La escuela de los momios

Falkenbergs FF v Helsingborgs IF

Inicio: 2026-07-21 17:00 UTC

Final: Falkenbergs FF 2–3 Helsingborgs IF

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Falkenbergs FF (Local)

Predicción 45.27%2.21momio equitativo
EV -1.30%
Ventaja -0.598%
Kelly -1.11%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.18

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.99%45.49%45.12%47.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.882.002.002.1853.19%49.89%50.00%45.87%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Helsingborgs IF (Visitante)

Predicción 28.54%3.50momio equitativo
EV +1.32%
Ventaja +0.371%
Kelly +0.516%
Crecimiento +0.007%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.19%28.36%28.70%30.96%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.903.263.203.5534.48%30.65%31.25%28.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.19%3.82momio equitativo
EV -0.489%
Ventaja -0.129%
Kelly -0.175%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.76%26.15%26.18%27.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.513.503.8030.30%28.53%28.57%26.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
LeoVegas (SE)1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -12.17%E -6.27%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV +1.32%E +0.371%K +0.516%G +0.007%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-21 16:40
Unibet (SE)1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -12.17%E -6.27%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV +1.32%E +0.371%K +0.516%G +0.007%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-21 16:40
Svenska Spel1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -12.17%E -6.27%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV +1.32%E +0.371%K +0.516%G +0.007%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-21 16:40
ATG (SE)1.94I 51.55%NM 47.95%EV -12.17%E -6.27%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV +1.32%E +0.371%K +0.516%G +0.007%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-21 16:40
Grosvenor1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -13.08%E -6.81%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -0.112%E -0.032%K -0.045%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-21 16:40
TABtouch1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -13.08%E -6.81%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -0.112%E -0.032%K -0.045%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-21 16:40
Virgin Bet1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -13.08%E -6.81%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -0.112%E -0.032%K -0.045%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-21 16:40
Unibet (NL)1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -13.08%E -6.81%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -0.112%E -0.032%K -0.045%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-21 16:40
Unibet1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -13.08%E -6.81%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -0.112%E -0.032%K -0.045%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-21 16:40
Casumo1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -13.08%E -6.81%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -0.112%E -0.032%K -0.045%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-21 16:40
betPARX1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -13.08%E -6.81%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -0.112%E -0.032%K -0.045%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-21 16:40
BetRivers1.91I 52.36%NM 47.99%EV -13.53%E -7.08%K -14.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -0.112%E -0.032%K -0.045%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.82%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-21 16:40
Pinnacle2.05I 48.78%NM 46.53%EV -7.19%E -3.51%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.33%EV -0.397%E -0.114%K -0.159%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.13%EV -4.42%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-21 16:45
Coolbet2.02I 49.50%NM 47.23%EV -8.55%E -4.23%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.66%EV -1.54%E -0.446%K -0.628%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.11%EV -0.489%E -0.129%K -0.175%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-21 16:40
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 47.58%EV -13.98%E -7.36%K -15.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -2.97%E -0.872%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-21 16:55
LiveScore Bet1.88I 53.19%NM 47.84%EV -14.89%E -7.92%K -16.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.46%EV -2.97%E -0.872%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-21 16:40
FanDuel2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -7.19%E -3.51%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -5.82%E -1.76%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-21 16:55
Marathon Bet2.06I 48.54%NM 44.98%EV -6.74%E -3.27%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.25%EV -6.39%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.78%EV -9.39%E -2.71%K -3.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-21 16:55
BetOnline.ag2.14I 46.73%NM 43.88%EV -3.11%E -1.46%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -9.65%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-21 16:55
BetUS2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -9.45%E -4.73%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-21 16:40
Everygame2.00I 50.00%NM 45.56%EV -9.45%E -4.73%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -7.25%E -2.23%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -9.65%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-21 16:40
DraftKings2.15I 46.51%NM 43.91%EV -2.66%E -1.24%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-21 16:55
Betsson2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -5.83%E -2.80%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -4.42%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-21 16:40
NordicBet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.05%EV -5.83%E -2.80%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -4.42%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-21 16:40
Unibet (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -5.83%E -2.80%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-21 16:40
Betway2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.19%E -3.51%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-21 16:55
PointsBet (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -9.45%E -4.73%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-21 16:40
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -7.19%E -3.51%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -10.96%E -3.22%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-21 16:40
Bovada2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -9.45%E -4.73%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-21 16:54
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -9.45%E -4.73%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.96%E -3.22%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-21 16:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -9.45%E -4.73%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -8.67%E -2.71%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -10.96%E -3.22%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-21 16:50
PlayUp2.05I 48.78%NM 44.19%EV -7.19%E -3.51%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.76%EV -10.10%E -3.21%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -12.27%E -3.66%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-21 16:40
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 46.28%EV -11.72%E -6.01%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.65%EV -10.10%E -3.21%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.07%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-21 16:40
Bet Victor2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -7.19%E -3.51%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.72%EV -10.96%E -3.51%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -3.11%E -0.840%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-21 16:55
betano_uk2.05I 48.78%NM 45.23%EV -7.19%E -3.51%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.72%EV -10.96%E -3.51%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -3.11%E -0.840%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-21 16:55
LowVig.ag2.18I 45.87%NM 42.99%EV -1.30%E -0.598%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-21 16:55
BetAnything2.18I 45.87%NM 42.99%EV -1.30%E -0.598%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-21 16:55
betfred_uk2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -9.45%E -4.73%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-21 16:40
Sky Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.45%E -4.73%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-21 16:40
888sport2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.45%E -4.73%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-21 16:40
William Hill2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.45%E -4.73%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-21 16:40
888sport (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.45%E -4.73%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-21 16:40
Mr Green (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.45%E -4.73%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-21 16:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.45%E -4.73%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-21 16:40
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.45%E -4.73%K -9.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-21 16:40
SportsBet1.97I 50.76%NM 44.79%EV -10.81%E -5.49%K -11.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -11.53%E -3.72%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.74%EV -13.58%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-21 16:50
LeoVegas2.02I 49.50%NM 44.65%EV -8.55%E -4.23%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.57%EV -12.95%E -4.25%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.77%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-21 16:55
1xBet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.49%EV -2.66%E -1.24%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.96%EV -13.81%E -4.57%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.55%EV -4.16%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-21 16:55
BoyleSports1.91I 52.36%NM 45.37%EV -13.53%E -7.08%K -14.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.88%EV -17.24%E -5.94%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.76%EV -8.35%E -2.38%K -3.34%G +0.000%15.4%2026-07-21 16:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.37%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-07-21 16:55
Matchbook2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.37%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-07-21 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.55%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.97%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-07-21 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.55%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.97%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-07-21 16:50