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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Djurgardens IF v IF Elfsborg

Inicio: 2026-09-20 12:01 UTC

Final: Djurgardens IF 1–2 IF Elfsborg

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Djurgardens IF (Local)

Predicción 60.94%1.64momio equitativo
EV -4.93%
Ventaja -3.16%
Kelly -8.80%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
59.22%61.02%60.80%62.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.441.511.501.5669.44%66.22%66.67%64.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

IF Elfsborg (Visitante)

Predicción 17.46%5.73momio equitativo
EV +11.77%
Ventaja +1.84%
Kelly +2.18%
Crecimiento +0.257%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.19%17.36%17.65%18.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.755.425.406.4021.05%18.45%18.52%15.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.59%4.63momio equitativo
EV -1.33%
Ventaja -0.291%
Kelly -0.372%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.83%21.62%21.55%22.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.954.214.204.5725.32%23.77%23.81%21.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Djurgardens IF (Local): 60.94%; IF Elfsborg (Visitante): 17.46%; Empate: 21.59%. Para IF Elfsborg (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.73. 11 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 6.40, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +11.77%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.72%EV -5.54%E -3.57%K -10.06%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.19%EV +11.77%E +1.84%K +2.18%G +0.257%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.09%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-20 11:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.72%EV -5.54%E -3.57%K -10.06%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.19%EV +11.77%E +1.84%K +2.18%G +0.257%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.09%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-20 11:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.72%EV -5.54%E -3.57%K -10.06%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.19%EV +11.77%E +1.84%K +2.18%G +0.257%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.09%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-20 11:55
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV +4.79%E +0.798%K +0.957%G +0.046%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 11:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV +4.79%E +0.798%K +0.957%G +0.046%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 11:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV +4.79%E +0.798%K +0.957%G +0.046%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 11:54
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV +4.79%E +0.798%K +0.957%G +0.046%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 11:54
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV +4.79%E +0.798%K +0.957%G +0.046%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 11:54
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV +4.79%E +0.798%K +0.957%G +0.046%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 11:55
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.92%EV -5.54%E -3.57%K -10.06%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.27%EV +3.04%E +0.515%K +0.620%G +0.019%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.81%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-20 11:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.16%EV +0.420%E +0.073%K +0.088%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -8.24%E -1.94%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-20 11:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.51%EV -10.41%E -7.08%K -22.15%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.12%EV -0.453%E -0.080%K -0.096%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -7.16%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-20 11:39
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.29%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%5.67I 17.64%NM 16.48%EV -0.977%E -0.172%K -0.209%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-20 11:55
FanDuel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.16%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.65%EV -2.20%E -0.393%K -0.478%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-20 11:33
Virgin Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.19%EV -9.80%E -6.62%K -20.42%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.17%EV -2.20%E -0.393%K -0.478%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -13.64%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-20 11:54
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.35%EV -10.41%E -7.08%K -22.15%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.10%EV -2.20%E -0.393%K -0.478%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -13.64%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-20 11:54
TABtouch🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.67%EV -11.63%E -8.02%K -25.84%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.97%EV -2.20%E -0.393%K -0.478%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -13.64%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-20 11:55
Betsson🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.88%EV -4.93%E -3.16%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.59I 17.89%NM 16.99%EV -2.37%E -0.425%K -0.517%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 22.14%EV -7.38%E -1.72%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-20 11:30
Pinnacle🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.00%EV -6.15%E -3.99%K -11.38%G +0.000%5.58I 17.92%NM 17.11%EV -2.55%E -0.457%K -0.557%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 20.89%EV -1.33%E -0.291%K -0.372%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-20 11:45
GTbets🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.67%EV -6.75%E -4.41%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.51I 18.15%NM 16.85%EV -3.77%E -0.684%K -0.836%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 22.48%EV -10.83%E -2.62%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-20 11:29
Bovada🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.95%EV -7.36%E -4.84%K -14.16%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -3.95%E -0.717%K -0.877%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -2.84%E -0.631%K -0.812%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-20 11:53
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -3.95%E -0.717%K -0.877%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 11:34
Bet Right🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -3.95%E -0.717%K -0.877%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 11:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.35%EV -9.80%E -6.62%K -20.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -3.95%E -0.717%K -0.877%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -11.48%E -2.80%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-20 11:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.32%EV -11.63%E -8.02%K -25.84%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.17%EV -3.95%E -0.717%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.51%EV -14.72%E -3.73%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-20 11:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.49%EV -12.24%E -8.50%K -27.82%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.10%EV -3.95%E -0.717%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.42%EV -14.72%E -3.73%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-20 11:54
