The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

AIK v IFK Goteborg

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 16:13 UTC

Final: AIK 2–2 IFK Goteborg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AIK (Local)

Prediction 35.53%2.81fair odd
EV -0.527%
Edge -0.188%
Kelly -0.293%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.27%35.62%35.73%36.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.612.602.8041.67%38.31%38.46%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

IFK Goteborg (Visit)

Prediction 38.43%2.60fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.46%38.44%38.41%39.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.382.402.5344.44%42.07%41.67%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.04%3.84fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -0.627%
Kelly -0.856%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.91%25.94%25.86%27.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.523.503.7530.30%28.40%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AIK (Local): 35.53%; IFK Goteborg (Visit): 38.43%; Draw: 26.04%. For AIK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.81. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -0.527%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.77%EV -0.527%E -0.188%K -0.293%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.26%EV -4.68%E -1.89%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.96%EV -2.35%E -0.627%K -0.856%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-17 14:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.18%EV -2.30%E -0.838%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.01%EV -4.68%E -1.89%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.80%EV -2.35%E -0.627%K -0.856%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-17 14:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.18%EV -2.30%E -0.838%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.01%EV -4.68%E -1.89%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.80%EV -2.35%E -0.627%K -0.856%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-17 14:35
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.95%EV -2.30%E -0.838%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.07%EV -5.45%E -2.22%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.98%EV -3.65%E -0.988%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-17 11:24
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.86%E -2.21%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -7.76%E -3.23%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -6.26%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 14:35
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.86%E -2.21%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -7.76%E -3.23%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -6.26%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 14:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.86%E -2.21%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -7.76%E -3.23%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -6.26%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 14:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.86%E -2.21%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -7.76%E -3.23%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -6.26%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 14:35
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.86%E -2.21%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -7.76%E -3.23%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -6.26%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 14:35
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -5.86%E -2.21%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -7.76%E -3.23%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 15:55
Betsson🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.99%EV -6.21%E -2.35%K -3.79%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.55%EV -2.76%E -1.09%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.46%EV -6.52%E -1.82%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 16:10
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -7.63%E -2.94%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -3.91%E -1.57%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.26%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-17 16:10
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.63%E -2.94%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -7.76%E -3.23%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 15:32
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -7.63%E -2.94%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.83%EV -9.68%E -4.12%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 14:35
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.85%EV -7.63%E -2.94%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.89%EV -10.45%E -4.48%K -7.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.26%EV -10.16%E -2.95%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-17 14:35
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -7.63%E -2.94%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.74%EV -11.60%E -5.04%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -14.07%E -4.26%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-17 15:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -7.63%E -2.94%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.74%EV -11.60%E -5.04%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -14.07%E -4.26%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-17 15:55
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -7.63%E -2.94%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.74%EV -11.60%E -5.04%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -14.07%E -4.26%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-17 15:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -7.63%E -2.94%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.74%EV -11.60%E -5.04%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.00%EV -14.07%E -4.26%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-17 15:55
NordicBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.00%EV -8.34%E -3.23%K -5.28%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.46%EV -4.68%E -1.89%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-17 16:10
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.11%EV -9.41%E -3.69%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.93%EV -11.60%E -5.04%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -10.16%E -2.95%K -4.15%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-17 14:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -11.19%E -4.47%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -11.60%E -5.04%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -6.26%E -1.74%K -2.41%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-17 15:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.31%EV -11.19%E -4.47%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.72%EV -12.37%E -5.42%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -11.47%E -3.37%K -4.78%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-17 14:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.31%EV -11.19%E -4.47%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.72%EV -12.37%E -5.42%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -11.47%E -3.37%K -4.78%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-17 14:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.90%EV -12.96%E -5.29%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.24%EV -11.60%E -5.04%K -8.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.87%EV -11.47%E -3.37%K -4.78%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-17 15:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.33%EV -14.74%E -6.14%K -10.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.75%EV -13.52%E -6.01%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.91%EV -8.86%E -2.53%K -3.55%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-17 15:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 35.62%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.67%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.71%2.5%2026-10-17 16:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 35.62%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.67%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.71%2.5%2026-10-17 16:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 35.62%2.46I 40.65%NM 39.67%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.71%2.5%2026-10-17 16:10
Smarkets◎2.74I 36.50%NM 35.14%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.83%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.03%3.8%2026-10-17 15:55
Matchbook◎2.70I 37.04%NM 35.38%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.48%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.14%4.7%2026-10-17 16:10