Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malmo FF v GAIS

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 14:30 UTC

Final: Malmo FF 3–1 GAIS

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

51 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malmo FF (Local)

Prediction 52.88%1.89fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -0.884%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.93%53.04%52.90%55.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.731.751.8662.50%57.90%57.14%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

GAIS (Visit)

Prediction 22.09%4.53fair odd
EV +1.63%
Edge +0.355%
Kelly +0.454%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.77%22.05%22.07%23.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.184.204.6026.32%23.91%23.81%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.03%4.00fair odd
EV +2.61%
Edge +0.636%
Kelly +0.841%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.40%24.91%25.03%27.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.723.704.1032.26%26.86%27.03%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Malmo FF (Local): 52.88%; GAIS (Visit): 22.09%; Draw: 25.03%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.00. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.61%.

Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.91%EV -5.87%E -3.30%K -7.53%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.25%EV +1.63%E +0.355%K +0.454%G +0.007%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.84%EV +2.61%E +0.636%K +0.841%G +0.022%2.3%2026-04-12 14:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 55.05%EV -6.40%E -3.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.18%EV +1.63%E +0.355%K +0.454%G +0.007%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.77%EV +2.61%E +0.636%K +0.841%G +0.022%2.6%2026-04-12 14:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 55.05%EV -6.40%E -3.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.18%EV +1.63%E +0.355%K +0.454%G +0.007%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.77%EV +2.61%E +0.636%K +0.841%G +0.022%2.6%2026-04-12 14:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%EV -9.05%E -5.26%K -12.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -0.575%E -0.128%K -0.164%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV +0.104%E +0.026%K +0.035%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-12 14:10
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.65%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.20%EV -0.354%E -0.079%K -0.101%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.15%EV -0.897%E -0.226%K -0.303%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-12 14:01
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.20%EV -11.16%E -6.64%K -16.42%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -3.89%E -0.894%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -1.15%E -0.290%K -0.389%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 14:10
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.20%EV -11.16%E -6.64%K -16.42%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -3.89%E -0.894%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -1.15%E -0.290%K -0.389%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 14:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.20%EV -11.16%E -6.64%K -16.42%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -3.89%E -0.894%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -1.15%E -0.290%K -0.389%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 14:09
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.20%EV -11.16%E -6.64%K -16.42%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -3.89%E -0.894%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -1.15%E -0.290%K -0.389%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 14:10
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.20%EV -11.16%E -6.64%K -16.42%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -3.89%E -0.894%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -1.15%E -0.290%K -0.389%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 14:10
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.35%EV -11.69%E -7.00%K -17.45%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.25%EV -3.89%E -0.894%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.40%EV -1.15%E -0.290%K -0.389%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-12 14:10
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.35%EV -11.69%E -7.00%K -17.45%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.25%EV -3.89%E -0.894%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.40%EV -1.15%E -0.290%K -0.389%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-12 14:10
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.33%EV -12.22%E -7.36%K -18.52%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.12%EV -3.89%E -0.894%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -2.40%E -0.615%K -0.827%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 14:10
Bovada🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.01%EV -4.29%E -2.37%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -11.62%E -2.91%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -3.65%E -0.948%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 12:58
Virgin Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.18%EV -12.75%E -7.73%K -19.61%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.17%EV -4.99%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.65%EV -3.65%E -0.948%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 14:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.18%EV -12.75%E -7.73%K -19.61%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.17%EV -4.99%E -1.16%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.65%EV -3.65%E -0.948%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 14:10
GTbets🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.48%EV -1.64%E -0.884%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.52%EV -10.08%E -2.48%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.00%EV -4.15%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-12 14:00
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.97%EV -6.40%E -3.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.48%EV -7.87%E -1.89%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.54%EV -4.40%E -1.15%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 14:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.85%EV -5.87%E -3.30%K -7.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -7.20%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -4.90%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-12 14:09
BetUS🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.27%EV -6.93%E -3.94%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -4.90%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 14:09
BetAnything🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.27%EV -6.93%E -3.94%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.06%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -4.90%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-12 14:10
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -9.58%E -5.60%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -0.575%E -0.128%K -0.164%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -4.90%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-12 14:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.96%EV -9.05%E -5.26%K -12.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.06%EV -12.73%E -3.22%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -4.90%E -1.29%K -1.75%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-12 14:10
