Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Lugano v FC St Gallen

Kickoff: 2026-09-16 17:00 UTC

Final: FC Lugano 4–1 FC St Gallen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Lugano (Local)

Prediction 43.09%2.32fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -2.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.48%43.29%43.19%46.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.112.152.2651.81%47.46%46.51%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC St Gallen (Visit)

Prediction 32.06%3.12fair odd
EV -0.617%
Edge -0.199%
Kelly -0.294%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.36%31.84%31.96%33.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.902.903.1038.46%34.48%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.85%4.02fair odd
EV -0.583%
Edge -0.146%
Kelly -0.194%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.80%24.86%24.85%26.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.693.704.0029.41%27.09%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Lugano (Local): 43.09%; FC St Gallen (Visit): 32.06%; Draw: 24.85%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.02. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.00, with an expected value of -0.583%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.84%EV -2.62%E -1.16%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.64%EV -11.77%E -3.31%K -4.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-16 16:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.84%EV -2.62%E -1.16%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.64%EV -11.77%E -3.31%K -4.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-16 16:41
Pinnacle🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.00%EV -3.05%E -1.36%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.61%EV -1.90%E -0.621%K -0.922%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.39%EV -5.30%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-16 16:51
Codere (IT)🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.23%EV -3.49%E -1.56%K -2.81%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.19%EV -8.63%E -3.03%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.57%EV -4.31%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-16 16:55
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.32%EV -5.21%E -2.37%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.86%EV -7.03%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82%EV -0.583%E -0.146%K -0.194%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-16 16:55
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -5.21%E -2.37%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -5.43%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -6.80%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-16 16:40
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -5.21%E -2.37%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -10.52%E -2.92%K -4.05%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-16 16:55
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.58%EV -5.21%E -2.37%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -5.43%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -9.28%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-16 16:50
BetAnything🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.58%EV -5.21%E -2.37%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -5.43%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -9.28%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-16 16:46
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.21%E -2.37%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -8.63%E -3.03%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -8.04%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-16 16:55
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.12%EV -6.07%E -2.78%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.39%EV -11.84%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -6.80%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-16 16:55
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.84%EV -6.07%E -2.78%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -11.84%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -9.28%E -2.54%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-16 16:51
1xBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.08%EV -6.50%E -3.00%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.79%EV -5.75%E -1.95%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.13%EV -7.54%E -2.03%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-16 16:45
Bovada🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.53%EV -6.50%E -3.00%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.03%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -10.52%E -2.92%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-16 16:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.26%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.74%EV -6.07%E -2.07%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.00%EV -7.54%E -2.03%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-16 16:45
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.03%EV -7.03%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -6.80%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 16:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.10%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -8.63%E -3.03%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -5.55%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-16 16:55
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -10.23%E -3.66%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -5.55%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-16 16:55
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.71%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -10.23%E -3.66%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -6.80%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-16 16:55
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -7.03%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -13.01%E -3.72%K -5.20%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-16 16:55
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -7.03%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -13.01%E -3.72%K -5.20%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-16 16:35
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -7.03%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -13.01%E -3.72%K -5.20%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-16 16:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -7.03%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -13.01%E -3.72%K -5.20%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-16 16:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -7.03%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -13.01%E -3.72%K -5.20%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-16 16:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.34%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.71%EV -13.44%E -4.98%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -5.55%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-16 16:51
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -10.23%E -3.66%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -13.01%E -3.72%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-16 16:51
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -13.44%E -4.98%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.01%E -3.72%K -5.20%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-16 16:55
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -13.44%E -4.98%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.01%E -3.72%K -5.20%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-16 16:55
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -13.44%E -4.98%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.01%E -3.72%K -5.20%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-16 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -7.36%E -3.42%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -13.44%E -4.98%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -13.01%E -3.72%K -5.20%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-16 16:55
