Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

IFK Goteborg v AIK

Kickoff: 2026-07-05 12:00 UTC

Final: IFK Goteborg 1–2 AIK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

IFK Goteborg (Local)

Prediction 47.80%2.09fair odd
EV +0.389%
Edge +0.185%
Kelly +0.353%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.32%47.62%47.90%49.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.961.952.1054.64%51.12%51.28%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AIK (Visit)

Prediction 26.01%3.84fair odd
EV +4.05%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +1.35%
Growth +0.055%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.02%26.12%25.91%28.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.513.504.0032.26%28.51%28.57%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.18%3.82fair odd
EV -0.763%
Edge -0.201%
Kelly -0.273%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.74%26.26%26.19%28.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.463.503.7932.79%28.94%28.57%26.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: IFK Goteborg (Local): 47.80%; AIK (Visit): 26.01%; Draw: 26.18%. For AIK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.84. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.05%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.28%EV -6.78%E -3.48%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.02%EV +4.05%E +1.01%K +1.35%G +0.055%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.69%EV -5.74%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-05 11:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.61%EV +0.389%E +0.185%K +0.353%G +0.001%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.42%EV +0.146%E +0.038%K +0.051%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.97%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.2%2026-07-05 11:54
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.61%EV +0.389%E +0.185%K +0.353%G +0.001%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.42%EV +0.146%E +0.038%K +0.051%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.97%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.2%2026-07-05 11:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.61%EV +0.389%E +0.185%K +0.353%G +0.001%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.42%EV +0.146%E +0.038%K +0.051%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.97%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.2%2026-07-05 11:50
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.37%EV -8.69%E -4.55%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -2.46%E -0.655%K -0.893%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -3.12%E -0.843%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-05 11:55
Pinnacle🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.34%EV -5.35%E -2.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.87%EV -3.76%E -1.02%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.80%EV -2.86%E -0.770%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-05 11:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -7.74%E -4.01%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -3.76%E -1.02%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -3.12%E -0.843%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 11:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -7.74%E -4.01%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -3.76%E -1.02%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -3.12%E -0.843%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 11:55
BetAnything🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -7.74%E -4.01%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -3.76%E -1.02%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -3.12%E -0.843%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 11:55
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -6.78%E -3.48%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -3.76%E -1.02%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.74%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-05 11:45
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -6.78%E -3.48%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -5.06%E -1.39%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -4.43%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-05 11:55
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.17%EV -6.78%E -3.48%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -5.06%E -1.39%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.74%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-05 11:54
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.82%EV -6.78%E -3.48%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -5.06%E -1.39%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-05 11:29
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.82%EV -6.78%E -3.48%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -5.06%E -1.39%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-05 11:30
Everygame🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.69%EV -8.69%E -4.55%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -5.06%E -1.39%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -5.74%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-05 11:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -3.44%E -1.70%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.36%E -1.77%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -13.59%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-05 11:55
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -3.44%E -1.70%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.36%E -1.77%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -13.59%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-05 11:54
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.69%E -4.55%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.36%E -1.77%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -5.74%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-05 11:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -9.17%E -4.83%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -6.36%E -1.77%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-05 11:40
LeoVegas🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.61%EV -5.35%E -2.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -7.66%E -2.16%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -4.43%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-05 11:55
Casumo🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -4.39%E -2.20%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.66%E -2.16%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -14.90%E -4.59%K -6.62%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-05 11:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -4.39%E -2.20%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.66%E -2.16%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -14.90%E -4.59%K -6.62%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-05 11:55
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -4.39%E -2.20%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.66%E -2.16%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -14.90%E -4.59%K -6.62%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-05 11:55
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -4.39%E -2.20%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.66%E -2.16%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -14.90%E -4.59%K -6.62%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-05 11:55
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.04%EV -5.35%E -2.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.87%EV -7.92%E -2.24%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.10%EV -0.763%E -0.201%K -0.273%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-05 11:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -4.39%E -2.20%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.74%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-05 11:50
BetMGM🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.92%EV -5.35%E -2.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-05 11:20
SportsBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -7.74%E -4.01%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-05 11:30
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -8.69%E -4.55%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-05 11:30
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -8.69%E -4.55%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-05 11:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -8.69%E -4.55%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-05 11:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -8.69%E -4.55%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-05 11:55
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -8.69%E -4.55%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-05 11:55
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.58%EV -9.17%E -4.83%K -10.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -8.96%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-05 11:54
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.53%EV -5.83%E -2.96%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.00%EV -10.26%E -2.97%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.47%EV -17.52%E -5.56%K -8.15%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-05 11:19
TABtouch🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.78%EV -6.78%E -3.48%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -10.26%E -2.97%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.34%EV -17.52%E -5.56%K -8.15%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-05 11:55
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -6.78%E -3.48%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.56%E -3.40%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-05 11:44
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -8.69%E -4.55%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -11.56%E -3.40%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -13.59%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-05 11:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.86%EV -7.74%E -4.01%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.03%EV -11.56%E -3.40%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.10%EV -17.52%E -5.56%K -8.15%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-05 11:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.86%EV -7.74%E -4.01%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.03%EV -11.56%E -3.40%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.10%EV -17.52%E -5.56%K -8.15%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-05 11:54
GTbets🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.85%EV -2.96%E -1.46%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -12.86%E -3.84%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.37%EV -7.57%E -2.14%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-05 11:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.47%EV -8.22%E -4.28%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -12.86%E -3.84%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -5.74%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-05 11:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -6.78%E -3.48%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -14.16%E -4.29%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -13.59%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-05 11:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -6.78%E -3.48%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -14.16%E -4.29%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -13.59%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-05 11:20
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -6.78%E -3.48%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -14.16%E -4.29%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -13.59%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-05 11:19
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -6.78%E -3.48%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -14.16%E -4.29%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -13.59%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-05 11:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.24%EV -10.61%E -5.67%K -12.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -14.16%E -4.29%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-05 11:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 45.88%EV -10.61%E -5.67%K -12.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.00%EV -14.16%E -4.29%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.13%EV -20.14%E -6.60%K -9.82%G +0.000%16.6%2026-07-05 11:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -2.00%E -0.976%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -15.46%E -4.76%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -5.74%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-05 11:50
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -4.39%E -2.20%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -15.46%E -4.76%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.05%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-05 11:50
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -4.39%E -2.20%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -16.76%E -5.24%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -5.74%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-05 11:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.16%EV -11.08%E -5.96%K -12.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.41%EV -16.76%E -5.24%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.43%EV -9.67%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-05 11:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.32%EV -4.39%E -2.20%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -18.06%E -5.73%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-05 11:50
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.32%EV -12.52%E -6.84%K -15.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.94%EV -19.36%E -6.25%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.74%EV -8.36%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000%15.5%2026-07-05 11:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.02I 49.50%NM 49.28%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.20%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.52%0.5%2026-07-05 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.70%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.15%0.7%2026-07-05 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.70%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.15%0.7%2026-07-05 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.70%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.15%0.7%2026-07-05 11:55
Smarkets2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-07-05 11:55