Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Motherwell v Aberdeen

Início: 2026-08-22 14:00 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

44 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Motherwell (Local)

Previsão 44.53%2.25odd justa
EV +4.66%
Vantagem +1.98%
Kelly +3.45%
Crescimento +0.161%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.35

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
39.98%44.23%44.54%47.55%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.912.102.092.3552.36%47.51%47.85%42.55%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Aberdeen (Visitante)

Previsão 28.43%3.52odd justa
EV +0.934%
Vantagem +0.263%
Kelly +0.366%
Crescimento +0.003%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.55

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.22%28.74%28.49%32.39%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.853.213.253.5535.09%31.17%30.77%28.17%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.03%3.70odd justa
EV -2.68%
Vantagem -0.745%
Kelly -1.03%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.14%27.03%26.97%27.84%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.253.403.403.6030.77%29.44%29.41%27.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Motherwell (Local): 44.53%; Aberdeen (Visitante): 28.43%; Empate: 27.03%. Para Motherwell (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.25. 3 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 2.35, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +4.66%.

Odds das casas de apostas (44 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.98%EV +4.66%E +1.98%K +3.45%G +0.161%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -17.55%E -6.05%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-19 14:00
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV +0.203%E +0.090%K +0.162%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -18.12%E -6.29%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-18 19:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.46%EV +0.203%E +0.090%K +0.162%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.95%EV -18.97%E -6.66%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-18 19:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -2.02%E -0.920%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -14.70%E -4.90%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-16 22:05
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -2.02%E -0.920%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -14.70%E -4.90%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-16 22:05
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -2.02%E -0.920%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -14.70%E -4.90%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-16 22:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -2.02%E -0.920%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -14.70%E -4.90%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-16 22:04
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.25%E -1.98%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -6.17%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-18 19:10
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -4.25%E -1.98%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-16 22:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.25%E -1.98%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 22:39
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.25%E -1.98%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 22:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.25%E -1.98%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 22:39
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -4.25%E -1.98%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -9.02%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-16 22:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -4.25%E -1.98%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -17.55%E -6.05%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-18 19:15
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.82%EV -5.59%E -2.64%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.79%EV -6.17%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -2.68%E -0.745%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-17 05:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.12%EV -5.59%E -2.64%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -6.74%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-19 21:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.12%EV -5.59%E -2.64%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.11%EV -6.74%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-19 21:20
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.48%E -3.08%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -6.17%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -2.68%E -0.745%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-17 05:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.48%E -3.08%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -6.17%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -2.68%E -0.745%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-17 05:54
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.48%E -3.08%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -6.17%E -1.87%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -2.68%E -0.745%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-17 05:55
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -6.48%E -3.08%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-17 05:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.48%E -3.08%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.11%EV -5.61%E -1.69%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-19 07:28
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.50%EV -7.37%E -3.54%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.66%EV +0.934%E +0.263%K +0.366%G +0.003%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-14 07:22
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.50%EV -7.37%E -3.54%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.66%EV +0.934%E +0.263%K +0.366%G +0.003%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-14 07:24
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -7.37%E -3.54%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.02%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-19 21:19
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -7.37%E -3.54%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.02%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-19 21:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -7.37%E -3.54%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.02%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-19 21:21
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -7.37%E -3.54%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.02%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-19 21:20
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -7.37%E -3.54%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.02%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-19 21:19
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -7.37%E -3.54%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.02%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-19 21:20
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -7.37%E -3.54%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.02%E -2.82%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -9.44%E -2.82%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-19 21:19
Pinnacle🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.99%EV -7.81%E -3.77%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -0.487%E -0.139%K -0.195%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.81%EV -4.03%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-16 22:10
1xBet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.24%EV -7.81%E -3.77%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.38%EV -2.76%E -0.808%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.38%EV -7.55%E -2.21%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 11:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.89%EV -8.26%E -4.01%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -10.44%E -3.31%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-19 21:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -8.70%E -4.25%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-17 05:55
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -8.70%E -4.25%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-17 04:54
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -8.70%E -4.25%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-17 04:54
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.01%EV -8.70%E -4.25%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.64%EV -10.44%E -3.31%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -10.79%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-19 21:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 43.75%EV -9.15%E -4.48%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.79%EV -11.86%E -3.83%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.46%EV -12.14%E -3.74%K -5.40%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-19 21:21
Bovada🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -10.04%E -4.97%K -9.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -4.75%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 22:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.99%EV -10.04%E -4.97%K -9.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -11.86%E -3.83%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -12.14%E -3.74%K -5.40%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-19 21:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.99%EV -10.04%E -4.97%K -9.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -11.86%E -3.83%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -12.14%E -3.74%K -5.40%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-19 21:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -14.05%E -7.28%K -15.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -0.487%E -0.139%K -0.195%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-14 07:30
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.52%EV -14.94%E -7.82%K -16.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -7.60%E -2.34%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.14%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-17 08:35
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (2)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 40.77%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.10%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13%3.1%2026-08-21 12:30
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%8.3%2026-08-17 05:55