La escuela de los momios

Östersunds FK v Norrby IF

Inicio: 2026-04-11 15:00 UTC

Final: Östersunds FK 1–1 Norrby IF

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Östersunds FK (Local)

Predicción 50.87%1.97momio equitativo
EV +5.81%
Ventaja +2.79%
Kelly +5.38%
Crecimiento +0.312%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.08

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.59%50.53%50.88%53.01%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.701.841.832.0858.82%54.47%54.64%48.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Norrby IF (Visitante)

Predicción 21.50%4.65momio equitativo
EV +4.50%
Ventaja +0.927%
Kelly +1.17%
Crecimiento +0.053%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.86

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.58%21.88%21.43%26.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.454.074.104.8628.99%24.58%24.39%20.58%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.63%3.62momio equitativo
EV +0.848%
Ventaja +0.232%
Kelly +0.320%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.10%27.59%27.69%29.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.343.383.6533.33%29.96%29.59%27.40%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Betsson2.08I 48.08%NM 44.59%EV +5.81%E +2.79%K +5.38%G +0.312%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.88%EV -25.82%E -7.48%K -10.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 14:34
LeoVegas (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.56%EV -1.83%E -0.946%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -18.29%E -4.81%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 14:15
Unibet (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.56%EV -1.83%E -0.946%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -18.29%E -4.81%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 14:14
Svenska Spel1.93I 51.81%NM 48.56%EV -1.83%E -0.946%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -18.29%E -4.81%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 14:15
ATG (SE)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.56%EV -1.83%E -0.946%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -18.29%E -4.81%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 14:14
Unibet1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%EV -3.86%E -2.04%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -19.37%E -5.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 14:30
Unibet (NL)1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%EV -3.86%E -2.04%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -19.37%E -5.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 14:15
Virgin Bet1.89I 52.91%NM 48.74%EV -3.86%E -2.04%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -19.37%E -5.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 14:15
Grosvenor1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -4.37%E -2.32%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -19.37%E -5.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-10 18:00
Casumo1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -4.37%E -2.32%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -19.37%E -5.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-10 18:00
TABtouch1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -4.37%E -2.32%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -19.37%E -5.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-10 18:01
betPARX1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -4.37%E -2.32%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -19.37%E -5.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-10 18:01
LeoVegas1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -4.37%E -2.32%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -19.37%E -5.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -4.68%E -1.36%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-10 18:00
BetRivers1.88I 53.19%NM 48.52%EV -4.37%E -2.32%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -20.44%E -5.52%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 14:14
DraftKings1.87I 53.48%NM 50.63%EV -4.88%E -2.61%K -5.61%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.52%EV -5.39%E -1.22%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 14:45
Coolbet1.86I 53.76%NM 51.22%EV -5.39%E -2.90%K -6.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%EV -9.69%E -2.31%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.10%EV +0.848%E +0.232%K +0.320%G +0.003%5.0%2026-04-11 14:39
Unibet (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 50.39%EV -5.89%E -3.19%K -6.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -9.69%E -2.31%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 14:54
NordicBet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.25%EV -5.89%E -3.19%K -6.93%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.40%EV -10.76%E -2.59%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 14:55
Bovada1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -5.89%E -3.19%K -6.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -13.99%E -3.50%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-11 14:42
LowVig.ag1.84I 54.35%NM 49.93%EV -6.40%E -3.48%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -7.54%E -1.75%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -11.59%E -3.62%K -5.27%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 14:45
BetOnline.ag1.84I 54.35%NM 49.93%EV -6.40%E -3.48%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -7.54%E -1.75%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -11.59%E -3.62%K -5.27%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 14:45
BetAnything1.84I 54.35%NM 49.93%EV -6.40%E -3.48%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.36%EV -7.54%E -1.75%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -11.59%E -3.62%K -5.27%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 14:45
LiveScore Bet1.84I 54.35%NM 48.70%EV -6.40%E -3.48%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.55%EV -21.52%E -5.89%K -8.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.75%EV -7.44%E -2.22%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-11 14:14
BetMGM1.83I 54.64%NM 49.49%EV -6.91%E -3.78%K -8.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -13.99%E -3.50%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.54%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-11 14:44
Coral1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -6.91%E -3.78%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -16.14%E -4.14%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -11.59%E -3.62%K -5.27%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-11 14:45
