Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malmo FF v Mjällby AIF

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 12:00 UTC

Final: Malmo FF 2–3 Mjällby AIF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malmo FF (Local)

Prediction 36.46%2.74fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -0.856%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.48%36.47%36.54%38.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.282.512.522.6843.86%39.83%39.60%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mjällby AIF (Visit)

Prediction 35.32%2.83fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.391%
Kelly -0.608%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.15%35.29%35.26%36.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.642.652.8041.67%37.84%37.74%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.22%3.54fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -0.766%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.67%28.24%28.21%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.243.253.4534.72%30.84%30.77%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Malmo FF (Local): 36.46%; Mjällby AIF (Visit): 35.32%; Draw: 28.22%. For Mjällby AIF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.83. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -1.09%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.50%EV -2.29%E -0.856%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.23%EV -4.63%E -1.71%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.27%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 11:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.50%EV -2.29%E -0.856%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.23%EV -4.63%E -1.71%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.27%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 11:50
BetUS🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.50%EV -2.29%E -0.856%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.23%EV -4.63%E -1.71%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.27%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 11:50
BetAnything🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.50%EV -2.29%E -0.856%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.23%EV -4.63%E -1.71%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.27%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 11:50
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -3.39%E -1.28%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -9.93%E -3.89%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 11:55
Bovada🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.54%EV -3.75%E -1.42%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.14%EV -5.69%E -2.13%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 11:54
Pinnacle🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.49%EV -4.12%E -1.57%K -2.53%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.28%EV -3.92%E -1.44%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.23%EV -4.05%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-03 11:50
Coolbet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.73%EV -4.48%E -1.71%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.38%EV -3.92%E -1.44%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.89%EV -2.64%E -0.766%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-03 11:30
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -4.48%E -1.71%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.96%EV -5.33%E -1.99%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 11:55
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -4.48%E -1.71%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.96%EV -5.33%E -1.99%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.28%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 11:55
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -4.48%E -1.71%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -7.45%E -2.84%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 11:55
GTbets🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.54%EV -5.21%E -2.00%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.67%EV -3.21%E -1.17%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.79%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 11:55
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.11%EV -5.21%E -2.00%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.43%EV -6.39%E -2.41%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 11:51
Everygame🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -5.21%E -2.00%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -6.39%E -2.41%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 11:55
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -5.21%E -2.00%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -8.16%E -3.14%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-03 11:50
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -5.21%E -2.00%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -8.16%E -3.14%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-03 11:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -5.21%E -2.00%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -8.16%E -3.14%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-03 11:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -5.21%E -2.00%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -8.16%E -3.14%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-03 11:50
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -5.21%E -2.00%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -13.46%E -5.49%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-03 11:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -5.21%E -2.00%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -13.46%E -5.49%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-03 11:56
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -5.21%E -2.00%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -13.46%E -5.49%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-03 11:55
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -5.21%E -2.00%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -13.46%E -5.49%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-03 11:55
1xBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.19%EV -5.94%E -2.30%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.19%EV -8.87%E -3.44%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.62%EV -4.62%E -1.37%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 11:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -7.03%E -2.76%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -6.39%E -2.41%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -4.05%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 11:50
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.56%EV -7.03%E -2.76%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.18%EV -6.39%E -2.41%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 11:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -7.03%E -2.76%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -9.93%E -3.89%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -4.05%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-03 11:50
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -7.03%E -2.76%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -9.93%E -3.89%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 11:50
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.33%EV -7.03%E -2.76%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.65%EV -8.16%E -3.14%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.03%EV -15.34%E -5.11%K -7.67%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-03 11:55
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -8.86%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -8.16%E -3.14%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-03 11:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -8.86%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -8.16%E -3.14%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-03 11:55
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -8.86%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -8.16%E -3.14%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-03 11:50
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -8.86%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -8.16%E -3.14%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-03 11:53
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.86%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -8.16%E -3.14%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 11:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.86%E -3.54%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -11.69%E -4.68%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-03 11:50
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.10%EV -10.68%E -4.36%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.37%EV -11.69%E -4.68%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-03 11:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.56%EV -11.41%E -4.69%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -1.09%E -0.391%K -0.608%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 11:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.56%EV -11.41%E -4.69%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -1.09%E -0.391%K -0.608%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 11:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.56%EV -11.41%E -4.69%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -1.09%E -0.391%K -0.608%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 11:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.56%EV -11.41%E -4.69%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.47%EV -1.09%E -0.391%K -0.608%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.47%E -1.63%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-03 11:35
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -12.50%E -5.21%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -1.09%E -0.391%K -0.608%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 11:35
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -12.50%E -5.21%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -1.09%E -0.391%K -0.608%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 11:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -12.50%E -5.21%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -1.09%E -0.391%K -0.608%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 11:35
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -12.50%E -5.21%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -1.09%E -0.391%K -0.608%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 11:35
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -12.50%E -5.21%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -1.09%E -0.391%K -0.608%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 11:35
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -12.50%E -5.21%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -1.09%E -0.391%K -0.608%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 11:35
betPARX🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -12.50%E -5.21%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -1.09%E -0.391%K -0.608%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.88%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 11:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -12.50%E -5.21%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -9.93%E -3.89%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -4.05%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-03 11:50
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.57%EV -12.50%E -5.21%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.11%EV -11.69%E -4.68%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-03 11:56
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.29%EV -12.50%E -5.21%K -8.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.29%EV -15.22%E -6.34%K -10.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -18.73%E -6.50%K -9.96%G +0.000%18.1%2026-05-03 11:50
TABtouch🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -13.23%E -5.56%K -9.59%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -2.86%E -1.04%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 11:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.72%EV -13.60%E -5.74%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 34.78%EV -9.22%E -3.59%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.50%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-03 11:48
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -14.33%E -6.10%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -2.86%E -1.04%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 11:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -14.33%E -6.10%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -2.86%E -1.04%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 11:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.28%EV -14.33%E -6.10%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.76%EV -13.46%E -5.49%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.96%EV -8.29%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-03 11:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.16%EV -16.15%E -7.02%K -12.42%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.42%EV -9.93%E -3.89%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.43%EV -9.70%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-03 11:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.70%EV -16.88%E -7.40%K -13.19%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.29%EV -6.39%E -2.41%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.01%EV -11.11%E -3.53%K -5.17%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-03 11:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.78I 35.97%NM 35.69%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.95%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.35%0.8%2026-05-03 11:56
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.76I 36.23%NM 35.91%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.17%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.92%0.9%2026-05-03 11:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.74I 36.50%NM 36.17%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.91%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.92%0.9%2026-05-03 11:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.60%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.12%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-05-03 11:56
Smarkets2.70I 37.04%NM 35.88%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.62%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.50%3.2%2026-05-03 11:56