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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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St Johnstone v Falkirk F.C.

Inicio: 2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Final: St Johnstone 1–1 Falkirk F.C.

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

St Johnstone (Local)

Predicción 46.10%2.17momio equitativo
EV -0.895%
Ventaja -0.416%
Kelly -0.778%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.12%45.89%46.08%47.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.922.052.052.1552.08%48.82%48.78%46.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Falkirk F.C. (Visitante)

Predicción 27.11%3.69momio equitativo
EV -2.39%
Ventaja -0.663%
Kelly -0.918%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.22%27.33%27.07%30.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.333.403.6033.33%30.02%29.41%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.79%3.73momio equitativo
EV +0.461%
Ventaja +0.123%
Kelly +0.168%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.78%26.78%26.84%27.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.463.453.7530.30%28.92%28.99%26.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: St Johnstone (Local): 46.10%; Falkirk F.C. (Visitante): 27.11%; Empate: 26.79%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.73. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.75, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.461%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -3.20%E -1.52%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -18.66%E -6.22%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV +0.461%E +0.123%K +0.168%G +0.001%7.6%2026-09-18 14:05
Coolbet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -5.50%E -2.69%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -5.10%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -3.56%E -0.988%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-17 11:55
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -5.50%E -2.69%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -5.10%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -3.56%E -0.988%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-18 11:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.50%E -2.69%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.56%E -0.988%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-17 08:26
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.50%E -2.69%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.56%E -0.988%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-17 08:26
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.50%E -2.69%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.56%E -0.988%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-17 08:25
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -0.895%E -0.416%K -0.778%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -15.94%E -5.14%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -3.56%E -0.988%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-14 13:29
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -0.895%E -0.416%K -0.778%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -15.94%E -5.14%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -3.56%E -0.988%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 14:01
Pinnacle🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.29%EV -4.12%E -1.98%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.74%EV -2.39%E -0.663%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.97%EV -4.36%E -1.22%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-18 14:55
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.23%EV -5.50%E -2.69%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.10%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -4.90%E -1.38%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-18 14:00
Bet Right🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.29%EV -7.81%E -3.90%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -9.16%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -4.90%E -1.38%K -1.92%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-17 12:00
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.50%E -2.69%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.10%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.24%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-18 11:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.86%EV -1.36%E -0.634%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -13.23%E -4.14%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -6.24%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-16 10:46
ATG (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.86%EV -1.36%E -0.634%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -13.23%E -4.14%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -6.24%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-16 10:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.50%E -2.69%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.24%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-15 21:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.50%E -2.69%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.24%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-15 21:35
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.50%E -2.69%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.24%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-15 21:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.50%E -2.69%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.24%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-16 20:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -2.28%E -1.07%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -13.23%E -4.14%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -6.24%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-16 10:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.09%EV -2.28%E -1.07%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -13.23%E -4.14%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -6.24%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-16 10:45
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -0.895%E -0.416%K -0.778%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.39%EV -17.30%E -5.67%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.24%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-14 11:05
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -7.81%E -3.90%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -6.24%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-18 11:13
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -7.81%E -3.90%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -6.24%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-18 07:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -11.04%E -5.72%K -11.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -5.10%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -6.24%E -1.78%K -2.49%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-18 11:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.17%EV -5.97%E -2.92%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.53%EV -3.74%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -7.58%E -2.20%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 14:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.17%EV -5.97%E -2.92%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.53%EV -3.74%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -7.58%E -2.20%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 14:05
BetUS🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.17%EV -5.97%E -2.92%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.53%EV -3.74%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -7.58%E -2.20%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 14:10
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%EV -4.12%E -1.98%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV -7.58%E -2.20%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 14:05
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.41%EV -6.89%E -3.41%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -3.74%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -7.58%E -2.20%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-15 21:25
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.41%EV -6.89%E -3.41%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -3.74%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%EV -7.58%E -2.20%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-15 21:25
1xBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.82%EV -5.97%E -2.92%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.01%EV -6.18%E -1.79%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.17%EV -7.84%E -2.28%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-18 15:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.03%EV -6.89%E -3.41%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -6.45%E -1.87%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.03%EV -7.84%E -2.28%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 14:20
PlayUp🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -7.81%E -3.90%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -5.10%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.92%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-18 14:04
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -3.20%E -1.52%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -14.59%E -4.63%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.92%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-16 10:46
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -3.20%E -1.52%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -14.59%E -4.63%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.92%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-16 10:43
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -3.20%E -1.52%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -14.59%E -4.63%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.92%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-16 10:45
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -3.20%E -1.52%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -14.59%E -4.63%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.92%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-16 10:46
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -3.20%E -1.52%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -14.59%E -4.63%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.92%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-16 10:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -3.20%E -1.52%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -14.59%E -4.63%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.92%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-16 10:45
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -3.20%E -1.52%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -14.59%E -4.63%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.92%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-16 10:45
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.81%E -3.90%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.92%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-15 19:25
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.81%E -3.90%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.92%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-15 19:25
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.81%E -3.90%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.92%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 14:48
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -10.11%E -5.19%K -10.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -10.52%E -3.19%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -8.92%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-15 19:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.59%EV -11.50%E -5.99%K -12.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -10.52%E -3.19%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.31%EV -8.92%E -2.62%K -3.71%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-18 14:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.39%EV -7.81%E -3.90%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.52%E -3.19%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -10.25%E -3.06%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-16 20:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.75%EV -4.58%E -2.21%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -15.94%E -5.14%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -10.25%E -3.06%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-16 10:45
BetRivers🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.66%EV -5.04%E -2.45%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -17.30%E -5.67%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%EV -10.25%E -3.06%K -4.36%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-16 10:45
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.81%E -3.90%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -11.59%E -3.51%K -5.04%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-18 11:15
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.81%E -3.90%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -11.59%E -3.51%K -5.04%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-18 11:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.81%E -3.90%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -11.59%E -3.51%K -5.04%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-18 11:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.81%E -3.90%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -11.59%E -3.51%K -5.04%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-18 11:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.60%EV -5.50%E -2.69%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.31%EV -17.30%E -5.67%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -11.59%E -3.51%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-16 10:46
NetBet (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.09%EV -11.04%E -5.72%K -11.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -10.52%E -3.19%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -11.59%E -3.51%K -5.04%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-18 14:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.02%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.62%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.36%1.5%2026-09-18 14:05
Matchbook◎2.14I 46.73%NM 45.86%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.89%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.26%1.9%2026-09-18 15:20
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.03%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.47%2.0%2026-09-18 15:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 45.69%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.16%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.16%2.3%2026-09-18 14:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 45.69%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.16%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.16%2.3%2026-09-18 14:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 45.69%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.16%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.16%2.3%2026-09-18 14:50