55
Winamax (FR)1.94I 51.55%NM 44.58%EV -12.86%E -6.63%K -13.69%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.35%EV -14.80%E -5.19%K -8.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.07%EV -13.09%E -3.79%K -5.34%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-02 18:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.99I 50.25%NM 44.38%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.64%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%13.2%2026-08-02 18:35