Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Falkirk F.C. v Hearts

Kickoff: 2026-09-15 18:45 UTC

Final: Falkirk F.C. 2–1 Hearts

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Falkirk F.C. (Local)

Prediction 25.15%3.98fair odd
EV +0.078%
Edge +0.019%
Kelly +0.026%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.53%25.13%25.09%26.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.683.703.9829.41%27.14%27.03%25.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hearts (Visit)

Prediction 49.06%2.04fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -0.943%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.92%48.99%49.17%50.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.891.902.0056.50%52.85%52.63%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.80%3.88fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -0.518%
Kelly -0.702%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.94%25.88%25.74%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.603.603.8029.41%27.78%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Falkirk F.C. (Local): 25.15%; Hearts (Visit): 49.06%; Draw: 25.80%. For Falkirk F.C. (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.977. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.980, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.078%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.98I 25.13%NM 24.25%EV +0.078%E +0.019%K +0.026%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.01%EV -5.32%E -2.76%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.74%EV -3.26%E -0.868%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-15 18:41
FanDuel🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -1.93%E -0.496%K -0.667%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -6.30%E -3.30%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -7.13%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-15 18:28
Tipico (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -1.93%E -0.496%K -0.667%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -11.70%E -6.50%K -14.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -7.13%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-15 18:30
Fanatics🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -4.45%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.30%E -3.30%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -7.13%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-15 18:21
Svenska Spel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -4.45%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.93%EV -7.77%E -4.13%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -4.55%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-15 18:20
ATG (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -4.45%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.93%EV -7.77%E -4.13%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.37%EV -4.55%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-15 18:20
SportsBet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -4.45%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.32%EV -6.79%E -3.57%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -7.13%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-15 18:30
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.66%EV -4.45%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.32%EV -6.79%E -3.57%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -7.13%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-15 18:26
Coolbet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.36%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.28%EV -5.32%E -2.76%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.36%EV -3.26%E -0.868%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-15 18:35
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.54%EV -6.30%E -3.30%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -3.26%E -0.868%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-15 18:35
LowVig.ag🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.76%EV -5.32%E -2.76%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -7.13%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-15 18:35
BetOnline.ag🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.76%EV -5.32%E -2.76%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -7.13%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-15 18:35
betano_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.50%EV -6.79%E -3.57%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.55%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-15 18:35
Sky Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.23%EV -8.26%E -4.42%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -1.97%E -0.518%K -0.702%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-15 18:25
BetUS🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -6.30%E -3.30%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -7.13%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-15 18:35
LiveScore Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.80%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.73%EV -8.26%E -4.42%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -5.84%E -1.60%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-15 18:20
Virgin Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.80%EV -5.71%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.73%EV -8.26%E -4.42%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.48%EV -5.84%E -1.60%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-15 18:20
Marathon Bet🎯3.74I 26.74%NM 24.85%EV -5.96%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.18%EV -7.28%E -3.85%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.96%EV -7.64%E -2.13%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-15 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -6.96%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.37%EV -6.30%E -3.30%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -3.26%E -0.868%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-15 18:35
Betr (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -6.96%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.50%EV -6.79%E -3.57%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -3.26%E -0.868%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-15 18:35
Bet Victor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -6.96%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.30%E -3.30%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -4.55%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-15 18:38
DraftKings🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -6.96%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -6.30%E -3.30%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -4.55%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-15 18:16
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -6.96%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -5.81%E -3.03%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -11.00%E -3.19%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-15 18:35
NordicBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -6.96%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -5.81%E -3.03%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -11.00%E -3.19%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-15 18:36
PlayUp🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -6.96%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.63%EV -6.79%E -3.57%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -9.71%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-15 18:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -6.96%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -6.30%E -3.30%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -12.29%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-15 18:21
888sport (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -6.96%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -6.30%E -3.30%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -12.29%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-15 18:20
888sport🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -6.96%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -6.30%E -3.30%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -12.29%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-15 18:21
Unibet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -6.96%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -9.25%E -5.00%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.13%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-15 18:20
Unibet (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -6.96%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -9.25%E -5.00%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.13%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-15 18:20
TABtouch🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -6.96%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -9.25%E -5.00%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.13%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-15 18:20
Casumo🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -6.96%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -9.25%E -5.00%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.13%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-15 18:20
Grosvenor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -6.96%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -9.25%E -5.00%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.13%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-15 18:21
Unibet (NL)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -6.96%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -9.25%E -5.00%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.13%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-15 18:20
William Hill🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -6.96%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -9.25%E -5.00%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -12.29%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-15 18:25
LeoVegas🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.92%EV -8.22%E -2.25%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.51%EV -4.34%E -2.23%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -4.55%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-15 18:35
PMU (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -8.22%E -2.25%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.58%EV -10.23%E -5.59%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -8.42%E -2.37%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-15 18:20
Coral🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -1.89%E -0.943%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -7.13%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-15 14:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.60%EV -5.32%E -2.76%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -4.55%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-15 18:20
Bet Right🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.99%EV -6.79%E -3.57%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -4.55%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-15 18:35
Betway🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.30%E -3.30%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.13%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-15 18:16
betPARX🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -9.25%E -5.00%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -4.55%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-15 18:44
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -10.23%E -5.59%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -9.71%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-15 18:25
BetRivers🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.96%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.37%EV -10.72%E -5.89%K -13.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.67%EV -9.71%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-15 18:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -9.48%E -2.63%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 49.51%EV -11.21%E -6.19%K -13.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -9.71%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-15 18:20
1xBet🎯3.57I 28.01%NM 25.21%EV -10.23%E -2.87%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 50.85%EV -13.17%E -7.44%K -17.10%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 23.94%EV -3.00%E -0.798%K -1.09%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-15 18:40
NetBet (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -10.73%E -3.02%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.01%EV -10.72%E -5.89%K -13.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.86%EV -11.00%E -3.19%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-15 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -1.89%E -0.943%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.13%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-15 14:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -1.89%E -0.943%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.13%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-15 14:50
Neds🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -1.89%E -0.943%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.13%E -1.98%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-15 14:50
BetMGM🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.92%EV -2.87%E -1.45%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -9.71%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-15 14:49
Codere (IT)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -11.99%E -3.43%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.21%EV -7.77%E -4.13%K -8.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -9.71%E -2.77%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-15 18:20
Unibet (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -14.51%E -4.27%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.16%EV -10.23%E -5.59%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -12.29%E -3.61%K -5.12%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-15 18:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.27%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.85%0.5%2026-09-15 18:36
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.27%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.85%0.5%2026-09-15 18:35
Smarkets◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.10%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-09-15 18:41
Matchbook◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.10%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-09-15 18:41
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.10%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-09-15 18:41
Kalshi◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.51%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.02%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.47%2.0%2026-09-15 18:41