The School of Odds
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Motherwell v Aberdeen

2026-08-22 14:00 UTC — Premiership - Scotland

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Motherwell (Local)

Prediction 40.40%2.48fair odd
EV -3.03%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -2.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.63%40.36%40.42%41.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.142.262.252.4046.73%44.19%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aberdeen (Visit)

Prediction 32.01%3.12fair odd
EV -0.781%
Edge -0.252%
Kelly -0.372%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.27%31.91%32.03%32.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.932.913.1036.36%34.08%34.42%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.59%3.62fair odd
EV -0.676%
Edge -0.188%
Kelly -0.260%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.50%27.74%27.54%29.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.293.253.6032.26%30.44%30.77%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Motherwell (Local): 40.40%; Aberdeen (Visit): 32.01%; Draw: 27.59%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.62. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.60, with an expected value of -0.676%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.57%EV -3.03%E -1.26%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.65%EV -3.98%E -1.33%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -8.95%E -2.71%K -3.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 11:40
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -3.84%E -1.61%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.97%EV -7.82%E -2.72%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -3.44%E -0.981%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 11:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -3.84%E -1.61%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -7.18%E -2.48%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -14.47%E -4.67%K -6.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-12 11:40
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -3.84%E -1.61%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -7.18%E -2.48%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -14.47%E -4.67%K -6.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-12 11:44
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -3.84%E -1.61%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -7.18%E -2.48%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -14.47%E -4.67%K -6.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-12 11:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -3.84%E -1.61%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -7.18%E -2.48%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -14.47%E -4.67%K -6.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-12 11:45
1xBet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 39.70%EV -4.65%E -1.97%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.08%EV -6.54%E -2.24%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.22%EV -8.40%E -2.53%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-12 11:40
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.60%EV -5.05%E -2.15%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.90%EV -7.18%E -2.48%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -0.676%E -0.188%K -0.260%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-12 11:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.29%EV -5.05%E -2.15%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -7.18%E -2.48%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -3.44%E -0.981%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-12 11:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.29%EV -5.05%E -2.15%K -3.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -7.18%E -2.48%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -3.44%E -0.981%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-12 11:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.86%EV -5.45%E -2.33%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.05%EV -6.86%E -2.36%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.09%EV -8.40%E -2.53%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-12 11:44
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.68%EV -7.88%E -3.46%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.16%EV -2.38%E -0.781%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -3.44%E -0.981%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-12 11:40
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.68%EV -7.88%E -3.46%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.16%EV -2.38%E -0.781%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -3.44%E -0.981%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-12 11:44
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -9.09%E -4.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -0.781%E -0.252%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -7.57%E -2.26%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-12 11:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -9.09%E -4.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -0.781%E -0.252%K -0.372%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -7.57%E -2.26%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-12 11:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -9.09%E -4.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -8.78%E -3.08%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -6.19%E -1.82%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-12 11:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.46%EV -9.09%E -4.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -8.78%E -3.08%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -8.95%E -2.71%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-12 11:40
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -9.09%E -4.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -10.38%E -3.71%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -8.95%E -2.71%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-12 11:40
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.66%EV -9.09%E -4.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.45%EV -11.98%E -4.36%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -11.71%E -3.66%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-12 12:09
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -11.11%E -5.05%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -3.98%E -1.33%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.33%E -3.18%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-12 11:39
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -11.11%E -5.05%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -3.98%E -1.33%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.33%E -3.18%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-12 11:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -11.11%E -5.05%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -3.98%E -1.33%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.33%E -3.18%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-12 11:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -11.11%E -5.05%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -3.98%E -1.33%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.33%E -3.18%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-12 11:39
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -11.11%E -5.05%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -3.98%E -1.33%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.33%E -3.18%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-12 11:39
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -11.11%E -5.05%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -3.98%E -1.33%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.33%E -3.18%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-12 11:40
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -11.11%E -5.05%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -3.98%E -1.33%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.33%E -3.18%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-12 13:49
BetRivers🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.43%EV -12.32%E -5.68%K -10.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.48%EV -5.58%E -1.89%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -11.71%E -3.66%K -5.32%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-12 11:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 41.54%EV -12.73%E -5.89%K -10.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.42%EV -5.58%E -1.89%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.04%EV -11.71%E -3.66%K -5.32%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-12 11:44
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.75%EV -13.13%E -6.11%K -11.42%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -11.98%E -4.36%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.38%EV -11.71%E -3.66%K -5.32%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-12 11:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.37%EV -13.54%E -6.33%K -11.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.53%EV -7.18%E -2.48%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.10%EV -13.09%E -4.16%K -6.09%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-12 11:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.37%EV -13.54%E -6.33%K -11.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.53%EV -7.18%E -2.48%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.10%EV -13.09%E -4.16%K -6.09%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-12 11:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 41.37%EV -13.54%E -6.33%K -11.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.53%EV -7.18%E -2.48%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.10%EV -13.09%E -4.16%K -6.09%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-12 11:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.16I 46.30%NM 40.15%2.72I 36.76%NM 31.88%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.97%15.3%2026-08-12 11:40

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