La escuela de los momios

Hammarby IF v Västerås SK

Inicio: 2026-05-03 12:00 UTC

Final: Hammarby IF 3–0 Västerås SK

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Hammarby IF (Local)

Predicción 69.91%1.43momio equitativo
EV -4.23%
Ventaja -3.09%
Kelly -11.42%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.37

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
66.95%69.87%70.10%72.07%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.241.311.301.3780.65%76.14%76.92%72.99%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Västerås SK (Visitante)

Predicción 12.02%8.32momio equitativo
EV +8.17%
Ventaja +0.907%
Kelly +1.02%
Crecimiento +0.083%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.39%12.02%11.81%13.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.507.808.009.0015.38%12.82%12.50%11.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 18.07%5.53momio equitativo
EV -2.40%
Ventaja -0.444%
Kelly -0.545%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.08%18.11%18.08%20.27%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.335.075.195.4023.09%19.72%19.27%18.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Betsson1.33I 75.19%NM 70.32%EV -7.02%E -5.28%K -21.28%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV +8.17%E +0.907%K +1.02%G +0.083%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.28%EV -12.34%E -2.54%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 11:55
NordicBet1.33I 75.19%NM 70.32%EV -7.02%E -5.28%K -21.28%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV +8.17%E +0.907%K +1.02%G +0.083%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.28%EV -12.34%E -2.54%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 11:55
Coolbet1.37I 72.99%NM 70.19%EV -4.23%E -3.09%K -11.42%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.31%EV +2.16%E +0.254%K +0.288%G +0.006%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.49%EV -6.01%E -1.16%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-03 07:40
Unibet1.30I 76.92%NM 71.75%EV -9.12%E -7.02%K -30.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV +2.16%E +0.254%K +0.288%G +0.006%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV -2.40%E -0.444%K -0.545%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 11:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 71.75%EV -9.12%E -7.02%K -30.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV +2.16%E +0.254%K +0.288%G +0.006%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV -2.40%E -0.444%K -0.545%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 11:55
Grosvenor1.30I 76.92%NM 71.75%EV -9.12%E -7.02%K -30.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV +2.16%E +0.254%K +0.288%G +0.006%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV -2.40%E -0.444%K -0.545%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 11:55
Unibet (NL)1.30I 76.92%NM 71.75%EV -9.12%E -7.02%K -30.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV +2.16%E +0.254%K +0.288%G +0.006%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV -2.40%E -0.444%K -0.545%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 11:55
Casumo1.30I 76.92%NM 71.75%EV -9.12%E -7.02%K -30.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV +2.16%E +0.254%K +0.288%G +0.006%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV -2.40%E -0.444%K -0.545%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 11:55
Unibet (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 71.75%EV -9.12%E -7.02%K -30.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV +2.16%E +0.254%K +0.288%G +0.006%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV -2.40%E -0.444%K -0.545%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 11:55
Svenska Spel1.30I 76.92%NM 71.75%EV -9.12%E -7.02%K -30.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV +2.16%E +0.254%K +0.288%G +0.006%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV -2.40%E -0.444%K -0.545%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 11:55
betPARX1.30I 76.92%NM 71.75%EV -9.12%E -7.02%K -30.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV +2.16%E +0.254%K +0.288%G +0.006%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV -2.40%E -0.444%K -0.545%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 11:56
ATG (SE)1.30I 76.92%NM 71.75%EV -9.12%E -7.02%K -30.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV +2.16%E +0.254%K +0.288%G +0.006%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.27%EV -2.40%E -0.444%K -0.545%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 11:55
LeoVegas1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%EV -9.12%E -7.02%K -30.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV +2.16%E +0.254%K +0.288%G +0.006%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -5.11%E -0.973%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 11:55
BetRivers1.28I 78.13%NM 72.07%EV -10.52%E -8.22%K -37.57%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV +2.16%E +0.254%K +0.288%G +0.006%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -2.40%E -0.444%K -0.545%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 11:15
Pinnacle1.35I 74.07%NM 70.71%EV -5.63%E -4.17%K -16.07%G +0.000%8.27I 12.09%NM 11.54%EV -0.608%E -0.073%K -0.084%G +0.000%5.38I 18.59%NM 17.74%EV -2.76%E -0.513%K -0.630%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-03 11:50
BetOnline.ag1.34I 74.63%NM 70.17%EV -6.32%E -4.72%K -18.60%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.75%EV -3.85%E -0.482%K -0.550%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.08%EV -6.01%E -1.16%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 07:15
