Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

IK Sirius v Kalmar FF

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 13:00 UTC

Final: IK Sirius 3–2 Kalmar FF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IK Sirius (Local)

Prediction 64.29%1.56fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -4.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.24%64.23%64.22%65.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.441.441.5272.46%69.52%69.44%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kalmar FF (Visit)

Prediction 14.75%6.78fair odd
EV +10.59%
Edge +1.41%
Kelly +1.63%
Growth +0.173%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.84%14.79%14.73%16.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.306.176.257.5018.87%16.21%16.00%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.97%4.77fair odd
EV -1.25%
Edge -0.265%
Kelly -0.336%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.87%20.98%21.05%23.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.364.354.7126.67%22.94%22.99%21.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IK Sirius (Local): 64.29%; Kalmar FF (Visit): 14.75%; Draw: 20.97%. For Kalmar FF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.78. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.59%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.98%EV -6.14%E -4.21%K -13.35%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.84%EV +10.59%E +1.41%K +1.63%G +0.173%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.17%EV -4.60%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-02 12:19
Pinnacle🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.34%EV -6.14%E -4.21%K -13.35%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.24%EV -1.20%E -0.180%K -0.211%G +0.000%4.67I 21.41%NM 20.43%EV -2.08%E -0.446%K -0.568%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-02 12:55
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.53%EV -6.78%E -4.68%K -15.07%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.96%EV -1.20%E -0.180%K -0.211%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.51%EV -8.79%E -2.02%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 12:50
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.53%EV -6.78%E -4.68%K -15.07%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.96%EV -1.20%E -0.180%K -0.211%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.51%EV -8.79%E -2.02%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 12:51
DraftKings🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.01%EV -6.78%E -4.68%K -15.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.50%EV -4.15%E -0.639%K -0.755%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -3.55%E -0.772%K -0.987%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 12:55
Bovada🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.86%EV -6.78%E -4.68%K -15.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -4.15%E -0.639%K -0.755%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.67%EV -4.60%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 12:53
BetUS🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.86%EV -6.78%E -4.68%K -15.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -4.15%E -0.639%K -0.755%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.67%EV -4.60%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 12:50
Everygame🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -7.43%E -5.16%K -16.88%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -4.15%E -0.639%K -0.755%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -3.55%E -0.772%K -0.987%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 12:50
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.19%EV -6.78%E -4.68%K -15.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -4.15%E -0.639%K -0.755%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.49%EV -9.21%E -2.13%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 12:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.93%EV -6.78%E -4.68%K -15.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -4.15%E -0.639%K -0.755%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.81%EV -10.89%E -2.56%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 11:45
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.92%EV -7.43%E -5.16%K -16.88%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -4.15%E -0.639%K -0.755%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -11.94%E -2.84%K -3.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 12:54
Bet Right🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.25%EV -8.07%E -5.64%K -18.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -4.15%E -0.639%K -0.755%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.62%EV -10.89%E -2.56%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 11:45
FanDuel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -10.00%E -7.14%K -24.99%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -4.15%E -0.639%K -0.755%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -5.65%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 12:34
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.99%EV -10.00%E -7.14%K -24.99%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -4.15%E -0.639%K -0.755%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -9.21%E -2.13%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 08:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.86%EV -6.78%E -4.68%K -15.07%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.69%EV -5.63%E -0.879%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%EV -3.55%E -0.772%K -0.987%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 12:51
BetOnline.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.86%EV -6.78%E -4.68%K -15.07%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.69%EV -5.63%E -0.879%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%EV -3.55%E -0.772%K -0.987%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 12:49
BetAnything🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.86%EV -6.78%E -4.68%K -15.07%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.69%EV -5.63%E -0.879%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%EV -3.55%E -0.772%K -0.987%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 12:51
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.95%EV -5.50%E -3.74%K -11.70%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.69%EV -5.63%E -0.879%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -7.75%E -1.76%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 12:51
Unibet (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.95%EV -5.50%E -3.74%K -11.70%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.69%EV -5.63%E -0.879%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -7.75%E -1.76%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 12:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.95%EV -5.50%E -3.74%K -11.70%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.69%EV -5.63%E -0.879%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -7.75%E -1.76%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 12:51
ATG (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.95%EV -5.50%E -3.74%K -11.70%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.69%EV -5.63%E -0.879%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -7.75%E -1.76%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 12:51
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.88%EV -6.78%E -4.68%K -15.07%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.82%EV -7.84%E -1.25%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.29%EV -8.79%E -2.02%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 12:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.88%EV -6.78%E -4.68%K -15.07%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.82%EV -7.84%E -1.25%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.29%EV -8.79%E -2.02%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 12:50
Casumo🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.88%EV -6.78%E -4.68%K -15.07%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.82%EV -7.84%E -1.25%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.29%EV -8.79%E -2.02%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 12:50
Grosvenor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.88%EV -6.78%E -4.68%K -15.07%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.82%EV -7.84%E -1.25%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.29%EV -8.79%E -2.02%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 12:51
betPARX🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.88%EV -6.78%E -4.68%K -15.07%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.82%EV -7.84%E -1.25%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.29%EV -8.79%E -2.02%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 12:51
