Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

IK Sirius v Örgryte IS

Kickoff: 2026-05-11 17:00 UTC

Final: IK Sirius 2–0 Örgryte IS

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IK Sirius (Local)

Prediction 77.91%1.28fair odd
EV -1.84%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -7.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.20%77.92%77.97%80.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.191.191.2689.29%84.24%84.39%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Örgryte IS (Visit)

Prediction 8.62%11.60fair odd
EV +29.32%
Edge +1.95%
Kelly +2.09%
Growth +0.614%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.23%8.52%8.56%9.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0011.1111.0015.0011.11%9.00%9.09%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 13.47%7.42fair odd
EV +9.12%
Edge +1.13%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.117%

assuming max odds 8.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.76%13.57%13.47%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.706.608.1018.18%14.93%15.15%12.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IK Sirius (Local): 77.91%; Örgryte IS (Visit): 8.62%; Draw: 13.47%. For Örgryte IS (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.60. 19 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +29.32%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.47%EV -7.29%E -6.13%K -38.37%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV +29.32%E +1.95%K +2.09%G +0.614%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.31%EV -17.82%E -2.92%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-11 16:54
Betsson🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.47%EV -7.29%E -6.13%K -38.37%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV +29.32%E +1.95%K +2.09%G +0.614%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.31%EV -17.82%E -2.92%K -3.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-11 16:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 78.58%EV -3.40%E -2.74%K -14.15%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.50%EV +12.08%E +0.929%K +1.01%G +0.122%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.92%EV -5.70%E -0.814%K -0.949%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-11 16:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 78.58%EV -3.40%E -2.74%K -14.15%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.50%EV +12.08%E +0.929%K +1.01%G +0.122%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.92%EV -5.70%E -0.814%K -0.949%G +0.000%2.6%2026-05-11 16:55
PlayUp🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.01%EV -7.29%E -6.13%K -38.37%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV +12.08%E +0.929%K +1.01%G +0.122%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.94%EV -22.54%E -3.92%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-11 16:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 77.67%EV -1.84%E -1.46%K -7.07%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.83%EV +7.77%E +0.621%K +0.675%G +0.052%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.50%EV -9.06%E -1.34%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.2%2026-05-11 16:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.79%EV -8.07%E -6.84%K -44.83%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.44%EV +7.77%E +0.621%K +0.675%G +0.052%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.77%EV -9.06%E -1.34%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 16:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.98%EV -4.95%E -4.06%K -22.52%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.93%EV +3.46%E +0.288%K +0.314%G +0.011%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.09%EV -9.06%E -1.34%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-11 16:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 78.79%EV -7.29%E -6.13%K -38.37%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.81%EV +3.46%E +0.288%K +0.314%G +0.011%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -5.70%E -0.814%K -0.949%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 16:54
Grosvenor🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.99%EV -7.29%E -6.13%K -38.37%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV +3.46%E +0.288%K +0.314%G +0.011%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.28%EV -12.43%E -1.91%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 16:35
LeoVegas🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.99%EV -7.29%E -6.13%K -38.37%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV +3.46%E +0.288%K +0.314%G +0.011%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.28%EV -12.43%E -1.91%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 16:35
Casumo🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.99%EV -7.29%E -6.13%K -38.37%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV +3.46%E +0.288%K +0.314%G +0.011%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.28%EV -12.43%E -1.91%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 16:34
Unibet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.99%EV -7.29%E -6.13%K -38.37%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV +3.46%E +0.288%K +0.314%G +0.011%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.28%EV -12.43%E -1.91%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 16:34
BetRivers🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.99%EV -7.29%E -6.13%K -38.37%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV +3.46%E +0.288%K +0.314%G +0.011%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.28%EV -12.43%E -1.91%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 16:34
betPARX🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.99%EV -7.29%E -6.13%K -38.37%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV +3.46%E +0.288%K +0.314%G +0.011%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.28%EV -12.43%E -1.91%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 16:35
Bet Victor🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.36%EV -10.41%E -9.05%K -69.38%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV +3.46%E +0.288%K +0.314%G +0.011%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -5.70%E -0.814%K -0.949%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-11 16:53