LowVig.ag1.34I 74.63%NM 70.17%EV -6.32%E -4.72%K -18.60%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.75%EV -3.85%E -0.482%K -0.550%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.08%EV -6.01%E -1.16%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 07:14
BetAnything1.34I 74.63%NM 70.17%EV -6.32%E -4.72%K -18.60%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.75%EV -3.85%E -0.482%K -0.550%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.08%EV -6.01%E -1.16%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 07:15
Bovada1.33I 75.19%NM 70.56%EV -7.02%E -5.28%K -21.28%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -3.85%E -0.482%K -0.550%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.71%EV -4.21%E -0.794%K -0.978%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 11:54
BetUS1.33I 75.19%NM 70.56%EV -7.02%E -5.28%K -21.28%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -3.85%E -0.482%K -0.550%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.71%EV -4.21%E -0.794%K -0.978%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 11:55
FanDuel1.31I 76.34%NM 71.11%EV -8.42%E -6.43%K -27.17%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -3.85%E -0.482%K -0.550%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.25%EV -2.40%E -0.444%K -0.545%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-03 11:50
PointsBet (AU)1.33I 75.19%NM 69.82%EV -7.02%E -5.28%K -21.28%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -3.85%E -0.482%K -0.550%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -9.63%E -1.93%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 11:15
Everygame1.33I 75.19%NM 69.82%EV -7.02%E -5.28%K -21.28%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -3.85%E -0.482%K -0.550%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -9.63%E -1.93%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 04:39
Bet Right1.32I 75.76%NM 69.72%EV -7.72%E -5.85%K -24.13%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -3.85%E -0.482%K -0.550%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV -11.44%E -2.33%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-03 11:15
TABtouch1.29I 77.52%NM 71.08%EV -9.82%E -7.61%K -33.86%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.46%EV -3.85%E -0.482%K -0.550%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -5.11%E -0.973%K -1.20%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 11:55
betfred_uk1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -9.12%E -7.02%K -30.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -3.85%E -0.482%K -0.550%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -9.63%E -1.93%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-03 11:15
Bet Victor1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -9.12%E -7.02%K -30.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -3.85%E -0.482%K -0.550%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -9.63%E -1.93%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-03 11:24
LiveScore Bet1.28I 78.13%NM 71.12%EV -10.52%E -8.22%K -37.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -3.85%E -0.482%K -0.550%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.51%EV -6.01%E -1.16%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-03 11:55
Virgin Bet1.28I 78.13%NM 71.12%EV -10.52%E -8.22%K -37.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -3.85%E -0.482%K -0.550%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.51%EV -6.01%E -1.16%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-03 11:55
PlayUp1.30I 76.92%NM 69.63%EV -9.12%E -7.02%K -30.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -3.85%E -0.482%K -0.550%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.06%EV -14.15%E -2.98%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-03 11:50
SportsBet1.28I 78.13%NM 70.62%EV -10.52%E -8.22%K -37.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -3.85%E -0.482%K -0.550%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.08%EV -9.63%E -1.93%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-03 11:50
PMU (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 71.28%EV -13.31%E -10.74%K -55.48%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.05%EV -3.85%E -0.482%K -0.550%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.68%EV -9.63%E -1.93%K -2.41%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-03 11:55
Tipico (DE)1.30I 76.92%NM 70.59%EV -9.12%E -7.02%K -30.40%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.76%EV -6.26%E -0.802%K -0.920%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.65%EV -6.01%E -1.16%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 04:39
Betr (AU)1.30I 76.92%NM 69.38%EV -9.12%E -7.02%K -30.40%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.64%EV -6.86%E -0.885%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.99%EV -14.15%E -2.98%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-03 11:15
DraftKings1.36I 73.53%NM 69.43%EV -4.93%E -3.62%K -13.68%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -9.86%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -5.11%E -0.973%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-03 11:30
BetMGM1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.93%E -3.62%K -13.68%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -9.86%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -9.63%E -1.93%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 07:31
Unibet (UK)1.34I 74.63%NM 69.74%EV -6.32%E -4.72%K -18.60%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -9.86%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.80%EV -5.11%E -0.973%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 11:50
