La escuela de los momios

FC Lugano v BSC Young Boys

Inicio: 2026-05-03 14:30 UTC

Final: FC Lugano 1–0 BSC Young Boys

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

FC Lugano (Local)

Predicción 44.90%2.23momio equitativo
EV -3.91%
Ventaja -1.83%
Kelly -3.43%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.14

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.39%44.81%44.90%46.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.912.062.052.1452.36%48.46%48.78%46.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

BSC Young Boys (Visitante)

Predicción 30.12%3.32momio equitativo
EV -1.50%
Ventaja -0.459%
Kelly -0.662%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.27

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.22%30.17%30.11%31.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.013.003.2735.71%33.18%33.33%30.58%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.98%4.00momio equitativo
EV -0.091%
Ventaja -0.023%
Kelly -0.030%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.58%25.02%24.99%26.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.203.653.704.0031.25%27.38%27.03%25.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle2.14I 46.73%NM 45.21%EV -3.91%E -1.83%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.59%EV -1.50%E -0.459%K -0.662%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.20%EV -4.09%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-03 14:20
GTbets2.14I 46.73%NM 44.30%EV -3.91%E -1.83%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.48%EV -6.32%E -2.03%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.21%EV -6.09%E -1.62%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 13:20
Unibet (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 43.40%EV -4.81%E -2.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -12.65%E -4.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 10:40
Casumo2.12I 47.17%NM 43.40%EV -4.81%E -2.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -12.65%E -4.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 10:40
Grosvenor2.12I 47.17%NM 43.40%EV -4.81%E -2.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -12.65%E -4.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 10:40
LeoVegas (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 43.40%EV -4.81%E -2.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -12.65%E -4.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 10:40
TABtouch2.12I 47.17%NM 43.40%EV -4.81%E -2.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -12.65%E -4.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 10:40
LeoVegas2.12I 47.17%NM 43.40%EV -4.81%E -2.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -12.65%E -4.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 10:40
BetRivers2.12I 47.17%NM 43.40%EV -4.81%E -2.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -12.65%E -4.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 10:40
Virgin Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 43.40%EV -4.81%E -2.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -12.65%E -4.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 10:40
Unibet2.12I 47.17%NM 43.40%EV -4.81%E -2.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -12.65%E -4.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 10:40
Unibet (NL)2.12I 47.17%NM 43.40%EV -4.81%E -2.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -12.65%E -4.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 10:40
betPARX2.12I 47.17%NM 43.40%EV -4.81%E -2.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -12.65%E -4.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 10:40
ATG (SE)2.12I 47.17%NM 43.40%EV -4.81%E -2.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -12.65%E -4.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 10:40
Svenska Spel2.12I 47.17%NM 43.40%EV -4.81%E -2.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.73%EV -12.65%E -4.36%K -6.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 10:40
Coolbet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.21%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.14%EV -5.12%E -1.62%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -3.84%E -0.997%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 13:20
BetOnline.ag2.10I 47.62%NM 45.12%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -3.61%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -6.34%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 14:20
LowVig.ag2.10I 47.62%NM 45.12%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -3.61%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -6.34%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 14:20
BetAnything2.10I 47.62%NM 45.12%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -3.61%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -6.34%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 14:21
DraftKings2.10I 47.62%NM 44.91%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.12%E -1.62%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -6.34%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 14:00
Unibet (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.47%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -8.13%E -2.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -6.34%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 14:15
BetMGM2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 13:19
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.63%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-03 14:15
LiveScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 43.39%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.64%EV -13.25%E -4.60%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.97%EV -8.83%E -2.42%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 10:40
PMU (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 43.39%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.64%EV -13.25%E -4.60%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.97%EV -8.83%E -2.42%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 10:40
Marathon Bet2.09I 47.85%NM 44.65%EV -6.16%E -2.95%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.72%EV -5.42%E -1.73%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 25.64%EV -9.08%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 14:20
Betsson2.08I 48.08%NM 44.19%EV -6.61%E -3.18%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -9.63%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.18%EV -8.83%E -2.42%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-03 14:15
NordicBet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.19%EV -6.61%E -3.18%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -9.63%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.18%EV -8.83%E -2.42%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-03 14:15
Betway2.05I 48.78%NM 46.00%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.58%EV -0.091%E -0.023%K -0.030%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 14:25
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-03 14:25
PointsBet (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-03 13:20
betfred_uk2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -9.63%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -6.34%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-03 13:20
Bet Right2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -9.63%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 13:20
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.61%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.00%EV -11.14%E -3.78%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -6.34%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 14:15
888sport2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 14:10
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 14:21
888sport (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 14:10
Mr Green (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-03 14:20
Betr (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -9.63%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-03 13:20
Everygame2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.77%EV -8.13%E -2.67%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-03 14:15
Neds2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -9.63%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-03 13:20
Ladbrokes (UK)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -9.63%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-03 13:20
Ladbrokes (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -9.63%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-03 13:20
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -9.63%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-03 13:20
Bovada2.02I 49.50%NM 45.56%EV -9.30%E -4.60%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.22%EV -5.12%E -1.62%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -8.83%E -2.42%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-03 14:25
BetUS2.02I 49.50%NM 45.56%EV -9.30%E -4.60%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.22%EV -5.12%E -1.62%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -8.83%E -2.42%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-03 14:21
PlayUp2.02I 49.50%NM 44.60%EV -9.30%E -4.60%K -9.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.03%EV -9.63%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.38%EV -11.33%E -3.19%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-03 14:20
1xBet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.78%EV -10.20%E -5.10%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -3.61%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -2.59%E -0.664%K -0.893%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 14:25
SportsBet2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -10.20%E -5.10%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 14:25
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -10.20%E -5.10%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.62%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -7.58%E -2.05%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-03 14:20
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -10.20%E -5.10%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.63%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-03 13:20
Betclic (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.71%EV -10.20%E -5.10%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.31%EV -11.14%E -3.78%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.98%EV -10.58%E -2.96%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-03 14:15
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.20%E -5.10%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -9.63%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 14:25
Winamax (FR)1.98I 50.51%NM 44.55%EV -11.10%E -5.60%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.95%EV -14.15%E -4.97%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.50%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-03 14:15
Unibet (FR)1.96I 51.02%NM 45.50%EV -11.99%E -6.12%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -9.63%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -10.08%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-03 14:21
BoyleSports1.95I 51.28%NM 44.37%EV -12.44%E -6.38%K -13.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.90%EV -15.66%E -5.59%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.72%EV -12.58%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-03 14:05
NetBet (FR)1.93I 51.81%NM 45.36%EV -13.34%E -6.91%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 29.98%EV -12.04%E -4.12%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.66%EV -11.33%E -3.19%K -4.44%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-03 14:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 44.25%EV -14.24%E -7.45%K -15.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.34%EV -13.25%E -4.60%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.41%EV -20.07%E -6.27%K -9.12%G +0.000%18.3%2026-05-03 13:22
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.16I 46.30%NM 45.77%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-05-03 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.16I 46.30%NM 45.77%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-05-03 14:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.16I 46.30%NM 45.77%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-05-03 14:20
Matchbook2.16I 46.30%NM 45.77%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.72%1.1%2026-05-03 14:20
Smarkets2.16I 46.30%NM 45.43%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.73%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.84%1.9%2026-05-03 14:20