LiveScore Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.42%EV -9.63%E -8.30%K -60.18%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.58%EV +3.46%E +0.288%K +0.314%G +0.011%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -12.43%E -1.91%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-11 16:55
GTbets🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.77%EV -4.95%E -4.06%K -22.52%G +0.000%11.73I 8.53%NM 8.19%EV +1.13%E +0.096%K +0.105%G +0.001%7.37I 13.57%NM 13.04%EV -0.711%E -0.096%K -0.112%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-11 16:54
1xBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.03%EV -7.29%E -6.13%K -38.37%G +0.000%11.60I 8.62%NM 8.21%EV +0.007%E +0.001%K +0.001%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.76%EV +9.12%E +1.13%K +1.29%G +0.117%5.0%2026-05-11 16:55
TABtouch🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.70%EV -8.07%E -6.84%K -44.83%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.97%EV -0.855%E -0.074%K -0.081%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.33%EV -13.78%E -2.15%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-11 16:24
Virgin Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.85%EV -8.85%E -7.56%K -52.05%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.92%EV -0.855%E -0.074%K -0.081%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -13.78%E -2.15%K -2.55%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-11 16:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 78.33%EV -12.74%E -11.38%K -106.20%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.63%EV -0.855%E -0.074%K -0.081%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.04%EV -15.80%E -2.53%K -3.01%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-11 16:55
DraftKings🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.95%EV -5.73%E -4.74%K -27.30%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV -5.17%E -0.470%K -0.517%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -5.70%E -0.814%K -0.949%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-11 16:54
BetMGM🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.46%EV -6.51%E -5.43%K -32.56%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -5.17%E -0.470%K -0.517%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.99%EV -2.33%E -0.321%K -0.372%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-11 16:54
Betway🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.08%EV -8.07%E -6.84%K -44.83%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV -5.17%E -0.470%K -0.517%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV +1.04%E +0.139%K +0.160%G +0.002%7.2%2026-05-11 16:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.71%EV -6.51%E -5.43%K -32.56%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.48%EV -5.17%E -0.470%K -0.517%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -9.06%E -1.34%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 16:55
888sport🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.38%EV -8.07%E -6.84%K -44.83%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -5.17%E -0.470%K -0.517%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -5.70%E -0.814%K -0.949%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 16:54
William Hill🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.38%EV -8.07%E -6.84%K -44.83%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -5.17%E -0.470%K -0.517%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -5.70%E -0.814%K -0.949%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 16:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.38%EV -8.07%E -6.84%K -44.83%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -5.17%E -0.470%K -0.517%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -5.70%E -0.814%K -0.949%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 16:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.38%EV -8.07%E -6.84%K -44.83%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -5.17%E -0.470%K -0.517%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -5.70%E -0.814%K -0.949%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 16:55
Bet Right🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.44%EV -7.29%E -6.13%K -38.37%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.38%EV -5.17%E -0.470%K -0.517%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -12.43%E -1.91%K -2.26%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-11 16:55
betfred_uk🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.59%EV -8.07%E -6.84%K -44.83%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -5.17%E -0.470%K -0.517%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -12.43%E -1.91%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-11 16:54
SportsBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 77.89%EV -9.63%E -8.30%K -60.18%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.21%EV -5.17%E -0.470%K -0.517%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -12.43%E -1.91%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-11 16:55
Coolbet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.45%EV -1.84%E -1.46%K -7.07%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.17%EV -9.48%E -0.902%K -0.997%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.38%EV -9.74%E -1.45%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-11 16:13
Bovada🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -5.73%E -4.74%K -27.30%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.95%EV -9.48%E -0.902%K -0.997%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -5.70%E -0.814%K -0.949%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-11 16:52
Tipico (DE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.77%EV -8.07%E -6.84%K -44.83%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.74%EV -9.48%E -0.902%K -0.997%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.49%EV -8.39%E -1.23%K -1.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-11 16:54
