Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.78
assuming max odds 4.65
assuming max odds 4.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aberdeen (Local): 54.62%; Kilmarnock (Visit): 21.15%; Draw: 24.23%. For Kilmarnock (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.73. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.65, with an expected value of -1.65%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.67%EV -2.78%E -1.56%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -11.17%E -2.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.13%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 04:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.67%EV -2.78%E -1.56%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -11.17%E -2.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.13%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 04:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.22%EV -4.42%E -2.53%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.06%EV -9.05%E -2.10%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -3.07%E -0.768%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 15:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.75%EV -4.42%E -2.53%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -10.11%E -2.38%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -5.49%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-03 15:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.75%EV -4.42%E -2.53%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -10.11%E -2.38%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -5.49%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-30 15:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.46%EV -4.42%E -2.53%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -13.28%E -3.24%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -11.55%E -3.16%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-04 04:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.46%EV -4.42%E -2.53%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -13.28%E -3.24%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -11.55%E -3.16%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-04 04:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.46%EV -4.42%E -2.53%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -13.28%E -3.24%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -11.55%E -3.16%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-04 04:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.46%EV -4.42%E -2.53%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -13.28%E -3.24%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -11.55%E -3.16%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-04 04:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.46%EV -4.42%E -2.53%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -13.28%E -3.24%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -11.55%E -3.16%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-04 04:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.46%EV -4.42%E -2.53%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -13.28%E -3.24%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -11.55%E -3.16%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-04 04:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.46%EV -4.42%E -2.53%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -13.28%E -3.24%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -11.55%E -3.16%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-04 04:03 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.10%EV -4.97%E -2.85%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 4.62I 21.65%NM 20.75%EV -2.28%E -0.494%K -0.630%G +0.000% | 3.97I 25.19%NM 24.15%EV -3.80%E -0.957%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-04 14:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.61%EV -5.51%E -3.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.47%EV -6.93%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV -4.28%E -1.08%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-03 14:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.58%EV -5.51%E -3.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -8.42%E -1.94%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -3.07%E -0.768%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-30 11:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.58%EV -5.51%E -3.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -8.42%E -1.94%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -3.07%E -0.768%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 02:26 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -5.51%E -3.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -11.17%E -2.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -3.07%E -0.768%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-04 02:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -5.51%E -3.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -11.17%E -2.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -3.07%E -0.768%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-04 02:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -5.51%E -3.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -11.17%E -2.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -3.07%E -0.768%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-04 02:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.10%EV -5.51%E -3.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -6.93%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -7.92%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-04 11:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.10%EV -5.51%E -3.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -6.93%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -7.92%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-04 11:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -5.51%E -3.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.54%EV -8.42%E -1.94%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -7.92%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.89%EV -5.51%E -3.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -11.17%E -2.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -5.49%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-03 15:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.74%EV -5.51%E -3.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.47%EV -8.42%E -1.94%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -9.13%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.74%EV -5.51%E -3.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.47%EV -8.42%E -1.94%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -9.13%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.74%EV -5.51%E -3.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.47%EV -8.42%E -1.94%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -9.13%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.74%EV -5.51%E -3.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.47%EV -8.42%E -1.94%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.79%EV -9.13%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.27%EV -5.51%E -3.19%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -15.40%E -3.85%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -12.76%E -3.55%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-04 04:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.50%EV -6.06%E -3.52%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -4.82%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -7.92%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.50%EV -6.06%E -3.52%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -4.82%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -7.92%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.50%EV -6.06%E -3.52%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -4.82%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -7.92%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.23%EV -6.06%E -3.52%K -8.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -15.40%E -3.85%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.31%EV -13.98%E -3.94%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-04 04:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.33%EV -6.61%E -3.86%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -4.82%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -3.07%E -0.768%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-04 11:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.16%EV -6.61%E -3.86%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -4.82%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -4.28%E -1.08%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.79%EV -6.61%E -3.86%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -4.82%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.40%EV -6.95%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 09:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.51%EV -6.61%E -3.86%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -11.17%E -2.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.30%EV -3.07%E -0.768%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-04 02:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.39%EV -6.61%E -3.86%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -6.93%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -7.92%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-04 11:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.23%EV -6.61%E -3.86%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.61%EV -16.45%E -4.17%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.16%EV -13.98%E -3.94%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-04 04:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -7.15%E -4.21%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -4.82%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -5.49%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-31 14:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.65%EV -7.15%E -4.21%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -11.17%E -2.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -3.07%E -0.768%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 14:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.43%EV -7.15%E -4.21%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -4.82%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -10.34%E -2.79%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-04 14:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.41%EV -7.15%E -4.21%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.89%EV -1.65%E -0.354%K -0.451%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -12.76%E -3.55%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-04 09:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.41%EV -7.15%E -4.21%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.89%EV -1.65%E -0.354%K -0.451%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -12.76%E -3.55%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-04 09:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.19%EV -7.15%E -4.21%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.46%EV -16.45%E -4.17%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -15.19%E -4.34%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-04 04:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.19%EV -7.15%E -4.21%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.46%EV -16.45%E -4.17%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -15.19%E -4.34%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-04 04:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.20%EV -7.70%E -4.56%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.50%EV -3.76%E -0.827%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.29%EV -6.95%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-04 09:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.68%EV -7.70%E -4.56%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -6.93%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.92%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-04 14:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -8.79%E -5.26%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -6.93%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -7.92%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-04 08:58 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -8.79%E -5.26%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -6.93%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -7.92%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-04 09:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.53%EV -8.79%E -5.26%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -9.05%E -2.10%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -9.13%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-31 06:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.26%EV -8.79%E -5.26%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.58%EV -11.17%E -2.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -9.13%E -2.43%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-02 20:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.46%EV -10.43%E -6.36%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.91%EV -7.99%E -1.84%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -6.71%E -1.74%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-04 14:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 54.51%EV -10.98%E -6.73%K -17.42%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -11.17%E -2.66%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.34%EV -11.55%E -3.16%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-04 09:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -11.52%E -7.11%K -18.58%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -4.82%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -3.07%E -0.768%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-04 11:14 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.16% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.89% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.95% | 1.8% | 2026-09-04 12:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.91% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.25% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.84% | 2.3% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.91% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.25% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.84% | 2.3% | 2026-09-04 12:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.91% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.25% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.84% | 2.3% | 2026-09-04 12:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.32% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.37% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.31% | 2.8% | 2026-09-04 12:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.59% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.12% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29% | 2.9% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |