Language:English
Motherwell v Aberdeen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Motherwell (Local)
Prediction 44.53%2.25fair odd
EV +4.66%
Edge +1.98%
Kelly +3.45%
Growth +0.161%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.98%44.23%44.54%47.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.102.092.3552.36%47.51%47.85%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Aberdeen (Visit)
Prediction 28.43%3.52fair odd
EV +0.934%
Edge +0.263%
Kelly +0.366%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 3.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.22%28.74%28.49%32.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.213.253.5535.09%31.17%30.77%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.03%3.70fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -0.745%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.14%27.03%26.97%27.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.403.403.6030.77%29.44%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Motherwell (Local): 44.53%; Aberdeen (Visit): 28.43%; Draw: 27.03%. For Motherwell (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.25. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.66%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.98%EV +4.66%E +1.98%K +3.45%G +0.161% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -17.55%E -6.05%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-19 14:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV +0.203%E +0.090%K +0.162%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -18.12%E -6.29%K -9.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-18 19:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.46%EV +0.203%E +0.090%K +0.162%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -18.97%E -6.66%K -10.25%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-18 19:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -2.02%E -0.920%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -14.70%E -4.90%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-16 22:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -2.02%E -0.920%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -14.70%E -4.90%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-16 22:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -2.02%E -0.920%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -14.70%E -4.90%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-16 22:04 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -2.02%E -0.920%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -14.70%E -4.90%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-16 22:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.25%E -1.98%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -6.17%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-18 19:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -4.25%E -1.98%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-16 22:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.25%E -1.98%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 22:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.25%E -1.98%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 22:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.25%E -1.98%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-16 22:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -4.25%E -1.98%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -9.02%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-16 22:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -4.25%E -1.98%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -17.55%E -6.05%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-18 19:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.82%EV -5.59%E -2.64%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.79%EV -6.17%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -2.68%E -0.745%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-17 05:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.12%EV -5.59%E -2.64%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -6.74%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-19 21:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.12%EV -5.59%E -2.64%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -6.74%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-19 21:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.48%E -3.08%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -6.17%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -2.68%E -0.745%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-17 05:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.48%E -3.08%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -6.17%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -2.68%E -0.745%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-17 05:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.48%E -3.08%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -6.17%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -2.68%E -0.745%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-17 05:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -6.48%E -3.08%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-17 05:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.48%E -3.08%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.11%EV -5.61%E -1.69%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-19 07:28 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.50%EV -7.37%E -3.54%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.66%EV +0.934%E +0.263%K +0.366%G +0.003% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-14 07:22 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.50%EV -7.37%E -3.54%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.66%EV +0.934%E +0.263%K +0.366%G +0.003% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-14 07:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -7.37%E -3.54%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.02%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-19 21:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -7.37%E -3.54%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.02%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-19 21:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -7.37%E -3.54%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.02%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-19 21:21 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -7.37%E -3.54%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.02%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-19 21:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -7.37%E -3.54%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.02%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-19 21:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -7.37%E -3.54%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.02%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-19 21:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -7.37%E -3.54%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.02%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-19 21:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.99%EV -7.81%E -3.77%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -0.487%E -0.139%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.81%EV -4.03%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-16 22:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.24%EV -7.81%E -3.77%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.38%EV -2.76%E -0.808%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.38%EV -7.55%E -2.21%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-15 11:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.89%EV -8.26%E -4.01%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -10.44%E -3.31%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-19 21:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -8.70%E -4.25%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-17 05:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -8.70%E -4.25%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-17 04:54 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -8.70%E -4.25%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-17 04:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.01%EV -8.70%E -4.25%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.64%EV -10.44%E -3.31%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-19 21:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 43.75%EV -9.15%E -4.48%K -8.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -11.86%E -3.83%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.46%EV -12.14%E -3.74%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-19 21:21 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -10.04%E -4.97%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -4.75%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-16 22:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.99%EV -10.04%E -4.97%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -11.86%E -3.83%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -12.14%E -3.74%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-19 21:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 43.99%EV -10.04%E -4.97%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -11.86%E -3.83%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -12.14%E -3.74%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-19 21:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -14.05%E -7.28%K -15.11%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -0.487%E -0.139%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-14 07:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.52%EV -14.94%E -7.82%K -16.42%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.14%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-17 08:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (2)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.77% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.10% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13% | 3.1% | 2026-08-21 12:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16% | 8.3% | 2026-08-17 05:55 |