Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Sporting Gijón v Girona FC

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-05 14:15 UTC

Score final : Sporting Gijón 0–2 Girona FC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

52 opérateurs (18 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Sporting Gijón (Local)

Prévision 32.41%3.09cote équitable
EV -1.80%
Avantage -0.593%
Kelly -0.885%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.03

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
31.21%32.48%32.36%33.58%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.602.802.803.0338.46%35.72%35.71%33.00%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Girona FC (Visiteur)

Prévision 39.24%2.55cote équitable
EV -4.65%
Avantage -1.91%
Kelly -3.25%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.43

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
38.09%39.21%39.20%40.03%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.202.342.332.4345.45%42.70%42.92%41.15%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 28.35%3.53cote équitable
EV -0.769%
Avantage -0.220%
Kelly -0.307%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.21%28.31%28.44%29.76%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.053.243.233.5032.79%30.83%31.01%28.57%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Sporting Gijón (Local) : 32.41% ; Girona FC (Visiteur) : 39.24% ; Match nul : 28.35%. Pour Match nul, cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 3.53. Aucun opérateur admissible ne proposait de cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil : la meilleure était 3.50, pour une espérance de -0.769% ; elle ne produisait pas d’espérance positive.

1 opérateur propose un nombre d’options différent pour ce marché (2 issues, contre le format 3 issues retenu dans l’analyse). Cette disparité impose d’interpréter les résultats avec prudence.

Cotes des opérateurs (52 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Pinnacle🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 31.76%EV -1.80%E -0.593%K -0.885%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.60%EV -4.65%E -1.91%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.64%EV -4.74%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 14:35
1xBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.95%EV -2.77%E -0.923%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.44%EV -4.65%E -1.91%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.61%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 14:20
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -4.39%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.36%EV -5.83%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-04 14:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -4.39%E -1.49%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 09:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.92%EV -5.36%E -1.84%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.49%EV -7.40%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.59%EV -7.57%E -2.32%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 14:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 31.37%EV -5.36%E -1.84%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.83%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.80%EV -9.84%E -3.09%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 09:53
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.93%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.79%EV -5.83%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.28%EV -0.769%E -0.220%K -0.307%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-04 08:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.94%EV -5.04%E -2.08%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 14:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.94%EV -5.04%E -2.08%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 14:20
BetAnything🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.94%EV -5.04%E -2.08%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 14:19
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.29%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.34%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.37%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 10:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -5.83%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -12.11%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 10:10
Bovada🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.79%EV -6.01%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.40%EV -8.18%E -3.50%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 09:53
William Hill🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -6.66%E -2.31%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.20%EV -12.11%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-04 10:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -4.65%E -1.91%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 15:59
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -4.65%E -1.91%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 15:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -4.65%E -1.91%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 15:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -4.65%E -1.91%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 16:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.07%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -4.65%E -1.91%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 15:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -7.63%E -2.68%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -5.83%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 08:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -7.79%E -3.32%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 08:25
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -7.79%E -3.32%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 14:19
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -7.79%E -3.32%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-04 08:25
Betsson🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.18%EV -5.83%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 09:53
NordicBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.18%EV -5.83%E -2.43%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 09:54
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -7.86%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-04 13:29
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -7.86%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-04 13:29
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -9.25%E -3.30%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-04 14:20
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -10.87%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 08:20
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -10.87%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.64%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-04 08:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -10.87%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.25%EV -7.01%E -2.96%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-04 10:15
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -10.87%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.83%EV -8.58%E -3.68%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-02 22:05
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -10.87%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.83%EV -8.58%E -3.68%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-02 22:04
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -10.87%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.83%EV -8.58%E -3.68%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-02 22:05
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -10.87%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.83%EV -8.58%E -3.68%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-02 22:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.31%EV -10.87%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.49%EV -11.71%E -5.21%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.21%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-04 14:20
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -10.87%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -11.71%E -5.21%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -12.11%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-04 09:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 32.08%EV -11.84%E -4.35%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 39.31%EV -12.89%E -5.81%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%EV -13.53%E -4.44%K -6.60%G +0.000%14.6%2026-09-04 10:40
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.58%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.09%EV -6.61%E -2.78%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-03 23:15
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-04 08:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-04 14:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.28%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.65%EV -7.86%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-04 09:55
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-03 23:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-03 23:15
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-03 23:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-03 23:20
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -11.71%E -5.21%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -7.86%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-04 08:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.28%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-02 22:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.88%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.94%EV -10.54%E -4.62%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.18%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-03 16:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.88%EV -12.49%E -4.63%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.94%EV -10.54%E -4.62%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.18%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-03 16:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV -14.11%E -5.33%K -8.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.49%EV -9.75%E -4.24%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.10%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-04 09:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 32.96%EV -15.73%E -6.05%K -9.83%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.95%EV -13.68%E -6.22%K -11.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.09%EV -13.53%E -4.44%K -6.60%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-03 16:00
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi◎3.03I 33.00%NM 32.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.82%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%3.0%2026-09-04 14:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 32.15%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.26%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.60%4.4%2026-09-04 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 32.15%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.26%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.60%4.4%2026-09-04 13:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 32.15%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.26%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.60%4.4%2026-09-04 14:20
Matchbook◎2.98I 33.56%NM 32.04%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.46%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.50%4.7%2026-09-04 14:35
Smarkets◎2.98I 33.56%NM 31.80%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.48%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%5.5%2026-09-04 14:30

Autres opérateurs — hors analyse (1)

Ces opérateurs proposent un nombre d’options différent pour ce marché et sont exclus de l’analyse. Leurs cotes sont données uniquement à titre indicatif : leurs règles de règlement peuvent différer et créer une incertitude supplémentaire.

OpérateurOption 1Option 2Marge ▲Mise à jour
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 45.28%2.40I 41.67%NM 54.72%-23.9%2026-09-04 09:59