Everygame🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -7.20%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -6.15%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-12 14:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.04%EV -15.39%E -9.62%K -25.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.48%EV -9.41%E -2.30%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.48%EV -6.15%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-12 14:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.92%EV -5.87%E -3.30%K -7.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -11.62%E -2.91%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -7.40%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-12 14:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.92%EV -5.87%E -3.30%K -7.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -11.62%E -2.91%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.98%EV -7.40%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-12 14:10
SportsBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%EV -10.10%E -5.94%K -14.44%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.20%EV -4.33%E -1.00%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -7.40%E -2.00%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 14:10
Coolbet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.15%EV -2.70%E -1.47%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.56%EV -1.68%E -0.378%K -0.487%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.29%EV -8.65%E -2.37%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-12 14:09
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.14%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -3.89%E -0.894%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -8.65%E -2.37%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-12 14:10
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.14%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -3.89%E -0.894%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -8.65%E -2.37%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-12 14:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.57%EV -11.16%E -6.64%K -16.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%EV -16.04%E -4.22%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.19%EV -8.65%E -2.37%K -3.27%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-12 14:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -6.40%E -3.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -9.91%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 14:10
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.27%EV -6.40%E -3.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.03%EV -7.20%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -9.91%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-12 14:09
Bet Right🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -7.20%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.91%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-12 14:10
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -11.62%E -2.91%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -9.91%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-12 14:01
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -11.62%E -2.91%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -9.91%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-12 14:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -11.62%E -2.91%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -9.91%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-12 14:01
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -11.62%E -2.91%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -9.91%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-12 14:01
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.71%EV -9.05%E -5.26%K -12.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.11%EV -9.41%E -2.30%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -9.91%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-12 14:10
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.28%EV -10.10%E -5.94%K -14.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -7.20%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -9.91%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-12 14:00
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.54%EV -11.69%E -7.00%K -17.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -16.04%E -4.22%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.37%EV -9.91%E -2.75%K -3.81%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-12 14:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.90%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.15%EV -9.41%E -2.30%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -12.41%E -3.55%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-12 14:10
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -10.10%E -5.94%K -14.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -11.62%E -2.91%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -12.41%E -3.55%K -4.96%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-12 14:01
Unibet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 52.63%EV -12.75%E -7.73%K -19.61%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.56%EV -14.94%E -3.88%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.81%EV -12.41%E -3.55%K -4.96%G +0.000%15.2%2026-04-12 14:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 52.61%EV -13.28%E -8.10%K -20.75%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 22.53%EV -15.38%E -4.02%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 24.86%EV -13.16%E -3.79%K -5.33%G +0.000%15.9%2026-04-12 14:08
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -13.83%E -3.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -14.91%E -4.39%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-12 14:01
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -13.83%E -3.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -14.91%E -4.39%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-12 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -13.83%E -3.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -14.91%E -4.39%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-12 14:00
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -7.46%E -4.26%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -13.83%E -3.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -14.91%E -4.39%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-12 13:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.12%EV -11.69%E -7.00%K -17.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.34%EV -11.62%E -2.91%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.54%EV -22.42%E -7.23%K -10.68%G +0.000%17.1%2026-04-12 14:01
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.82I 54.95%NM 54.52%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-04-12 14:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 54.52%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-04-12 14:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.82I 54.95%NM 54.52%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-04-12 14:10
Matchbook1.82I 54.95%NM 54.52%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-04-12 14:10
Smarkets1.81I 55.25%NM 54.00%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.25%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.75%2.3%2026-04-12 14:10