The School of Odds
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FC Luzern v FC Basel

2026-09-13 14:30 UTC — Swiss Superleague

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Luzern (Local)

Prediction 45.09%2.22fair odd
EV -5.30%
Edge -2.53%
Kelly -4.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.57%45.11%45.06%46.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.042.052.1051.55%49.11%48.78%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Basel (Visit)

Prediction 31.45%3.18fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.86%31.47%31.48%33.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.872.903.0838.02%34.86%34.48%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.45%4.26fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -0.760%
Kelly -1.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.45%23.41%23.46%24.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.893.904.1327.78%25.68%25.64%24.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: FC Luzern (Local): 45.09%; FC Basel (Visit): 31.45%; Draw: 23.45%. For FC Basel (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.08, with an expected value of -3.12%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.96%EV -5.30%E -2.53%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.97%EV -11.93%E -4.26%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.19%E -1.55%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 16:10
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -5.30%E -2.53%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.27%EV -13.50%E -4.91%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.16%EV -7.36%E -1.86%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 18:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.79%EV -6.66%E -3.22%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.43%EV -7.21%E -2.44%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -8.53%E -2.19%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 15:25
Pinnacle🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.13%EV -7.11%E -3.45%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.86%EV -3.12%E -1.01%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.01%EV -3.14%E -0.760%K -1.00%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 17:20
1xBet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.50%EV -7.11%E -3.45%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.35%EV -5.95%E -1.99%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.15%EV -5.02%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 17:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.54%EV -7.56%E -3.69%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.19%E -1.55%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 19:10
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.06%EV -7.56%E -3.69%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.41%EV -10.36%E -3.63%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.53%EV -3.84%E -0.937%K -1.24%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 16:15
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.06%EV -7.56%E -3.69%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -8.78%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -6.19%E -1.55%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 17:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.79%EV -7.56%E -3.69%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -8.78%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.54%EV -8.53%E -2.19%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-06 15:25
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.55%EV -7.56%E -3.69%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -11.93%E -4.26%K -6.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -6.19%E -1.55%K -2.06%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 16:15
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -7.56%E -3.69%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.78%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -10.88%E -2.86%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 15:25
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -7.56%E -3.69%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.78%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -10.88%E -2.86%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 15:25
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -7.56%E -3.69%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.78%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -10.88%E -2.86%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 17:10
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -7.56%E -3.69%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.78%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -10.88%E -2.86%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 17:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -7.56%E -3.69%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.78%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -10.88%E -2.86%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 17:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.52%EV -7.56%E -3.69%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.78%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -10.88%E -2.86%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 17:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.75%EV -8.01%E -3.93%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.21%EV -5.95%E -1.99%K -2.99%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.04%EV -5.02%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 17:10
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.92%EV -8.91%E -4.41%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.51%EV -9.41%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -9.71%E -2.52%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 17:25
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -9.81%E -4.91%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -13.50%E -4.91%K -7.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -6.19%E -1.55%K -2.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-06 16:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.99%EV -10.72%E -5.41%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.26%EV -10.36%E -3.63%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.75%EV -12.05%E -3.21%K -4.38%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-06 17:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.87%EV -11.62%E -5.93%K -12.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.98%EV -13.50%E -4.91%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.14%EV -10.88%E -2.86%K -3.89%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-06 15:25
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 43.80%EV -12.07%E -6.19%K -12.70%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.48%EV -17.28%E -6.57%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.72%EV -15.57%E -4.32%K -5.99%G +0.000%17.1%2026-09-06 16:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 44.59%EV -12.52%E -6.45%K -13.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.04%EV -15.07%E -5.58%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.38%EV -13.22%E -3.57%K -4.90%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-06 15:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.95I 51.28%NM 44.13%2.72I 36.76%NM 31.63%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.24%16.2%2026-09-06 15:25