GTbets🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.62%EV -8.66%E -4.08%K -7.73%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.12%EV -2.54%E -0.836%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV -3.07%E -0.787%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-16 16:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -9.52%E -4.53%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -0.617%E -0.199%K -0.294%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -8.04%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-16 16:35
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.29%EV -9.52%E -4.53%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -10.23%E -3.66%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -6.80%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-16 16:45
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.29%EV -9.52%E -4.53%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -10.23%E -3.66%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -6.80%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-16 16:49
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -9.52%E -4.53%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -7.67%E -2.66%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -13.01%E -3.72%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-16 16:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -9.52%E -4.53%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -7.67%E -2.66%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -13.01%E -3.72%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-16 16:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.90%EV -9.52%E -4.53%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.76%EV -11.84%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -8.04%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-16 16:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.51%EV -9.52%E -4.53%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.69%EV -15.04%E -5.68%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.80%EV -6.80%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-16 16:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -9.52%E -4.53%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.01%EV -13.44%E -4.98%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.55%EV -9.78%E -2.69%K -3.72%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-16 16:54
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -9.52%E -4.53%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -10.23%E -3.66%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -15.50%E -4.56%K -6.46%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-16 16:56
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.53%EV -11.67%E -5.69%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.90%EV -15.04%E -5.68%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.56%EV -11.77%E -3.31%K -4.61%G +0.000%14.7%2026-09-16 16:55
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.09%EV -12.96%E -6.42%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -0.617%E -0.199%K -0.294%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -3.07%E -0.787%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 03:11
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.09%EV -12.96%E -6.42%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -0.617%E -0.199%K -0.294%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -3.07%E -0.787%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 03:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.09%EV -12.96%E -6.42%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -0.617%E -0.199%K -0.294%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -3.07%E -0.787%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 03:10
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.09%EV -12.96%E -6.42%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -0.617%E -0.199%K -0.294%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -3.07%E -0.787%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 03:10
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.09%EV -12.96%E -6.42%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -0.617%E -0.199%K -0.294%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -3.07%E -0.787%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 03:10
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.09%EV -12.96%E -6.42%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -0.617%E -0.199%K -0.294%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -3.07%E -0.787%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 03:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.09%EV -12.96%E -6.42%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -0.617%E -0.199%K -0.294%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -3.07%E -0.787%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 03:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.09%EV -12.96%E -6.42%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -0.617%E -0.199%K -0.294%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -3.07%E -0.787%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 03:10
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.09%EV -12.96%E -6.42%K -12.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.03%EV -0.617%E -0.199%K -0.294%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -3.07%E -0.787%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 03:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.51%EV -12.96%E -6.42%K -12.71%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 31.73%EV -11.20%E -4.04%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.76%EV -11.77%E -3.31%K -4.61%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-16 16:46
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.72%EV -13.83%E -6.91%K -13.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.86%EV -16.65%E -6.40%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.41%EV -13.01%E -3.72%K -5.20%G +0.000%17.0%2026-09-16 16:51
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.68%EV -15.98%E -8.20%K -16.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.36%EV -0.617%E -0.199%K -0.294%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.95%EV -5.55%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-16 15:40
BetRivers🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.08%EV -15.98%E -8.20%K -16.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -6.80%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-16 03:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.21%EV -16.41%E -8.46%K -17.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.88%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -6.80%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-16 03:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.96%EV -16.84%E -8.73%K -18.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.07%EV -5.43%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -8.04%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-16 03:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.96%EV -16.84%E -8.73%K -18.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.07%EV -5.43%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -8.04%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-16 03:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.96%EV -16.84%E -8.73%K -18.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.07%EV -5.43%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -8.04%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-16 03:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.30I 43.48%NM 44.13%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.85%3.90I 25.64%NM 26.02%-1.5%2026-09-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.18%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%0.7%2026-09-16 16:55
Matchbook◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.75%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.76%0.8%2026-09-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.96%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.67%1.2%2026-09-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.96%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.67%1.2%2026-09-16 16:55