Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

AIK v IK Sirius

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 13:02 UTC

Final: AIK 0–3 IK Sirius

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AIK (Local)

Prediction 28.32%3.53fair odd
EV +9.03%
Edge +2.35%
Kelly +3.17%
Growth +0.286%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.45%28.16%28.38%29.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.323.303.8533.33%30.09%30.30%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IK Sirius (Visit)

Prediction 46.37%2.16fair odd
EV -2.15%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.80%46.53%46.31%49.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.971.972.1156.50%50.88%50.76%47.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.31%3.95fair odd
EV -0.041%
Edge -0.010%
Kelly -0.014%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.42%25.31%25.31%27.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.613.603.9532.26%27.72%27.78%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AIK (Local): 28.32%; IK Sirius (Visit): 46.37%; Draw: 25.31%. For AIK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.53. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 25.45%EV +9.03%E +2.35%K +3.17%G +0.286%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.74%EV -8.64%E -4.39%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.81%EV -0.041%E -0.010%K -0.014%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-30 12:59
ATG (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 25.45%EV +9.03%E +2.35%K +3.17%G +0.286%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.74%EV -8.64%E -4.39%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.81%EV -0.041%E -0.010%K -0.014%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-30 13:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 25.45%EV +9.03%E +2.35%K +3.17%G +0.286%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.74%EV -8.64%E -4.39%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.81%EV -0.041%E -0.010%K -0.014%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-30 13:00
Coolbet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.37%EV +3.37%E +0.922%K +1.27%G +0.043%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.62%EV -8.18%E -4.13%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.00%EV -2.57%E -0.668%K -0.902%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-30 12:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV +1.95%E +0.542%K +0.750%G +0.015%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -11.43%E -5.98%K -12.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -6.37%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-30 13:00
Unibet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV +0.535%E +0.151%K +0.210%G +0.001%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -12.82%E -6.82%K -14.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV -7.63%E -2.09%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-30 13:00
Casumo🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV +0.535%E +0.151%K +0.210%G +0.001%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -12.82%E -6.82%K -14.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV -7.63%E -2.09%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-30 13:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV +0.535%E +0.151%K +0.210%G +0.001%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -12.82%E -6.82%K -14.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV -7.63%E -2.09%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-30 12:59
Grosvenor🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV +0.535%E +0.151%K +0.210%G +0.001%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -12.82%E -6.82%K -14.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV -7.63%E -2.09%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-30 12:59
betPARX🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV +0.535%E +0.151%K +0.210%G +0.001%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.91%EV -12.82%E -6.82%K -14.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.19%EV -7.63%E -2.09%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-30 12:59
LeoVegas🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -2.30%E -0.666%K -0.938%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -14.21%E -7.68%K -16.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV -10.16%E -2.86%K -3.99%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-30 12:59
BetRivers🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -2.30%E -0.666%K -0.938%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -14.21%E -7.68%K -16.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV -10.16%E -2.86%K -3.99%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-30 12:55
TABtouch🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.97%EV -2.30%E -0.666%K -0.938%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.43%EV -14.21%E -7.68%K -16.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-30 13:00
Pinnacle🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.21%EV -3.71%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.34%EV -4.01%E -1.93%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.44%EV -4.60%E -1.22%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-30 12:59
BetOnline.ag🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -3.71%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.93%E -2.41%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-30 13:00
LowVig.ag🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -3.71%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.93%E -2.41%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-30 13:00
BetUS🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -3.71%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.93%E -2.41%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-30 13:00
BetAnything🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -3.71%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -4.93%E -2.41%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-30 12:59
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -3.71%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -7.25%E -3.63%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -6.37%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-30 13:00
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -3.71%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -9.57%E -4.91%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-30 12:59
LiveScore Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -3.71%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -15.14%E -8.27%K -18.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-30 13:00
Virgin Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.11%EV -3.71%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.52%EV -15.14%E -8.27%K -18.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.37%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-30 13:00
1xBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.33%EV -5.13%E -1.53%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.76%EV -5.86%E -2.89%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.91%EV -3.58%E -0.941%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 12:59
GTbets🎯3.34I 29.94%NM 28.77%EV -5.41%E -1.62%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.54%EV -2.15%E -1.02%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.69%EV -5.35%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-30 12:59
DraftKings🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%EV -6.55%E -1.98%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.13%EV -4.93%E -2.41%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.10%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-30 12:59