FanDuel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.21%EV -8.85%E -7.56%K -52.05%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.72%EV -9.48%E -0.902%K -0.997%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -5.70%E -0.814%K -0.949%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-11 16:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.85%EV -8.07%E -6.84%K -44.83%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.64%EV -9.48%E -0.902%K -0.997%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.51%EV -15.80%E -2.53%K -3.01%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-11 16:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 77.73%EV -10.41%E -9.05%K -69.38%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.51%EV -9.48%E -0.902%K -0.997%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.75%EV -12.43%E -1.91%K -2.26%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-11 16:55
Pinnacle🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.43%EV -4.17%E -3.39%K -18.15%G +0.000%10.34I 9.67%NM 9.21%EV -10.86%E -1.05%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.13I 14.03%NM 13.36%EV -3.94%E -0.553%K -0.643%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-11 16:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.29%EV -5.73%E -4.74%K -27.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -13.79%E -1.38%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -5.70%E -0.814%K -0.949%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 16:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.29%EV -5.73%E -4.74%K -27.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -13.79%E -1.38%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -5.70%E -0.814%K -0.949%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 16:55
BetUS🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.29%EV -5.73%E -4.74%K -27.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -13.79%E -1.38%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -5.70%E -0.814%K -0.949%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 16:54
BetAnything🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.29%EV -5.73%E -4.74%K -27.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV -13.79%E -1.38%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -5.70%E -0.814%K -0.949%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 16:54
Everygame🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.05%EV -6.51%E -5.43%K -32.56%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.25%EV -13.79%E -1.38%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.70%EV -9.06%E -1.34%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-11 16:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.37%EV -9.63%E -8.30%K -60.18%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -13.79%E -1.38%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.54%EV -2.33%E -0.321%K -0.372%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-11 16:54
Paddy Power🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 77.56%EV -11.19%E -9.81%K -79.90%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.84%EV -13.79%E -1.38%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.60%EV -12.43%E -1.91%K -2.26%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-11 16:53
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 75.20%EV -8.85%E -7.56%K -52.05%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.80%EV -13.79%E -1.38%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.00%EV -25.90%E -4.71%K -5.76%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-11 16:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 77.36%EV -12.74%E -11.38%K -106.20%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.66%EV -13.79%E -1.38%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 13.97%EV -16.47%E -2.66%K -3.17%G +0.000%15.4%2026-05-11 16:54
Coral🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.58%EV -8.07%E -6.84%K -44.83%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -18.10%E -1.91%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -12.43%E -1.91%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-11 16:54
Neds🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.58%EV -8.07%E -6.84%K -44.83%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -18.10%E -1.91%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -12.43%E -1.91%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-11 16:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.58%EV -8.07%E -6.84%K -44.83%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -18.10%E -1.91%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -12.43%E -1.91%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-11 16:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.58%EV -8.07%E -6.84%K -44.83%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -18.10%E -1.91%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -12.43%E -1.91%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-11 16:54
BoyleSports🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.74%EV -8.85%E -7.56%K -52.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.45%EV -18.10%E -1.91%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.81%EV -12.43%E -1.91%K -2.26%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-11 16:55
Sky Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.32%EV -8.85%E -7.56%K -52.05%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -18.10%E -1.91%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.29%EV -15.80%E -2.53%K -3.01%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-11 16:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 76.80%EV -11.19%E -9.81%K -79.90%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.73%EV -22.41%E -2.49%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.47%EV -12.43%E -1.91%K -2.26%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-11 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.23I 81.30%NM 80.74%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.85%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.41%0.7%2026-05-11 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.23I 81.30%NM 80.74%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.85%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.41%0.7%2026-05-11 16:54
Matchbook1.23I 81.30%NM 80.74%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.85%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.41%0.7%2026-05-11 16:55
Smarkets1.23I 81.30%NM 80.54%14.01I 7.14%NM 7.07%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38%0.9%2026-05-11 16:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.23I 81.30%NM 80.54%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.08%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38%0.9%2026-05-11 16:54