Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

GAIS v Örgryte IS

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 14:30 UTC

Final: GAIS 4–0 Örgryte IS

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

GAIS (Local)

Prediction 62.83%1.59fair odd
EV -3.88%
Edge -2.53%
Kelly -7.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.54%62.68%62.90%64.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.461.461.5373.53%68.39%68.49%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Örgryte IS (Visit)

Prediction 16.24%6.16fair odd
EV +5.56%
Edge +0.855%
Kelly +1.01%
Growth +0.056%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.95%16.42%16.16%18.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.775.806.5020.83%17.33%17.24%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.93%4.78fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.343%
Kelly -0.435%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.07%20.91%20.94%22.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.354.404.7026.67%22.96%22.73%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: GAIS (Local): 62.83%; Örgryte IS (Visit): 16.24%; Draw: 20.93%. For Örgryte IS (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.16. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.56%.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 64.06%EV -3.88%E -2.53%K -7.31%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 15.08%EV +5.56%E +0.855%K +1.01%G +0.056%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.86%EV -1.61%E -0.343%K -0.435%G +0.000%2.0%2026-05-03 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 64.37%EV -5.13%E -3.40%K -10.06%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.95%EV +5.56%E +0.855%K +1.01%G +0.056%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.68%EV -1.61%E -0.343%K -0.435%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-03 13:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 64.37%EV -5.13%E -3.40%K -10.06%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.95%EV +5.56%E +0.855%K +1.01%G +0.056%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.68%EV -1.61%E -0.343%K -0.435%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-03 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.02%E -4.74%K -14.62%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.19%EV +1.50%E +0.240%K +0.285%G +0.004%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.64%EV -3.70%E -0.805%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 13:55
Unibet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.26%EV -9.53%E -6.62%K -21.66%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.17%EV -0.939%E -0.154%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 13:55
Grosvenor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.26%EV -9.53%E -6.62%K -21.66%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.17%EV -0.939%E -0.154%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 13:55
Casumo🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.26%EV -9.53%E -6.62%K -21.66%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.17%EV -0.939%E -0.154%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 13:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.26%EV -9.53%E -6.62%K -21.66%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.17%EV -0.939%E -0.154%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 13:56
betPARX🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.26%EV -9.53%E -6.62%K -21.66%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.17%EV -0.939%E -0.154%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-03 13:55
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.13%EV -10.16%E -7.10%K -23.62%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.03%EV -0.939%E -0.154%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -7.89%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 13:55
LeoVegas🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.13%EV -10.16%E -7.10%K -23.62%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.03%EV -0.939%E -0.154%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -7.89%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 13:54
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.13%EV -10.16%E -7.10%K -23.62%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.03%EV -0.939%E -0.154%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -7.89%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-03 13:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.63%EV -7.65%E -5.20%K -16.27%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -2.56%E -0.427%K -0.513%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 22:30
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.55%EV -10.16%E -7.10%K -23.62%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -2.56%E -0.427%K -0.513%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -3.70%E -0.805%K -1.03%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-03 14:15
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.81%EV -9.53%E -6.62%K -21.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -2.56%E -0.427%K -0.513%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -7.89%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-03 14:20
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -9.53%E -6.62%K -21.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -2.56%E -0.427%K -0.513%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -12.08%E -2.88%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-03 08:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.98%EV -10.79%E -7.60%K -25.68%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.14%EV -2.56%E -0.427%K -0.513%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.88%EV -8.94%E -2.05%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-03 13:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.98%EV -10.79%E -7.60%K -25.68%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.14%EV -2.56%E -0.427%K -0.513%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.88%EV -8.94%E -2.05%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-03 13:55
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.96%EV -4.50%E -2.96%K -8.66%G +0.000%5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV -3.21%E -0.539%K -0.648%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 20.99%EV -4.54%E -0.996%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-03 14:20
GTbets🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.62%EV -5.76%E -3.84%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.95I 16.81%NM 15.79%EV -3.37%E -0.567%K -0.682%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -8.94%E -2.05%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 07:30
Coolbet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.82%EV -3.88%E -2.53%K -7.31%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.29%EV -4.19%E -0.710%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.89%EV -3.70%E -0.805%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-03 07:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.15%EV -6.39%E -4.29%K -13.04%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -4.19%E -0.710%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 14:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.15%EV -6.39%E -4.29%K -13.04%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -4.19%E -0.710%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 14:20
BetUS🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.15%EV -6.39%E -4.29%K -13.04%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -4.19%E -0.710%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 14:25
BetAnything🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.15%EV -6.39%E -4.29%K -13.04%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -4.19%E -0.710%K -0.854%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 14:21
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.37%EV -5.76%E -3.84%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.13%EV -5.81%E -1.00%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.51%EV -8.94%E -2.05%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 10:55
