Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 3.03
assuming max odds 2.43
assuming max odds 3.50
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sporting Gijón (Local): 32.41%; Girona FC (Visit): 39.24%; Draw: 28.35%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -0.769%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%EV -1.80%E -0.593%K -0.885%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.60%EV -4.65%E -1.91%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.64%EV -4.74%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.95%EV -2.77%E -0.923%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.44%EV -4.65%E -1.91%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.61%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -4.39%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.36%EV -5.83%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -4.39%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-04 09:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.92%EV -5.36%E -1.84%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.49%EV -7.40%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 28.59%EV -7.57%E -2.32%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.37%EV -5.36%E -1.84%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.83%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 28.80%EV -9.84%E -3.09%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-04 09:53 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.93%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.79%EV -5.83%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -0.769%E -0.220%K -0.307%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-04 08:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.94%EV -5.04%E -2.08%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.94%EV -5.04%E -2.08%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.94%EV -5.04%E -2.08%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-04 14:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.29%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.34%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-04 10:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -5.83%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -12.11%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-04 10:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.79%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 39.40%EV -8.18%E -3.50%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-04 09:53 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -6.66%E -2.31%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -12.11%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-04 10:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -4.65%E -1.91%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 15:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -4.65%E -1.91%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 15:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -4.65%E -1.91%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 15:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -4.65%E -1.91%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 16:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -4.65%E -1.91%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 15:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -5.83%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 08:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -7.79%E -3.32%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-04 08:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -7.79%E -3.32%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-04 14:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -7.79%E -3.32%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-04 08:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.18%EV -5.83%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-04 09:53 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.18%EV -5.83%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-04 09:54 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -7.86%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-04 13:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -7.86%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-04 13:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -10.87%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-04 08:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -10.87%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.64%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-04 08:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -10.87%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 38.25%EV -7.01%E -2.96%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-04 10:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -10.87%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 38.83%EV -8.58%E -3.68%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-02 22:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -10.87%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 38.83%EV -8.58%E -3.68%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-02 22:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -10.87%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 38.83%EV -8.58%E -3.68%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-02 22:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -10.87%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 38.83%EV -8.58%E -3.68%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-02 22:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -10.87%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.49%EV -11.71%E -5.21%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.21%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -10.87%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -11.71%E -5.21%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -12.11%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-04 09:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 32.08%EV -11.84%E -4.35%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 39.31%EV -12.89%E -5.81%K -10.57%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -13.53%E -4.44%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-09-04 10:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.09%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-03 23:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-04 08:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.28%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -7.86%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-04 09:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-03 23:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-03 23:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-03 23:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-03 23:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -11.71%E -5.21%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -7.86%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-04 08:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.28%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-09-02 22:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.88%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 38.94%EV -10.54%E -4.62%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.18%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-03 16:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 32.88%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 38.94%EV -10.54%E -4.62%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.18%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-03 16:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV -14.11%E -5.33%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.49%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.10%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-09-04 09:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 32.96%EV -15.73%E -6.05%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 38.95%EV -13.68%E -6.22%K -11.40%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.09%EV -13.53%E -4.44%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-09-03 16:00 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.03% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.82% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15% | 3.0% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.15% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.26% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.60% | 4.4% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.15% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.26% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.60% | 4.4% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.15% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.26% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.60% | 4.4% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.04% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.46% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.50% | 4.7% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.80% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.48% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 45.28% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 54.72% | -23.9% | 2026-09-04 09:59 |