Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dundee FC v Livingston

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 14:02 UTC

Final: Dundee FC 3–0 Livingston

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dundee FC (Local)

Prediction 52.60%1.90fair odd
EV -3.74%
Edge -2.04%
Kelly -4.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.80%52.72%52.58%53.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.771.771.8361.35%56.45%56.34%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Livingston (Visit)

Prediction 22.25%4.49fair odd
EV +0.129%
Edge +0.029%
Kelly +0.037%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.82%22.16%22.25%23.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.164.154.5026.32%24.03%24.10%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.15%3.98fair odd
EV +1.85%
Edge +0.457%
Kelly +0.606%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 4.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.67%25.12%25.17%25.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.703.704.0528.17%27.00%27.03%24.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dundee FC (Local): 52.60%; Livingston (Visit): 22.25%; Draw: 25.15%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.85%.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.67%EV -4.27%E -2.34%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.67%EV -9.88%E -2.44%K -3.24%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.67%EV +1.85%E +0.457%K +0.606%G +0.011%4.3%2026-05-09 13:59
Coolbet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.57%EV -6.37%E -3.58%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.67%EV -2.10%E -0.476%K -0.616%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -3.18%E -0.826%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-09 13:59
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.75%EV -3.74%E -2.04%K -4.51%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 22.04%EV -2.54%E -0.580%K -0.752%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.21%EV -3.68%E -0.962%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-09 13:59
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -5.32%E -2.95%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -6.55%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -4.44%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 13:59
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -5.32%E -2.95%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -6.55%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -4.44%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 13:59
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -7.95%E -4.54%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.67%EV -3.65%E -0.844%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV -4.44%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 13:58
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -7.95%E -4.54%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -6.55%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -4.44%E -1.17%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 13:59
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.75%EV -5.32%E -2.95%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.93%EV -3.65%E -0.844%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.32%EV -5.70%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 14:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.61%EV -6.90%E -3.90%K -8.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV +0.129%E +0.029%K +0.037%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.70%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 13:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.12%EV -4.27%E -2.34%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -6.55%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.70%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 13:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.12%EV -4.27%E -2.34%K -5.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -6.55%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.70%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-09 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -5.32%E -2.95%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -6.55%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.70%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-09 13:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.67%EV -6.37%E -3.58%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -6.55%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.70%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 13:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.24%EV -7.95%E -4.54%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -5.43%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -5.70%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 13:59
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -9.00%E -5.20%K -12.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -11.00%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -5.70%E -1.52%K -2.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-09 13:59
Unibet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -5.32%E -2.95%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -6.55%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -5.32%E -2.95%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -6.55%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 14:00
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -5.32%E -2.95%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -6.55%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 14:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -5.32%E -2.95%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -6.55%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-09 14:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.80%EV -4.79%E -2.65%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -8.77%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 13:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.80%EV -4.79%E -2.65%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -8.77%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 13:59
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.85%EV -8.47%E -4.87%K -11.45%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV +0.129%E +0.029%K +0.037%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-09 13:58
Marathon Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.77%EV -6.90%E -3.90%K -8.96%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -5.43%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 13:59
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.36%EV -6.37%E -3.58%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.46%EV -7.66%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 13:59
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.36%EV -6.37%E -3.58%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.46%EV -7.66%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-09 14:00
Bet Right🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.92%EV -7.42%E -4.22%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.91%EV -5.43%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-09 13:59
TABtouch🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.21%EV -6.37%E -3.58%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -8.77%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 14:00
Casumo🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.21%EV -6.37%E -3.58%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -8.77%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 14:00
Grosvenor🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.21%EV -6.37%E -3.58%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -8.77%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.21%EV -6.37%E -3.58%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -8.77%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 13:59
Neds🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.21%EV -6.37%E -3.58%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -8.77%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 13:59
betPARX🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.21%EV -6.37%E -3.58%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -8.77%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 14:00
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.35%EV -6.90%E -3.90%K -8.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV -8.77%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.04%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-09 13:59
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -7.95%E -4.54%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -11.00%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-09 13:59
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -7.95%E -4.54%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -11.00%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-09 13:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -7.95%E -4.54%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -11.00%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-09 13:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -7.95%E -4.54%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -11.00%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -6.95%E -1.88%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-09 13:59
Everygame🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.04%EV -5.32%E -2.95%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -6.55%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -8.21%E -2.25%K -3.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-09 13:59
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.60%EV -7.42%E -4.22%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -6.55%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -8.21%E -2.25%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-09 13:49
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.46%EV -7.42%E -4.22%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.25%EV -7.66%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -8.21%E -2.25%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 13:56
BetUS🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.46%EV -7.42%E -4.22%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.25%EV -7.66%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.29%EV -8.21%E -2.25%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 13:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.32%EV -7.42%E -4.22%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.46%EV -8.77%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.23%EV -8.21%E -2.25%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-09 14:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 52.89%EV -11.10%E -6.57%K -16.09%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.63%EV -12.11%E -3.07%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -8.21%E -2.25%K -3.10%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-09 13:59
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -5.32%E -2.95%K -6.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -6.55%E -1.56%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.47%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-09 13:59
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -7.95%E -4.54%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -2.10%E -0.476%K -0.616%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -9.47%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 13:59
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -7.95%E -4.54%K -10.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -2.10%E -0.476%K -0.616%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -9.47%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-09 13:59
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -6.90%E -3.90%K -8.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -8.77%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -9.47%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 14:00
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -6.90%E -3.90%K -8.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -8.77%E -2.14%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -9.47%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.13%EV -8.47%E -4.87%K -11.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -11.00%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -9.47%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 14:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.13%EV -8.47%E -4.87%K -11.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -11.00%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -9.47%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 13:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.13%EV -8.47%E -4.87%K -11.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -11.00%E -2.75%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -9.47%E -2.63%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-09 14:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 52.96%EV -14.26%E -8.75%K -22.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.72%EV -15.45%E -4.06%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.32%EV -10.73%E -3.02%K -4.21%G +0.000%15.8%2026-05-09 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.86I 53.76%NM 53.64%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.78%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.58%0.2%2026-05-09 14:00
Matchbook1.86I 53.76%NM 53.64%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.78%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.58%0.2%2026-05-09 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.40%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.47%0.7%2026-05-09 13:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.40%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.47%0.7%2026-05-09 13:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.40%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.13%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.47%0.7%2026-05-09 14:00
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 53.50%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.75%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%1.0%2026-05-09 14:00