Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Norrby IF v Ljungskile SK

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 11:00 UTC

Final: Norrby IF 2–1 Ljungskile SK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Norrby IF (Local)

Prediction 32.27%3.10fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -0.515%
Kelly -0.766%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.90%32.25%32.29%33.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.872.883.0538.17%34.80%34.72%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ljungskile SK (Visit)

Prediction 40.22%2.49fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.79%40.20%40.20%41.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.262.282.4247.62%44.15%43.86%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.51%3.64fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.28%27.55%27.51%28.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.313.303.5033.33%30.18%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Norrby IF (Local): 32.27%; Ljungskile SK (Visit): 40.22%; Draw: 27.51%. For Norrby IF (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.05, with an expected value of -1.57%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -1.57%E -0.515%K -0.766%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -7.49%E -3.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -7.85%E -2.34%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-23 10:39
LowVig.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -1.57%E -0.515%K -0.766%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -7.49%E -3.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -7.85%E -2.34%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-23 10:40
BetAnything🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -1.57%E -0.515%K -0.766%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -7.49%E -3.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -7.85%E -2.34%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-23 10:39
Pinnacle🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.79%EV -3.18%E -1.06%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.74%EV -3.47%E -1.45%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.47%EV -7.85%E -2.34%K -3.34%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 10:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -3.18%E -1.06%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.14%EV -8.30%E -3.64%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 11:20
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -3.18%E -1.06%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.14%EV -8.30%E -3.64%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 11:20
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -3.18%E -1.06%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.14%EV -8.30%E -3.64%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 11:25
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -3.18%E -1.06%K -1.59%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.14%EV -8.30%E -3.64%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 11:25
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -4.80%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.48%E -2.33%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 10:49
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -4.80%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -10.31%E -4.62%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-23 10:19
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -4.80%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -10.31%E -4.62%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-23 10:19
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -4.80%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -10.31%E -4.62%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-23 10:19
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -4.80%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -10.31%E -4.62%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-23 10:19
BetRivers🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -4.80%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -10.31%E -4.62%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-23 10:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -4.80%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -10.31%E -4.62%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-23 10:19
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -4.80%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -10.31%E -4.62%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-23 10:19
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -4.80%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -10.31%E -4.62%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-23 10:20
betPARX🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -4.80%E -1.63%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.12%EV -10.31%E -4.62%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-23 10:20
1xBet🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 31.79%EV -5.44%E -1.86%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.98%EV -6.29%E -2.70%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-23 10:40
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.77%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.27%EV -2.67%E -1.10%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-19 20:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.12%EV -7.09%E -3.07%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.92%EV -8.67%E -2.61%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-23 10:50
Bovada🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -9.50%E -4.22%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 10:49
BetUS🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -6.41%E -2.21%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -9.50%E -4.22%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-23 10:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.52%EV -7.06%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -7.49%E -3.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.72%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-23 02:49
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.52%EV -7.06%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -7.49%E -3.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.72%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-23 10:50
Betway🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.44%EV -7.06%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -4.28%E -1.80%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-23 10:39
Betsson🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -7.06%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.56%EV -7.49%E -3.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -5.10%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 02:49
NordicBet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -7.06%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.56%EV -7.49%E -3.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -5.10%E -1.48%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-23 02:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.18%EV -7.06%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.19%EV -12.32%E -5.65%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.63%EV -10.60%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-23 10:19
FanDuel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -8.03%E -2.82%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -7.49%E -3.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -3.72%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 17:24
Everygame🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -8.03%E -2.82%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.59%EV -7.49%E -3.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -11.97%E -3.74%K -5.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-23 10:39
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -8.03%E -2.82%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.41%EV -7.49%E -3.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -13.35%E -4.24%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-23 10:39
BetMGM🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -8.03%E -2.82%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.01%EV -11.52%E -5.23%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-23 10:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -9.64%E -3.44%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -9.50%E -4.22%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -3.72%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-18 11:15
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -9.64%E -3.44%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -11.52%E -5.23%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -10.60%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-23 10:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -9.64%E -3.44%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -11.52%E -5.23%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -10.60%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-23 10:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -11.25%E -4.09%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -9.50%E -4.22%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-22 12:00
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -11.25%E -4.09%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -11.52%E -5.23%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-17 17:24
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -11.25%E -4.09%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -11.52%E -5.23%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-23 08:10
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.25%E -4.09%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -7.49%E -3.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -14.73%E -4.75%K -7.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-23 07:49
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.25%E -4.09%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -7.49%E -3.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -14.73%E -4.75%K -7.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-23 07:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.25%E -4.09%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -7.49%E -3.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -14.73%E -4.75%K -7.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-23 07:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -11.25%E -4.09%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -7.49%E -3.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -14.73%E -4.75%K -7.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-23 07:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -12.87%E -4.77%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -7.49%E -3.26%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-23 10:19
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -12.87%E -4.77%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -11.52%E -5.23%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-20 11:18
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.56%EV -12.87%E -4.77%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.96%EV -11.52%E -5.23%K -9.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.47%EV -11.97%E -3.74%K -5.44%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-23 10:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.39%EV -12.87%E -4.77%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.36%EV -15.54%E -7.40%K -14.13%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.25%EV -17.48%E -5.83%K -8.74%G +0.000%18.0%2026-05-17 17:25
SportsBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.19%EV -15.45%E -5.90%K -9.54%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.45%EV -13.53%E -6.29%K -11.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.35%EV -9.22%E -2.80%K -4.01%G +0.000%15.0%2026-05-23 08:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook3.15I 31.75%NM 31.48%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.54%0.8%2026-05-23 10:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.82%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.82%1.2%2026-05-23 10:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.82%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.82%1.2%2026-05-23 10:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.36%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.82%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.82%1.2%2026-05-23 10:40