Ladbrokes (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 48.99%EV -6.91%E -3.78%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -16.14%E -4.14%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.02%EV -11.59%E -3.62%K -5.27%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-11 14:45
Pinnacle1.82I 54.95%NM 52.28%EV -7.42%E -4.08%K -9.05%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.58%EV +4.50%E +0.927%K +1.17%G +0.053%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.15%EV -6.61%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 14:45
Marathon Bet1.82I 54.95%NM 50.89%EV -7.42%E -4.08%K -9.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -5.39%E -1.22%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 14:45
PlayUp1.82I 54.95%NM 49.69%EV -7.42%E -4.08%K -9.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.06%EV -11.84%E -2.89%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%EV -11.59%E -3.62%K -5.27%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-11 14:40
1xBet1.81I 55.25%NM 51.69%EV -7.93%E -4.38%K -9.79%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -5.39%E -1.22%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.04%EV -4.40%E -1.27%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-11 14:54
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 52.06%EV -8.44%E -4.69%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -1.09%E -0.236%K -0.302%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 14:54
Bet Victor1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -8.44%E -4.69%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -6.89%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -3.30%E -0.942%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 14:54
Betway1.80I 55.56%NM 51.41%EV -8.44%E -4.69%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.37%EV -6.89%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 14:44
PointsBet (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.20%EV -8.44%E -4.69%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -8.61%E -2.03%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-11 14:54
BetUS1.80I 55.56%NM 51.13%EV -8.44%E -4.69%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -7.54%E -1.75%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%EV -7.44%E -2.22%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-11 14:55
888sport1.80I 55.56%NM 50.09%EV -8.44%E -4.69%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.82%EV -6.89%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.09%EV -14.35%E -4.63%K -6.83%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-11 14:55
Mr Green (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 49.90%EV -8.44%E -4.69%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -13.99%E -3.50%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.54%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-11 14:45
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 49.90%EV -8.44%E -4.69%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -13.99%E -3.50%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.54%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-11 14:44
888sport (SE)1.80I 55.56%NM 49.90%EV -8.44%E -4.69%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -13.99%E -3.50%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.54%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-11 14:45
Betr (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 50.67%EV -9.46%E -5.31%K -12.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.00%EV -11.84%E -2.89%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -8.82%E -2.67%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-11 14:54
Everygame1.75I 57.14%NM 51.66%EV -10.98%E -6.28%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -3.24%E -0.720%K -0.925%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -11.59%E -3.62%K -5.27%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-11 14:55
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.48%EV -10.98%E -6.28%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.80%EV -6.89%E -1.59%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.72%EV -10.20%E -3.14%K -4.54%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-11 14:54
BoyleSports1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -10.98%E -6.28%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -9.69%E -2.31%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -11.59%E -3.62%K -5.27%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-11 14:44
Sky Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 50.47%EV -10.98%E -6.28%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.03%EV -9.69%E -2.31%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -14.35%E -4.63%K -6.83%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-11 14:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 49.07%EV -12.00%E -6.94%K -16.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.64%EV -19.37%E -5.16%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.30%EV -17.11%E -5.70%K -8.56%G +0.000%17.8%2026-04-11 14:54
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 50.91%EV -12.51%E -7.27%K -17.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.85%EV -9.69%E -2.31%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.25%EV -14.35%E -4.63%K -6.83%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-11 14:55
Tipico (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.01%EV -13.52%E -7.96%K -19.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.48%EV -5.39%E -1.22%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -6.06%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-11 14:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.92I 52.08%NM 51.74%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.27%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.98%0.7%2026-04-11 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 51.87%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.22%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.91%0.9%2026-04-11 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.00%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.16%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.83%1.2%2026-04-11 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.00%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.16%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.83%1.2%2026-04-11 14:55