Unibet (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.55%E -1.98%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -6.32%E -3.13%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -5.10%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-30 13:00
Bovada🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.39%EV -6.55%E -1.98%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.93%EV -5.40%E -2.65%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV -7.63%E -2.09%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-30 12:59
NordicBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.55%E -1.98%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -4.93%E -2.41%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-30 12:59
Betsson🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -6.55%E -1.98%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -4.93%E -2.41%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-30 13:00
BetMGM🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.55%E -1.98%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -7.25%E -3.63%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-30 13:00
SportsBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -6.55%E -1.98%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -9.57%E -4.91%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-30 13:00
PMU (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 25.98%EV -6.55%E -1.98%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 48.43%EV -17.92%E -10.12%K -23.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.59%EV -15.22%E -4.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%16.7%2026-05-30 12:59
Everygame🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.61%EV -4.93%E -2.41%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -7.63%E -2.09%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-30 12:59
Betway🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.17%EV -9.57%E -4.91%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -5.10%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-30 12:59
Paddy Power🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -7.96%E -2.45%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -9.57%E -4.91%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-30 13:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -9.38%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -4.93%E -2.41%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -6.37%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-30 12:59
888sport🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.38%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.25%E -3.63%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-30 12:59
William Hill🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.38%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.25%E -3.63%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-30 12:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.38%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.25%E -3.63%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-30 12:59
888sport (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -9.38%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.25%E -3.63%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-30 12:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.38%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -9.57%E -4.91%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-30 13:00
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.38%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -9.57%E -4.91%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-30 12:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.38%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -9.57%E -4.91%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-30 12:59
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -9.38%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -9.57%E -4.91%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-30 13:00
Betclic (FR)🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 28.44%EV -10.23%E -3.23%K -4.71%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 46.72%EV -10.50%E -5.44%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.84%EV -8.14%E -2.24%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-30 12:58
Bet Victor🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 29.18%EV -11.64%E -3.73%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.25%E -3.63%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-30 12:58
Bet Right🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -4.93%E -2.41%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -7.63%E -2.09%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-30 12:59
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -4.93%E -2.41%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-30 12:59
PlayUp🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.24%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.87%EV -6.32%E -3.13%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-30 12:59
Winamax (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.18%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.69%EV -8.18%E -4.13%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.13%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-30 13:00
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -9.57%E -4.91%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -13.96%E -4.11%K -5.82%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-30 13:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -12.21%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.80%EV -11.43%E -5.98%K -12.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -21.55%E -6.95%K -10.26%G +0.000%16.9%2026-05-30 13:00
Betr (AU)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.65%EV -13.63%E -4.47%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.22%EV -7.25%E -3.63%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-30 12:59
Winamax (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.31%EV -15.04%E -5.01%K -7.52%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.27%EV -11.89%E -6.26%K -13.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.42%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-30 12:59
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -15.04%E -5.01%K -7.52%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 45.82%EV -11.43%E -5.98%K -12.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.01%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-30 13:00
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.72%EV -15.04%E -5.01%K -7.52%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 46.31%EV -13.74%E -7.39%K -15.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.97%EV -12.69%E -3.68%K -5.18%G +0.000%16.1%2026-05-30 12:58
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.70%2.12I 47.17%NM 47.05%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.25%0.3%2026-05-30 13:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.70%2.12I 47.17%NM 47.05%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.25%0.3%2026-05-30 13:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.60I 27.78%NM 27.70%2.12I 47.17%NM 47.05%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.25%0.3%2026-05-30 13:00
Matchbook3.60I 27.78%NM 27.62%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.89%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49%0.6%2026-05-30 13:00
Smarkets3.50I 28.57%NM 28.06%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.76%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.18%1.8%2026-05-30 13:00