La escuela de los momios

Malmo FF v IFK Goteborg

Inicio: 2026-07-12 12:00 UTC

Final: Malmo FF 4–0 IFK Goteborg

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Malmo FF (Local)

Predicción 48.62%2.06momio equitativo
EV -4.71%
Ventaja -2.40%
Kelly -4.91%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.96

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.87%48.95%48.51%52.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.701.881.901.9658.82%53.28%52.63%51.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

IFK Goteborg (Visitante)

Predicción 27.11%3.69momio equitativo
EV +13.85%
Ventaja +3.30%
Kelly +4.33%
Crecimiento +0.599%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.27%26.75%27.18%28.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.523.454.2032.26%28.41%28.99%23.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.28%4.12momio equitativo
EV -0.467%
Ventaja -0.114%
Kelly -0.151%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.45%24.30%24.31%25.58%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.403.753.754.1029.41%26.69%26.67%24.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 51.99%EV -8.60%E -4.58%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.27%EV +13.85%E +3.30%K +4.33%G +0.599%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.74%EV -4.11%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-12 11:39
Svenska Spel1.88I 53.19%NM 51.99%EV -8.60%E -4.58%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.27%EV +13.85%E +3.30%K +4.33%G +0.599%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.74%EV -4.11%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-12 11:39
ATG (SE)1.88I 53.19%NM 51.99%EV -8.60%E -4.58%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.27%EV +13.85%E +3.30%K +4.33%G +0.599%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.74%EV -4.11%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%2.3%2026-07-12 11:39
Coolbet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.82%EV -11.52%E -6.33%K -14.05%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.74%EV +9.78%E +2.42%K +3.21%G +0.314%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.45%EV -0.467%E -0.114%K -0.151%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-12 11:34
LeoVegas (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.08%EV -11.03%E -6.03%K -13.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV +7.07%E +1.79%K +2.40%G +0.170%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -10.18%E -2.75%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-12 11:39
Grosvenor1.83I 54.64%NM 51.08%EV -11.03%E -6.03%K -13.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV +7.07%E +1.79%K +2.40%G +0.170%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -10.18%E -2.75%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-12 11:40
Casumo1.81I 55.25%NM 50.86%EV -12.00%E -6.63%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV +4.36%E +1.13%K +1.53%G +0.067%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -11.39%E -3.12%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-12 11:40
Unibet1.81I 55.25%NM 50.86%EV -12.00%E -6.63%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV +4.36%E +1.13%K +1.53%G +0.067%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -11.39%E -3.12%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-12 11:40
Unibet (NL)1.81I 55.25%NM 50.86%EV -12.00%E -6.63%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV +4.36%E +1.13%K +1.53%G +0.067%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -11.39%E -3.12%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-12 11:40
betPARX1.81I 55.25%NM 50.86%EV -12.00%E -6.63%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV +4.36%E +1.13%K +1.53%G +0.067%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -11.39%E -3.12%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-12 11:39
BetRivers1.78I 56.18%NM 50.61%EV -13.46%E -7.56%K -17.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.02%EV +1.65%E +0.441%K +0.601%G +0.010%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.37%EV -13.82%E -3.89%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-12 11:39
TABtouch1.77I 56.50%NM 50.75%EV -13.95%E -7.88%K -18.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV +1.65%E +0.441%K +0.601%G +0.010%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.30%EV -13.82%E -3.89%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-12 11:39
LiveScore Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 50.68%EV -14.92%E -8.53%K -19.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV +0.297%E +0.080%K +0.110%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.34%EV -15.03%E -4.30%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-12 11:39
Virgin Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 50.68%EV -14.92%E -8.53%K -19.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV +0.297%E +0.080%K +0.110%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.34%EV -15.03%E -4.30%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-12 11:40
GTbets1.93I 51.81%NM 48.80%EV -6.17%E -3.20%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.95%EV -1.60%E -0.441%K -0.609%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.25%EV -9.45%E -2.53%K -3.46%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 08:14
FanDuel1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -7.14%E -3.74%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -2.41%E -0.671%K -0.928%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -5.32%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-12 11:55
NordicBet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.14%EV -10.06%E -5.44%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -2.41%E -0.671%K -0.928%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.09%EV -6.54%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 10:55
Betsson1.85I 54.05%NM 50.14%EV -10.06%E -5.44%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -2.41%E -0.671%K -0.928%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.09%EV -6.54%E -1.70%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-12 10:54
PMU (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 50.70%EV -17.35%E -10.21%K -24.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.94%EV -2.41%E -0.671%K -0.928%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.35%EV -17.46%E -5.14%K -7.28%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-12 11:39
PlayUp1.82I 54.95%NM 49.72%EV -11.52%E -6.33%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.49%EV -3.77%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -11.39%E -3.12%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-12 11:29
Pinnacle1.95I 51.28%NM 49.04%EV -5.20%E -2.67%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.17%EV -4.58%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.79%EV -2.41%E -0.599%K -0.798%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-12 11:55
1xBet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.52%EV -6.66%E -3.47%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.01%EV -4.58%E -1.30%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.47%EV -1.68%E -0.415%K -0.551%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-12 11:54
LowVig.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 48.48%EV -4.71%E -2.40%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.37%EV -5.32%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-12 11:54
BetOnline.ag1.96I 51.02%NM 48.48%EV -4.71%E -2.40%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.37%EV -5.32%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-12 11:55
BetAnything1.96I 51.02%NM 48.48%EV -4.71%E -2.40%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.37%EV -5.32%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-12 11:55