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.95%EV -7.36%E -4.84%K -14.16%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.00%EV -4.82%E -0.884%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-20 11:34
LeoVegas🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.00%EV -5.54%E -3.57%K -10.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.51%EV -5.69%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.49%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-20 11:34
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.32%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.03%EV -5.69%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.64%EV -8.24%E -1.94%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-20 11:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.65%EV -4.93%E -3.16%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.85%EV -7.44%E -1.40%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.50%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 11:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.65%EV -4.93%E -3.16%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.85%EV -7.44%E -1.40%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.50%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 11:55
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.65%EV -4.93%E -3.16%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.85%EV -7.44%E -1.40%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.50%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 11:50
BetAnything🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.65%EV -4.93%E -3.16%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.85%EV -7.44%E -1.40%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.50%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-20 11:54
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.54%EV -4.93%E -3.16%K -8.80%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -8.31%E -1.58%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-20 11:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.55%EV -5.54%E -3.57%K -10.06%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -8.31%E -1.58%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.57%EV -6.08%E -1.40%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 11:34
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.30%EV -6.75%E -4.41%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.86%EV -8.31%E -1.58%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -2.84%E -0.631%K -0.812%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-20 11:44
BetMGM🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.24%EV -6.15%E -3.99%K -11.38%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -8.31%E -1.58%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-20 11:28
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.87%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.39%EV -8.31%E -1.58%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 11:27
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.87%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.39%EV -8.31%E -1.58%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-20 11:27
PlayUp🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.22%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -8.31%E -1.58%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -13.64%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-20 11:34
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -6.75%E -4.41%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -12.68%E -2.54%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.64%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-20 11:29
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -6.75%E -4.41%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -12.68%E -2.54%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.64%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-20 11:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -6.75%E -4.41%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -12.68%E -2.54%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.64%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-20 11:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -6.75%E -4.41%K -12.74%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -12.68%E -2.54%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.64%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-20 11:29
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -12.68%E -2.54%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-20 11:29
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -12.68%E -2.54%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -13.64%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-20 11:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.35%EV -9.80%E -6.62%K -20.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.86%EV -12.68%E -2.54%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.79%EV -11.48%E -2.80%K -3.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-20 11:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 60.57%EV -11.63%E -8.02%K -25.84%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 17.74%EV -13.55%E -2.74%K -3.43%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.69%EV -12.56%E -3.10%K -4.12%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-20 11:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.42%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.50%EV -14.42%E -2.94%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.08%EV -7.16%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-20 11:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.05%EV -9.19%E -6.17%K -18.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.64%EV -16.17%E -3.37%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-20 11:34
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -16.17%E -3.37%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.64%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-20 11:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -16.17%E -3.37%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.64%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-20 11:29
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -16.17%E -3.37%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.64%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-20 11:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.58%E -5.72%K -17.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -16.17%E -3.37%K -4.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.64%E -3.41%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-20 11:29
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.75%EV -12.24%E -8.50%K -27.82%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.42%EV -17.04%E -3.59%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.83%EV -9.32%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-20 11:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.58I 63.29%NM 63.13%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.09%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.78%0.3%2026-09-20 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.52%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.46%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.02%1.2%2026-09-20 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.52%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.46%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.02%1.2%2026-09-20 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.52%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.46%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.02%1.2%2026-09-20 11:55
Smarkets◎1.56I 64.10%NM 62.82%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.33%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.85%2.0%2026-09-20 11:55