Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Motherwell v Dundee United

Kickoff: 2026-09-02 18:45 UTC

Final: Motherwell 3–0 Dundee United

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Motherwell (Local)

Prediction 40.44%2.47fair odd
EV -2.14%
Edge -0.884%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.94%40.69%40.28%43.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.272.262.4246.51%44.07%44.15%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dundee United (Visit)

Prediction 33.09%3.02fair odd
EV +2.59%
Edge +0.835%
Kelly +1.23%
Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.58%32.83%33.22%34.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.862.853.1037.74%35.00%35.09%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.47%3.78fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.341%
Kelly -0.467%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.48%26.48%26.50%27.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.473.503.7331.25%28.80%28.57%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Motherwell (Local): 40.44%; Dundee United (Visit): 33.09%; Draw: 26.47%. For Dundee United (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.02. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.59%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -11.04%E -5.02%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV +2.59%E +0.835%K +1.23%G +0.032%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 18:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -11.04%E -5.02%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV +2.59%E +0.835%K +1.23%G +0.032%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 18:25
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -11.04%E -5.02%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV +2.59%E +0.835%K +1.23%G +0.032%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-02 18:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -11.04%E -5.02%K -9.20%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV +0.935%E +0.306%K +0.456%G +0.004%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 18:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -9.01%E -4.01%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -0.720%E -0.240%K -0.360%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -10.01%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -9.01%E -4.01%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -0.720%E -0.240%K -0.360%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -10.01%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:30
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -13.06%E -6.07%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.86%EV -0.720%E -0.240%K -0.360%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -6.04%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 18:25
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -9.82%E -4.40%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -2.37%E -0.805%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -11.33%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-02 18:30
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -9.82%E -4.40%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -2.37%E -0.805%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -11.33%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-02 18:30
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -9.82%E -4.40%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -2.37%E -0.805%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -11.33%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-02 18:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -9.82%E -4.40%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -2.37%E -0.805%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -11.33%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-02 18:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -9.82%E -4.40%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -2.37%E -0.805%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -11.33%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-02 18:30
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -9.82%E -4.40%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -2.37%E -0.805%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -11.33%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-02 18:30
betPARX🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.29%EV -9.82%E -4.40%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.22%EV -2.37%E -0.805%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -11.33%E -3.38%K -4.82%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-02 18:30
1xBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.38%EV -6.18%E -2.66%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.88%EV -3.37%E -1.15%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.74%EV -1.27%E -0.341%K -0.467%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-02 18:40
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-02 18:39
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -9.01%E -4.01%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 18:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -9.01%E -4.01%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -9.01%E -4.01%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 18:20
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -9.01%E -4.01%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-02 18:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -11.04%E -5.02%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-02 18:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -11.04%E -5.02%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -4.03%E -1.39%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -12.65%E -3.83%K -5.50%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-02 18:30
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -4.69%E -1.63%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -10.01%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 18:35
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.19%EV -11.84%E -5.43%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.18%EV -4.69%E -1.63%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.63%EV -13.98%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-02 18:30
Pinnacle🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.14%EV -2.54%E -1.06%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.71%EV -5.02%E -1.75%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.15%EV -2.07%E -0.559%K -0.766%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-02 18:35
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 18:35
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -8.68%E -2.52%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.17%EV -12.25%E -5.64%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.35%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -13.98%E -4.30%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-02 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.22%EV -13.06%E -6.07%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.69%EV -15.30%E -4.78%K -6.96%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-02 18:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.22%EV -13.06%E -6.07%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -5.68%E -1.99%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.69%EV -15.30%E -4.78%K -6.96%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-02 18:30
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -4.97%E -2.11%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 18:35
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -4.97%E -2.11%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.68%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 18:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -4.97%E -2.11%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-02 18:35
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 18:39
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 18:30
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 18:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.03%EV -5.78%E -2.48%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -7.34%E -2.62%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 18:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.94%EV -2.14%E -0.884%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.14%EV -8.66%E -3.14%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-02 18:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.94%EV -2.14%E -0.884%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.14%EV -8.66%E -3.14%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-02 18:40
BetUS🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.94%EV -2.14%E -0.884%K -1.51%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.14%EV -8.66%E -3.14%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-02 18:40
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -4.97%E -2.11%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-02 18:44
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-02 18:30
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -6.04%E -1.70%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 18:30
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.74%EV -6.18%E -2.66%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.53%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.73%EV -8.68%E -2.52%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-02 18:29
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.74%EV -6.18%E -2.66%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.53%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.73%EV -8.68%E -2.52%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-02 18:30
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.01%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 18:30
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.01%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 18:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.01%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 18:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.01%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 18:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.02%EV -11.04%E -5.02%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.82%EV -8.99%E -3.27%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.16%EV -8.68%E -2.52%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-02 18:34
Bovada🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 39.95%EV -6.59%E -2.85%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.68%EV -9.32%E -3.40%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-02 18:29
Codere (IT)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.76%EV -7.80%E -3.42%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -10.65%E -3.94%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -10.01%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-02 18:40
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -13.06%E -6.07%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -10.65%E -3.94%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -7.36%E -2.10%K -2.94%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-02 18:44
NetBet (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 40.15%EV -10.23%E -4.61%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.63%EV -12.30%E -4.64%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -10.01%E -2.94%K -4.17%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-02 18:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 41.00%3.03I 33.00%NM 33.02%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.98%-0.0%2026-09-02 18:35
Smarkets2.44I 40.98%NM 40.66%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%0.8%2026-09-02 18:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.66%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%0.8%2026-09-02 18:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.66%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%0.8%2026-09-02 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.66%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%0.8%2026-09-02 18:30
Matchbook2.44I 40.98%NM 40.66%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.81%0.8%2026-09-02 18:30