Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

AIK v Hammarby IF

Inicio: 2026-08-30 12:00 UTC

Final: AIK 3–2 Hammarby IF

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

AIK (Local)

Predicción 13.41%7.46momio equitativo
EV +4.61%
Ventaja +0.591%
Kelly +0.678%
Crecimiento +0.031%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.76%13.46%13.43%15.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.506.816.837.8018.18%14.68%14.64%12.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Hammarby IF (Visitante)

Predicción 68.08%1.47momio equitativo
EV -1.96%
Ventaja -1.36%
Kelly -4.46%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.44

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
64.54%68.03%68.02%70.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.301.361.361.4476.92%73.42%73.53%69.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 18.51%5.40momio equitativo
EV +1.05%
Ventaja +0.193%
Kelly +0.236%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.46

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.12%18.51%18.55%20.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.504.904.825.4622.22%20.41%20.73%18.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: AIK (Local): 13.41%; Hammarby IF (Visitante): 68.08%; Empate: 18.51%. Para AIK (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 7.46. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 7.80, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.61%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Tipico (DE)🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 11.76%EV +4.61%E +0.591%K +0.678%G +0.031%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.59%EV -11.49%E -8.84%K -38.31%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.65%EV -3.76%E -0.723%K -0.895%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-30 11:45
Betsson🎯7.60I 13.16%NM 12.25%EV +1.93%E +0.253%K +0.292%G +0.006%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.95%EV -6.73%E -4.91%K -18.19%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -13.01%E -2.77%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-30 11:40
NordicBet🎯7.60I 13.16%NM 12.25%EV +1.93%E +0.253%K +0.292%G +0.006%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.95%EV -6.73%E -4.91%K -18.19%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%EV -13.01%E -2.77%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-30 11:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV +0.584%E +0.078%K +0.090%G +0.001%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -8.09%E -5.99%K -23.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -7.46%E -1.49%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-30 11:50
FanDuel🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV +0.584%E +0.078%K +0.090%G +0.001%1.31I 76.34%NM 70.56%EV -10.81%E -8.25%K -34.88%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.12%EV -0.059%E -0.011%K -0.013%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-30 11:50
betfred_uk🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV +0.584%E +0.078%K +0.090%G +0.001%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -9.45%E -7.11%K -28.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -7.46%E -1.49%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 11:50
Bet Victor🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV +0.584%E +0.078%K +0.090%G +0.001%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -9.45%E -7.11%K -28.64%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -12.09%E -2.55%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-30 11:58
betano_uk🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV +0.584%E +0.078%K +0.090%G +0.001%1.33I 75.19%NM 68.62%EV -9.45%E -7.11%K -28.64%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.21%EV -12.09%E -2.55%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-30 11:58
Pinnacle🎯7.36I 13.59%NM 12.95%EV -1.29%E -0.176%K -0.203%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.59%EV -6.73%E -4.91%K -18.19%G +0.000%5.46I 18.32%NM 17.46%EV +1.05%E +0.193%K +0.236%G +0.002%4.9%2026-08-30 11:50
SportsBet🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.61%EV -2.77%E -0.382%K -0.443%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 69.80%EV -10.81%E -8.25%K -34.88%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.58%EV -3.76%E -0.723%K -0.895%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-30 11:45
Unibet (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.76%EV -6.12%E -0.875%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -2.64%E -1.85%K -6.15%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.89%EV -5.61%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-30 11:45
Svenska Spel🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.76%EV -6.12%E -0.875%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -2.64%E -1.85%K -6.15%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.89%EV -5.61%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-30 11:45
ATG (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.76%EV -6.12%E -0.875%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -2.64%E -1.85%K -6.15%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.89%EV -5.61%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-30 11:45
LeoVegas🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.12%E -0.875%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.37%EV -6.05%E -4.38%K -15.92%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.15%EV -3.76%E -0.723%K -0.895%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 11:30
BetOnline.ag🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.12%E -0.875%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.37%EV -6.05%E -4.38%K -15.92%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.15%EV -3.76%E -0.723%K -0.895%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 11:55
LowVig.ag🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.12%E -0.875%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.37%EV -6.05%E -4.38%K -15.92%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.15%EV -3.76%E -0.723%K -0.895%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 11:55
BetAnything🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.12%E -0.875%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.37%EV -6.05%E -4.38%K -15.92%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.15%EV -3.76%E -0.723%K -0.895%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 11:55
DraftKings🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV -6.12%E -0.875%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -6.73%E -4.91%K -18.19%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -2.84%E -0.540%K -0.667%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 11:35
Bovada🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -6.12%E -0.875%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.53%EV -6.73%E -4.91%K -18.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.06%EV -3.76%E -0.723%K -0.895%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 11:55
BetUS🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -6.12%E -0.875%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.53%EV -6.73%E -4.91%K -18.19%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.06%EV -3.76%E -0.723%K -0.895%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 11:59
Unibet (UK)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV -6.12%E -0.875%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.04%EV -6.73%E -4.91%K -18.19%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -7.46%E -1.49%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 11:30
BetMGM🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -6.12%E -0.875%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -7.41%E -5.45%K -20.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -7.46%E -1.49%K -1.87%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-30 11:30
Bet Right🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.07%EV -6.12%E -0.875%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.26%EV -8.77%E -6.55%K -25.80%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -9.31%E -1.90%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 11:50
Betr (AU)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -6.12%E -0.875%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 68.19%EV -10.13%E -7.68%K -31.66%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.95%EV -12.09%E -2.55%K -3.22%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-30 11:50
Paddy Power🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -6.12%E -0.875%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -11.49%E -8.84%K -38.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -7.46%E -1.49%K -1.87%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 11:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -6.12%E -0.875%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -11.49%E -8.84%K -38.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -7.46%E -1.49%K -1.87%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 11:45
