Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hearts v Dundee FC

Inicio: 2026-09-06 14:00 UTC

Final: Hearts 2–1 Dundee FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Hearts (Local)

Predicción 65.44%1.53momio equitativo
EV -1.84%
Ventaja -1.23%
Kelly -3.68%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
62.34%65.38%65.31%67.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.371.431.431.5072.99%69.92%69.93%66.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Dundee FC (Visitante)

Predicción 14.31%6.99momio equitativo
EV +9.04%
Ventaja +1.19%
Kelly +1.36%
Crecimiento +0.123%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.62

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.63%14.31%14.42%15.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.606.326.357.6217.86%15.82%15.75%13.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 20.25%4.94momio equitativo
EV -2.79%
Ventaja -0.582%
Kelly -0.735%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.48%20.31%20.27%21.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.104.504.504.8024.39%22.22%22.22%20.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Hearts (Local): 65.44%; Dundee FC (Visitante): 14.31%; Empate: 20.25%. Para Dundee FC (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.99. 7 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 7.62, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +9.04%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.90%EV -4.46%E -3.05%K -9.69%G +0.000%7.62I 13.12%NM 12.63%EV +9.04%E +1.19%K +1.36%G +0.123%4.48I 22.32%NM 21.48%EV -9.27%E -2.07%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-06 13:59
Pinnacle🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.32%EV -5.11%E -3.53%K -11.36%G +0.000%7.18I 13.93%NM 13.39%EV +2.74%E +0.381%K +0.443%G +0.012%4.74I 21.10%NM 20.29%EV -4.01%E -0.846%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-06 13:59
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -8.38%E -5.99%K -20.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV +0.163%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -2.79%E -0.582%K -0.735%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-06 12:20
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -8.38%E -5.99%K -20.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV +0.163%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -2.79%E -0.582%K -0.735%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-06 12:20
SportsBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.32%EV -7.73%E -5.48%K -18.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV +0.163%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.33%EV -6.84%E -1.49%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 13:44
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -8.38%E -5.99%K -20.96%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV +0.163%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -8.87%E -1.97%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-06 13:45
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -9.69%E -7.02%K -25.51%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +0.163%E +0.023%K +0.027%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -6.84%E -1.49%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 13:44
Betsson🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.82%EV -6.42%E -4.49%K -14.93%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.63%EV -2.70%E -0.397%K -0.465%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.55%EV -12.92%E -3.00%K -3.91%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-06 13:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.98%EV -10.35%E -7.55%K -27.97%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.49%EV -2.70%E -0.397%K -0.465%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.52%EV -4.82%E -1.03%K -1.30%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 13:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.69%EV -7.08%E -4.98%K -16.85%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 14.03%EV -4.84%E -0.729%K -0.857%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -6.84%E -1.49%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 12:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.62%EV -7.08%E -4.98%K -16.85%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.12%EV -5.56%E -0.842%K -0.993%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -6.84%E -1.49%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 13:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.62%EV -7.08%E -4.98%K -16.85%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.12%EV -5.56%E -0.842%K -0.993%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -6.84%E -1.49%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 13:55
BetUS🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.62%EV -7.08%E -4.98%K -16.85%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.12%EV -5.56%E -0.842%K -0.993%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -6.84%E -1.49%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 13:59
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.12%EV -3.80%E -2.59%K -8.09%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.73%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.15%EV -3.81%E -0.801%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-06 06:29
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -5.77%E -4.00%K -13.11%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.84%E -1.49%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 06:29
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.61%EV -6.42%E -4.49%K -14.93%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.43%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.96%EV -4.82%E -1.03%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 13:35
LeoVegas🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.04%EV -7.08%E -4.98%K -16.85%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.43%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -2.79%E -0.582%K -0.735%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 12:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.90%EV -7.08%E -4.98%K -16.85%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -3.81%E -0.801%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 06:30
Fanatics🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.90%EV -7.08%E -4.98%K -16.85%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -3.81%E -0.801%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 13:25
Betway🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.03%EV -6.42%E -4.49%K -14.93%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.66%EV -8.87%E -1.97%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-06 13:34
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -8.38%E -5.99%K -20.96%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -3.81%E -0.801%K -1.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-06 13:45
Bovada🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.04%EV -7.08%E -4.98%K -16.85%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.21%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.75%EV -9.88%E -2.22%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 13:59
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -8.38%E -5.99%K -20.96%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -10.89%E -2.48%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 13:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -8.38%E -5.99%K -20.96%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -10.89%E -2.48%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 13:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -8.38%E -5.99%K -20.96%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -10.89%E -2.48%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 13:59
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -8.38%E -5.99%K -20.96%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -6.99%E -1.08%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -10.89%E -2.48%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 13:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.79%EV -1.84%E -1.23%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.95%EV -8.42%E -1.32%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.26%EV -8.87%E -1.97%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-06 13:40
