Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aberdeen v Kilmarnock

2026-09-05 14:00 UTC — Premiership - Scotland

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aberdeen (Local)

Prediction 51.80%1.93fair odd
EV -7.28%
Edge -4.07%
Kelly -9.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.70%51.80%51.80%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.761.771.7958.48%56.89%56.50%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kilmarnock (Visit)

Prediction 22.82%4.38fair odd
EV -4.17%
Edge -0.993%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.31%22.82%22.82%22.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.064.104.2025.64%24.65%24.39%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.39%3.94fair odd
EV -6.07%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -2.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.33%25.39%25.39%25.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.583.603.7028.99%27.94%27.78%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Aberdeen (Local): 51.80%; Kilmarnock (Visit): 22.82%; Draw: 25.39%. For Kilmarnock (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.38. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.20, with an expected value of -4.17%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.36%EV -7.28%E -4.07%K -9.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -4.17%E -0.993%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -6.07%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-26 14:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.36%EV -7.28%E -4.07%K -9.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -4.17%E -0.993%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -6.07%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-26 14:04
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -8.32%E -4.70%K -10.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -6.45%E -1.57%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-26 14:05
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -8.32%E -4.70%K -10.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -6.45%E -1.57%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-26 14:05
Casumo🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -8.32%E -4.70%K -10.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -6.45%E -1.57%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-26 14:05
TABtouch🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -8.32%E -4.70%K -10.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -6.45%E -1.57%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-26 14:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -8.32%E -4.70%K -10.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -6.45%E -1.57%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-26 14:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -8.32%E -4.70%K -10.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -6.45%E -1.57%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-26 14:05
betPARX🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -8.32%E -4.70%K -10.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -6.45%E -1.57%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-26 14:08
PMU (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.80%EV -9.36%E -5.35%K -12.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -8.73%E -2.18%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -9.87%E -2.78%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-26 14:04
BetRivers🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.80%EV -9.87%E -5.68%K -13.34%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.82%EV -9.87%E -2.50%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -9.87%E -2.78%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-26 14:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.75%EV -10.39%E -6.01%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.67%EV -9.87%E -2.50%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -11.14%E -3.18%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-26 14:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 51.70%EV -11.43%E -6.68%K -16.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.67%EV -11.02%E -2.82%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.63%EV -12.41%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-26 14:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 51.70%EV -11.43%E -6.68%K -16.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.67%EV -11.02%E -2.82%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.63%EV -12.41%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-26 14:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.