GTbets🎯6.98I 14.33%NM 13.61%EV -6.39%E -0.915%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.39%EV -4.01%E -2.84%K -9.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.00%EV -7.46%E -1.49%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 11:30
Coolbet🎯6.90I 14.49%NM 13.94%EV -7.46%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.81%EV -1.96%E -1.36%K -4.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.24%EV -7.46%E -1.49%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-30 11:50
1xBet🎯6.76I 14.79%NM 14.10%EV -9.34%E -1.38%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.11%EV -3.32%E -2.34%K -7.92%G +0.000%5.07I 19.72%NM 18.80%EV -6.17%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 11:59
Unibet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -9.47%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.71%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -11.16%E -2.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 11:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -9.47%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.71%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -11.16%E -2.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 11:45
Grosvenor🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -9.47%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.71%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -11.16%E -2.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 11:45
Casumo🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -9.47%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.71%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -11.16%E -2.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 11:45
Unibet (NL)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -9.47%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.71%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -11.16%E -2.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 11:45
betPARX🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.84%EV -9.47%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.71%EV -4.69%E -3.35%K -11.72%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -11.16%E -2.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 11:45
PlayUp🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.40%EV -9.47%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.50%EV -7.41%E -5.45%K -20.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -16.72%E -3.71%K -4.78%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 11:40
Betway🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -12.83%E -1.97%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.79%EV -6.05%E -4.38%K -15.92%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -2.84%E -0.540%K -0.667%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 11:54
888sport🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -12.83%E -1.97%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.00%EV -7.41%E -5.45%K -20.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -11.16%E -2.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-30 11:25
William Hill🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -12.83%E -1.97%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.00%EV -7.41%E -5.45%K -20.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -11.16%E -2.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-30 11:30
888sport (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -12.83%E -1.97%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.00%EV -7.41%E -5.45%K -20.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -11.16%E -2.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-30 11:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -12.83%E -1.97%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.00%EV -7.41%E -5.45%K -20.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -11.16%E -2.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-30 11:25
Betclic (FR)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -12.83%E -1.97%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.62%EV -9.45%E -7.11%K -28.64%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.54%EV -10.24%E -2.11%K -2.66%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 11:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -12.83%E -1.97%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -8.09%E -5.99%K -23.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -14.87%E -3.23%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 11:30
Neds🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -12.83%E -1.97%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -8.09%E -5.99%K -23.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -14.87%E -3.23%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 11:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -12.83%E -1.97%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -8.09%E -5.99%K -23.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -14.87%E -3.23%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 11:30
Coral🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.84%EV -12.83%E -1.97%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.61%EV -8.09%E -5.99%K -23.12%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -14.87%E -3.23%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 11:30
Sky Bet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.60%EV -12.83%E -1.97%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 67.99%EV -11.49%E -8.84%K -38.31%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -11.16%E -2.33%K -2.94%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-30 11:45
Unibet (FR)🎯6.30I 15.87%NM 13.94%EV -15.51%E -2.46%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 67.57%EV -11.49%E -8.84%K -38.31%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.49%EV -12.09%E -2.55%K -3.22%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-30 11:30
Winamax (DE)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.59%EV -16.18%E -2.59%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.54%EV -8.09%E -5.99%K -23.12%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.88%EV -5.61%E -1.10%K -1.37%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-30 11:30
BetRivers🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.38%EV -16.18%E -2.59%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.08%EV -7.41%E -5.45%K -20.58%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -14.87%E -3.23%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-30 11:45
TABtouch🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.32%EV -16.18%E -2.59%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.80%EV -7.41%E -5.45%K -20.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -16.72%E -3.71%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 11:45
PMU (FR)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.55%EV -18.19%E -2.98%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 65.73%EV -8.09%E -5.99%K -23.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -16.72%E -3.71%K -4.78%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-30 11:45
LiveScore Bet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.55%EV -18.19%E -2.98%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 65.73%EV -8.09%E -5.99%K -23.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -16.72%E -3.71%K -4.78%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-30 11:45
Virgin Bet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.55%EV -18.19%E -2.98%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 65.73%EV -8.09%E -5.99%K -23.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -16.72%E -3.71%K -4.78%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-30 11:45
Winamax (FR)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -19.53%E -3.26%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -9.45%E -7.11%K -28.64%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -7.46%E -1.49%K -1.87%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 11:30
BoyleSports🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -26.24%E -4.77%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.54%EV -7.41%E -5.45%K -20.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.50%EV -16.72%E -3.71%K -4.78%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-30 11:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎8.60I 11.63%NM 11.53%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.36%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10%0.8%2026-08-30 11:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎8.60I 11.63%NM 11.53%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.36%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10%0.8%2026-08-30 11:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎8.60I 11.63%NM 11.53%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.36%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10%0.8%2026-08-30 11:45
Matchbook◎8.60I 11.63%NM 11.50%1.39I 71.94%NM 71.15%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.35%1.1%2026-08-30 11:45
Smarkets◎8.00I 12.50%NM 12.19%1.38I 72.46%NM 70.69%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.11%2.5%2026-08-30 11:55