BetRivers🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.04%EV -7.43%E -5.16%K -16.88%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.76%EV -7.84%E -1.25%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -8.79%E -2.02%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 12:50
LeoVegas🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.04%EV -7.43%E -5.16%K -16.88%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.76%EV -7.84%E -1.25%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.20%EV -8.79%E -2.02%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 12:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.89%EV -8.71%E -6.14%K -20.74%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.51%EV -7.84%E -1.25%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.60%EV -11.94%E -2.84%K -3.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-02 08:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.74%EV -8.71%E -6.14%K -20.74%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.83%EV -8.58%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -5.65%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 12:55
1xBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.00%EV -7.43%E -5.16%K -16.88%G +0.000%6.19I 16.16%NM 15.12%EV -8.72%E -1.41%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.71I 21.23%NM 19.87%EV -1.25%E -0.265%K -0.336%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 12:53
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.82%EV -8.07%E -5.64%K -18.76%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.96%EV -10.05%E -1.65%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.22%EV -9.84%E -2.29%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 12:51
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.66%EV -8.07%E -5.64%K -18.76%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.92%EV -10.05%E -1.65%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.42%EV -10.89%E -2.56%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 12:51
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.66%EV -8.07%E -5.64%K -18.76%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.92%EV -10.05%E -1.65%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.42%EV -10.89%E -2.56%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 12:50
GTbets🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.94%EV -2.28%E -1.50%K -4.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.94%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 21.12%EV -5.02%E -1.11%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-02 12:45
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.47%EV -4.85%E -3.28%K -10.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -5.65%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 04:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.47%EV -4.85%E -3.28%K -10.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -5.65%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 12:41
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.43%E -5.16%K -16.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -9.21%E -2.13%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-02 12:51
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.43%E -5.16%K -16.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -9.21%E -2.13%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-02 12:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.43%E -5.16%K -16.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -9.21%E -2.13%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-02 12:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.43%E -5.16%K -16.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -9.21%E -2.13%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-02 12:51
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.66%EV -8.71%E -6.14%K -20.74%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.27%EV -10.89%E -2.56%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-02 12:51
SportsBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -10.00%E -7.14%K -24.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -9.21%E -2.13%K -2.77%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-02 12:35
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -10.00%E -7.14%K -24.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -9.21%E -2.13%K -2.77%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-02 12:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.24%EV -10.00%E -7.14%K -24.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.52%EV -11.53%E -1.92%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.24%EV -21.37%E -5.70%K -7.77%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-02 12:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 63.51%EV -11.28%E -8.18%K -29.69%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.11%EV -14.48%E -2.50%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.38%EV -14.04%E -3.42%K -4.53%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-02 12:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.41%EV -9.35%E -6.63%K -22.82%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.55%EV -15.21%E -2.65%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.04%EV -10.89%E -2.56%K -3.35%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-02 12:40
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.42%EV -10.00%E -7.14%K -24.99%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.44%EV -15.21%E -2.65%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -11.94%E -2.84%K -3.73%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-02 12:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.41%EV -7.43%E -5.16%K -16.88%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.30%EV -17.42%E -3.11%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -5.65%E -1.26%K -1.61%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-02 12:41
Unibet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 63.17%EV -10.64%E -7.65%K -27.28%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.68%EV -17.42%E -3.11%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.16%EV -12.99%E -3.13%K -4.12%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-02 12:40
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -7.43%E -5.16%K -16.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -18.90%E -3.44%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -11.94%E -2.84%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-02 04:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -7.43%E -5.16%K -16.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -18.90%E -3.44%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -11.94%E -2.84%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-02 04:25
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -7.43%E -5.16%K -16.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -18.90%E -3.44%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -11.94%E -2.84%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-02 04:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -7.43%E -5.16%K -16.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -18.90%E -3.44%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -11.94%E -2.84%K -3.73%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-02 04:25
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -10.00%E -7.14%K -24.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -18.90%E -3.44%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -11.94%E -2.84%K -3.73%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-02 06:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.90%EV -10.00%E -7.14%K -24.99%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.62%EV -21.85%E -4.12%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.48%EV -9.84%E -2.29%K -2.98%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-02 12:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.03%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.76%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%1.0%2026-05-02 12:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.03%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.76%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%1.0%2026-05-02 12:51
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.03%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.76%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%1.0%2026-05-02 12:51
Matchbook1.50I 66.67%NM 66.03%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.76%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%1.0%2026-05-02 12:45
Smarkets1.49I 67.11%NM 65.65%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.97%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.38%2.2%2026-05-02 12:55