BetUS1.92I 52.08%NM 49.15%EV -6.66%E -3.47%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.96%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -4.11%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 11:54
SportsBet1.87I 53.48%NM 49.19%EV -9.09%E -4.86%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -8.96%E -2.39%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-12 11:54
Tipico (DE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -10.06%E -5.44%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -5.12%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-12 11:44
LeoVegas1.95I 51.28%NM 48.42%EV -5.20%E -2.67%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.48%E -1.88%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -5.32%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 11:04
DraftKings1.95I 51.28%NM 48.37%EV -5.20%E -2.67%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -4.11%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 11:10
Bovada1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -6.17%E -3.20%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.32%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-12 11:53
Unibet (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -5.20%E -2.67%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-12 09:14
PointsBet (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -7.14%E -3.74%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -5.32%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-12 11:24
Everygame1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -7.14%E -3.74%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -5.32%E -1.36%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-12 11:10
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -7.14%E -3.74%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-12 11:34
BetMGM1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -7.14%E -3.74%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -8.96%E -2.39%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-12 11:44
Paddy Power1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -10.06%E -5.44%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -10.18%E -2.75%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-12 11:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -10.06%E -5.44%K -11.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -7.84%E -2.30%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -10.18%E -2.75%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-12 11:54
Bet Right1.90I 52.63%NM 48.38%EV -7.63%E -4.02%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -9.19%E -2.74%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-12 11:24
Betclic (FR)1.87I 53.48%NM 48.18%EV -9.09%E -4.86%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 27.14%EV -10.00%E -3.01%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.68%EV -11.39%E -3.12%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-12 11:34
888sport1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -5.20%E -2.67%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -10.18%E -2.75%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-12 11:10
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -5.20%E -2.67%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -10.18%E -2.75%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-12 11:09
888sport (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -5.20%E -2.67%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -10.18%E -2.75%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-12 11:09
Mr Green (SE)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.22%EV -5.20%E -2.67%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.90%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -10.18%E -2.75%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-12 11:09
betfred_uk1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -7.63%E -4.02%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -8.96%E -2.39%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-12 11:29
Bet Victor1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -7.63%E -4.02%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -8.96%E -2.39%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-12 11:54
betano_uk1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -7.63%E -4.02%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -8.96%E -2.39%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-12 11:50
Unibet (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 48.50%EV -10.55%E -5.73%K -12.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.45%EV -11.39%E -3.12%K -4.30%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-12 11:34
Sky Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -11.03%E -6.03%K -13.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -10.55%E -3.20%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -12.61%E -3.50%K -4.85%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-12 11:55
Winamax (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 47.97%EV -7.63%E -4.02%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.04%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.99%EV -7.75%E -2.04%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-12 09:14
Betr (AU)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.08%EV -8.60%E -4.58%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -8.96%E -2.39%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-12 11:29
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -7.14%E -3.74%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -15.03%E -4.30%K -6.01%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-12 11:09
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -7.14%E -3.74%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -15.03%E -4.30%K -6.01%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-12 11:14
Ladbrokes (AU)1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -7.14%E -3.74%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -15.03%E -4.30%K -6.01%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-12 11:09
Neds1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -7.14%E -3.74%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.90%E -3.66%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -15.03%E -4.30%K -6.01%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-12 11:09
Winamax (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 47.89%EV -10.55%E -5.73%K -12.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.97%EV -14.61%E -4.64%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.14%EV -11.39%E -3.12%K -4.30%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-12 09:14
BoyleSports1.80I 55.56%NM 48.06%EV -12.49%E -6.94%K -15.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -15.97%E -5.15%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.03%EV -12.61%E -3.50%K -4.85%G +0.000%15.6%2026-07-12 11:29
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.40%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.26%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.34%0.2%2026-07-12 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.65%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.13%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%0.7%2026-07-12 11:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.65%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.13%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%0.7%2026-07-12 11:55
Matchbook2.00I 50.00%NM 49.65%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.13%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%0.7%2026-07-12 11:55
Smarkets1.99I 50.25%NM 49.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.16%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.9%2026-07-12 11:55