Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

IFK Värnamo v Östersunds FK

2026-08-16 11:00 UTC — Superettan - Sweden

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IFK Värnamo (Local)

Prediction 35.84%2.79fair odd
EV -5.73%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -3.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.55%35.84%35.84%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.552.552.6340.82%39.14%39.22%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Östersunds FK (Visit)

Prediction 36.36%2.75fair odd
EV -6.20%
Edge -2.40%
Kelly -3.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.07%36.36%36.36%36.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.502.482.5842.02%40.07%40.32%38.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.80%3.60fair odd
EV -5.47%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -2.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.27%27.80%27.80%27.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.293.253.4031.75%30.41%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: IFK Värnamo (Local): 35.84%; Östersunds FK (Visit): 36.36%; Draw: 27.80%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.60. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.40, with an expected value of -5.47%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.65%EV -5.73%E -2.18%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -7.29%E -2.86%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.65%EV -5.73%E -2.18%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -7.29%E -2.86%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.65%EV -5.73%E -2.18%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -7.29%E -2.86%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.65%EV -5.73%E -2.18%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -7.29%E -2.86%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -5.47%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 11:20
NordicBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.10%EV -7.53%E -2.92%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.10%EV -6.20%E -2.40%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.86%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 11:20
Betsson🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.10%EV -7.53%E -2.92%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.10%EV -6.20%E -2.40%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -6.86%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 11:20
1xBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -8.60%E -3.37%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -7.29%E -2.86%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 11:49
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.55%EV -8.60%E -3.37%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.55%EV -9.84%E -3.97%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 11:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.55%EV -8.60%E -3.37%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.55%EV -9.84%E -3.97%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 11:19
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.55%EV -8.60%E -3.37%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.55%EV -9.84%E -3.97%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 11:20
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.55%EV -8.60%E -3.37%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.55%EV -9.84%E -3.97%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 11:20
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.55%EV -8.60%E -3.37%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.55%EV -9.84%E -3.97%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 11:20
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.55%EV -8.60%E -3.37%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.55%EV -9.84%E -3.97%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -9.64%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 11:20
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -10.39%E -4.16%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -10.93%E -4.46%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -8.25%E -2.50%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-09 11:19
BetRivers🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.59%EV -10.39%E -4.16%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.61%EV -11.66%E -4.80%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -11.03%E -3.45%K -5.02%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-09 11:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.62%EV -12.19%E -4.97%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.67%EV -13.47%E -5.66%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.71%EV -12.42%E -3.94%K -5.78%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-09 11:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.62%EV -12.19%E -4.97%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.67%EV -13.47%E -5.66%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.71%EV -12.42%E -3.94%K -5.78%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-09 11:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.