William Hill1.35I 74.07%NM 68.43%EV -5.63%E -4.17%K -16.07%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV -9.86%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -13.24%E -2.76%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 04:45
888sport1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -7.02%E -5.28%K -21.28%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -9.86%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -13.24%E -2.76%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-03 04:45
888sport (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -7.02%E -5.28%K -21.28%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -9.86%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -13.24%E -2.76%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-03 04:40
Mr Green (SE)1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -7.02%E -5.28%K -21.28%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -9.86%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -13.24%E -2.76%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-03 04:46
Paddy Power1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -9.82%E -7.61%K -33.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -9.86%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -9.63%E -1.93%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-03 11:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.29I 77.52%NM 68.03%EV -9.82%E -7.61%K -33.86%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.70%EV -9.86%E -1.31%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.27%EV -21.74%E -5.02%K -6.53%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-03 11:50
1xBet1.35I 74.07%NM 69.33%EV -5.63%E -4.17%K -16.07%G +0.000%7.41I 13.50%NM 12.63%EV -10.94%E -1.48%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 18.03%EV -6.19%E -1.19%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 11:54
Betway1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.63%E -4.17%K -16.07%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -15.87%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -5.11%E -0.973%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-03 11:50
BoyleSports1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -9.82%E -7.61%K -33.86%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -15.87%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -9.63%E -1.93%K -2.41%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-03 04:40
Betclic (FR)1.29I 77.52%NM 69.08%EV -9.82%E -7.61%K -33.86%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -15.87%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.19%EV -11.44%E -2.33%K -2.93%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-03 11:35
Sky Bet1.29I 77.52%NM 68.82%EV -9.82%E -7.61%K -33.86%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.68%EV -15.87%E -2.27%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.50%EV -13.24%E -2.76%K -3.49%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-03 11:50
Unibet (FR)1.27I 78.74%NM 68.90%EV -11.22%E -8.83%K -41.55%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 12.68%EV -17.07%E -2.47%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.42%EV -14.15%E -2.98%K -3.77%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-03 11:35
Winamax (DE)1.31I 76.34%NM 69.38%EV -8.42%E -6.43%K -27.17%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.47%EV -18.88%E -2.80%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.15%EV -4.21%E -0.794%K -0.978%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 11:26
Neds1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -7.02%E -5.28%K -21.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -21.88%E -3.37%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -16.86%E -3.66%K -4.68%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-03 07:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -7.02%E -5.28%K -21.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -21.88%E -3.37%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -16.86%E -3.66%K -4.68%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-03 07:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -7.02%E -5.28%K -21.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -21.88%E -3.37%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -16.86%E -3.66%K -4.68%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-03 07:30
Coral1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -7.02%E -5.28%K -21.28%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -21.88%E -3.37%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -16.86%E -3.66%K -4.68%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-03 07:30
Winamax (FR)1.29I 77.52%NM 68.41%EV -9.82%E -7.61%K -33.86%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.58%EV -21.88%E -3.37%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.01%EV -11.44%E -2.33%K -2.93%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-03 11:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.60%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.95%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.45%0.5%2026-05-03 11:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.60%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.95%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.45%0.5%2026-05-03 11:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.60%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.95%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.45%0.5%2026-05-03 11:54
Matchbook1.37I 72.99%NM 72.60%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.95%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.45%0.5%2026-05-03 11:56
Smarkets1.36I 73.53%NM 72.97%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.11%0.8%2026-05-03 11:56