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.37%EV -5.76%E -3.84%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.13%EV -5.81%E -1.00%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.51%EV -8.94%E -2.05%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-03 10:56
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.85%EV -9.53%E -6.62%K -21.66%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.60%EV -5.81%E -1.00%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -12.08%E -2.88%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-03 14:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.17%EV -14.56%E -10.70%K -40.43%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.05%EV -5.81%E -1.00%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.78%EV -12.08%E -2.88%K -3.77%G +0.000%14.6%2026-05-03 13:55
Bovada🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.58%EV -5.76%E -3.84%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.33%EV -6.62%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.09%EV -6.84%E -1.54%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-03 14:20
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.43%EV -5.76%E -3.84%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -6.62%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -7.89%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 14:25
Everygame🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.43%EV -5.76%E -3.84%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -6.62%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -7.89%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-03 14:21
Bet Right🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.44%EV -7.65%E -5.20%K -16.27%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.96%EV -6.62%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.60%EV -11.03%E -2.60%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 08:20
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.76%EV -9.53%E -6.62%K -21.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.72%EV -6.62%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -12.08%E -2.88%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-03 14:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.76%EV -9.53%E -6.62%K -21.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.72%EV -6.62%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -12.08%E -2.88%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-03 14:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.76%EV -9.53%E -6.62%K -21.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.72%EV -6.62%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -12.08%E -2.88%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-03 14:20
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.72%EV -6.39%E -4.29%K -13.04%G +0.000%5.71I 17.51%NM 16.37%EV -7.27%E -1.27%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 20.91%EV -6.42%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 14:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -5.76%E -3.84%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -10.68%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 13:45
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.35%EV -7.02%E -4.74%K -14.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -10.68%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -14.17%E -3.46%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-03 14:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.16%EV -8.90%E -6.14%K -19.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.39%EV -10.68%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.46%EV -12.08%E -2.88%K -3.77%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-03 08:20
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -9.53%E -6.62%K -21.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -10.68%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -12.08%E -2.88%K -3.77%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-03 07:15
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -12.04%E -8.60%K -30.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.13%EV -10.68%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.49%EV -9.36%E -2.16%K -2.81%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-03 14:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.43%EV -12.04%E -8.60%K -30.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.64%EV -10.68%E -1.94%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.93%EV -21.50%E -5.73%K -7.82%G +0.000%16.3%2026-05-03 14:25
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.54%EV -7.02%E -4.74%K -14.62%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.07%EV -14.74%E -2.81%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -16.26%E -4.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-03 14:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.54%EV -7.02%E -4.74%K -14.62%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.07%EV -14.74%E -2.81%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -16.26%E -4.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-03 14:26
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.54%EV -7.02%E -4.74%K -14.62%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.07%EV -14.74%E -2.81%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -16.26%E -4.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-03 14:26
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.54%EV -7.02%E -4.74%K -14.62%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.07%EV -14.74%E -2.81%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -16.26%E -4.07%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-03 14:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.92%EV -7.65%E -5.20%K -16.27%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.85%EV -17.18%E -3.37%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-03 13:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 61.71%EV -10.79%E -7.60%K -25.68%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.18%EV -17.18%E -3.37%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.11%EV -13.12%E -3.16%K -4.17%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-03 14:05
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.32%EV -9.53%E -6.62%K -21.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.66%EV -18.80%E -3.76%K -4.70%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -12.08%E -2.88%K -3.77%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-03 08:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.25%EV -9.53%E -6.62%K -21.66%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.00%EV -20.43%E -4.17%K -5.24%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.75%EV -11.03%E -2.60%K -3.39%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-03 14:01
Winamax (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.17%EV -9.53%E -6.62%K -21.66%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.35%EV -22.05%E -4.59%K -5.80%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.48%EV -9.98%E -2.32%K -3.03%G +0.000%13.5%2026-05-03 13:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.53I 65.36%NM 65.05%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.64%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.31%0.5%2026-05-03 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 65.05%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.64%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.31%0.5%2026-05-03 14:21
Matchbook1.53I 65.36%NM 65.05%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.64%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.31%0.5%2026-05-03 14:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 64.78%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%0.9%2026-05-03 14:26
Smarkets1.52I 65.79%NM 64.64%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.89%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.47%1.8%2026-05-03 14:15