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.80%EV -5.11%E -3.53%K -11.36%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.68%EV -9.85%E -1.56%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -12.92%E -3.00%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-06 13:58
Betr (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.15%E -2.13%K -6.56%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.19%EV -10.57%E -1.69%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.64%EV -6.84%E -1.49%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 12:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.03%EV -3.80%E -2.59%K -8.09%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.06%EV -10.57%E -1.69%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.92%EV -8.87%E -1.97%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 12:40
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.88%EV -5.11%E -3.53%K -11.36%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.82%EV -10.57%E -1.69%K -2.01%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.29%EV -11.91%E -2.74%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 13:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.07%EV -8.38%E -5.99%K -20.96%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.69%EV -11.28%E -1.82%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -8.87%E -1.97%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 06:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.70%EV -10.35%E -7.55%K -27.97%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.52%EV -11.28%E -1.82%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.78%EV -7.86%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-06 13:34
NetBet (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.79%EV -9.69%E -7.02%K -25.51%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.42%EV -11.28%E -1.82%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.79%EV -12.92%E -3.00%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-06 13:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.01%EV -2.50%E -1.67%K -5.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -10.89%E -2.48%K -3.20%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-06 13:59
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -5.77%E -4.00%K -13.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -2.79%E -0.582%K -0.735%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 12:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -5.77%E -4.00%K -13.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -2.79%E -0.582%K -0.735%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 12:35
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -5.77%E -4.00%K -13.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -2.79%E -0.582%K -0.735%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 12:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -5.77%E -4.00%K -13.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -2.79%E -0.582%K -0.735%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 12:40
BetMGM🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -5.77%E -4.00%K -13.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -2.79%E -0.582%K -0.735%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 12:40
Bet Right🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.49%EV -4.46%E -3.05%K -9.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -10.89%E -2.48%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-06 12:40
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -8.38%E -5.99%K -20.96%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -14.15%E -2.36%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -8.87%E -1.97%K -2.53%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 13:59
Casumo🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.68%EV -3.80%E -2.59%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.89%EV -17.01%E -2.93%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -12.92%E -3.00%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 13:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.68%EV -3.80%E -2.59%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.89%EV -17.01%E -2.93%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -12.92%E -3.00%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 13:59
Grosvenor🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.68%EV -3.80%E -2.59%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.89%EV -17.01%E -2.93%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV -12.92%E -3.00%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 13:59
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.85%EV -5.11%E -3.53%K -11.36%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.71%EV -17.01%E -2.93%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.44%EV -13.93%E -3.28%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 13:45
TABtouch🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.85%EV -5.11%E -3.53%K -11.36%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.71%EV -17.01%E -2.93%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.44%EV -13.93%E -3.28%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 13:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.85%EV -5.11%E -3.53%K -11.36%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.71%EV -17.01%E -2.93%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.44%EV -13.93%E -3.28%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 13:40
betPARX🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.85%EV -5.11%E -3.53%K -11.36%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.71%EV -17.01%E -2.93%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.44%EV -13.93%E -3.28%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 13:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.76%EV -5.77%E -4.00%K -13.11%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.72%EV -17.72%E -3.08%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -14.94%E -3.56%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-06 13:40
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.60%EV -6.42%E -4.49%K -14.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.57%EV -17.72%E -3.08%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.83%EV -16.97%E -4.14%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 13:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.34%EV -6.42%E -4.49%K -14.93%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.92%EV -19.87%E -3.55%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.74%EV -16.97%E -4.14%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-06 13:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 62.50%EV -7.08%E -4.98%K -16.85%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.85%EV -19.87%E -3.55%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.65%EV -16.97%E -4.14%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-06 13:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 62.50%EV -7.08%E -4.98%K -16.85%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.85%EV -19.87%E -3.55%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.65%EV -16.97%E -4.14%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-06 13:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.46%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.71%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%0.8%2026-09-06 13:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.46%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.71%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%0.8%2026-09-06 13:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.46%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.71%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%0.8%2026-09-06 13:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.46%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.71%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%0.8%2026-09-06 13:40
Matchbook◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.46%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.71%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%0.8%2026-09-06 13:40
Kalshi◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.87%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.80%1.0%2026-09-06 13:45