Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Sporting Gijón v CD Eldense

Início: 2026-09-13 12:01 UTC

Final: Sporting Gijón 0–1 CD Eldense

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

53 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Sporting Gijón (Local)

Previsão 58.00%1.72odd justa
EV -1.40%
Vantagem -0.825%
Kelly -2.00%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.70

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
54.61%58.06%58.03%60.37%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.491.601.601.7067.11%62.44%62.50%58.82%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

CD Eldense (Visitante)

Previsão 17.59%5.68odd justa
EV +1.85%
Vantagem +0.319%
Kelly +0.386%
Crescimento +0.007%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.79

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
16.10%17.55%17.51%19.06%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.505.095.005.7922.22%19.64%20.00%17.27%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 24.41%4.10odd justa
EV -2.36%
Vantagem -0.589%
Kelly -0.786%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
23.53%24.39%24.47%26.34%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.303.673.654.0030.30%27.27%27.40%25.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Sporting Gijón (Local): 58.00%; CD Eldense (Visitante): 17.59%; Empate: 24.41%. Para CD Eldense (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.68. 4 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.79, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.85%.

Odds das casas de apostas (53 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.50%EV -6.04%E -3.73%K -9.75%G +0.000%5.79I 17.27%NM 16.37%EV +1.85%E +0.319%K +0.386%G +0.007%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.14%EV -7.97%E -2.11%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-13 11:59
Pinnacle🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.81%EV -4.88%E -2.98%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.77%EV +1.15%E +0.199%K +0.241%G +0.003%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.42%EV -3.58%E -0.906%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-13 11:51
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.22%EV -6.62%E -4.11%K -10.86%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.44%EV +0.266%E +0.047%K +0.057%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -9.68%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 11:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.37%EV -11.84%E -7.79%K -22.77%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.10%EV +0.266%E +0.047%K +0.057%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -4.80%E -1.23%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 11:11
Fanatics🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.11%EV -6.04%E -3.73%K -9.75%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -3.25%E -0.591%K -0.723%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -7.24%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 11:46
DraftKings🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.45%EV -6.62%E -4.11%K -10.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%EV -3.25%E -0.591%K -0.723%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -6.02%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 12:00
SportsBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.93%EV -8.36%E -5.29%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -3.25%E -0.591%K -0.723%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -12.12%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 11:41
Marathon Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.65%EV -7.78%E -4.89%K -13.19%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.43%EV -5.89%E -1.10%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -4.80%E -1.23%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-13 11:59
Bovada🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.44%EV -8.36%E -5.29%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.26%EV -5.89%E -1.10%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -7.24%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 11:58
LowVig.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -6.04%E -3.73%K -9.75%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -6.77%E -1.28%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -6.02%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 11:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -6.04%E -3.73%K -9.75%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -6.77%E -1.28%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -6.02%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 12:00
BetAnything🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -6.04%E -3.73%K -9.75%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -6.77%E -1.28%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.37%EV -6.02%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 12:00
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.97%EV -8.36%E -5.29%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.28%EV -6.77%E -1.28%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -9.68%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 11:05
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.97%EV -8.36%E -5.29%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.28%EV -6.77%E -1.28%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -9.68%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 11:05
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.91%EV -4.30%E -2.61%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.20%EV -7.65%E -1.46%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -2.36%E -0.589%K -0.786%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-13 11:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.01%EV -6.04%E -3.73%K -9.75%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.90%EV -7.65%E -1.46%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -4.80%E -1.23%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 11:59
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.79%EV -6.62%E -4.11%K -10.86%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -7.65%E -1.46%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.49%EV -7.24%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-13 11:30
betano_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.03%EV -8.94%E -5.70%K -15.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.35%EV -7.65%E -1.46%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -9.68%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 11:50
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.03%EV -8.94%E -5.70%K -15.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.35%EV -7.65%E -1.46%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -9.68%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 11:53
Codere (IT)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.93%EV -8.94%E -5.70%K -15.69%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.49%EV -8.53%E -1.64%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -9.68%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-13 11:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.19%EV -8.36%E -5.29%K -14.42%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.72%EV -10.29%E -2.02%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -12.12%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 12:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.17%EV -11.26%E -7.36%K -21.25%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.45%EV -10.29%E -2.02%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.38%EV -10.90%E -2.99%K -4.11%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-13 11:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 58.81%EV -13.58%E -9.12%K -27.72%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.18%EV -10.29%E -2.02%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.01%EV -10.90%E -2.99%K -4.11%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-13 11:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -1.40%E -0.825%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -12.05%E -2.41%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -12.12%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 11:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -1.40%E -0.825%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -12.05%E -2.41%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -12.12%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 11:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -1.40%E -0.825%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -12.05%E -2.41%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -12.12%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 11:05
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.67%EV -2.56%E -1.53%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -12.05%E -2.41%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -10.90%E -2.99%K -4.11%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 12:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.67%EV -2.56%E -1.53%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -12.05%E -2.41%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -10.90%E -2.99%K -4.11%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 12:00
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -6.04%E -3.73%K -9.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -12.05%E -2.41%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -8.46%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-13 11:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -6.04%E -3.73%K -9.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -12.05%E -2.41%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -8.46%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-13 11:59
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 57.95%EV -7.78%E -4.89%K -13.19%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -12.05%E -2.41%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -4.80%E -1.23%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-13 12:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -6.62%E -4.11%K -10.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -12.05%E -2.41%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -12.12%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-13 10:55
William Hill🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -7.20%E -4.50%K -12.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -12.05%E -2.41%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -12.12%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-13 11:55
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -8.94%E -5.70%K -15.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -12.05%E -2.41%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -8.46%E -2.26%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 12:00
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.47%EV -7.20%E -4.50%K -12.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -12.05%E -2.41%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.45%EV -13.34%E -3.76%K -5.23%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-13 11:55
BoyleSports🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.21%EV -10.10%E -6.52%K -18.37%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.05%EV -12.05%E -2.41%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -7.24%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-13 11:20
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -8.94%E -5.70%K -15.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -12.05%E -2.41%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -14.56%E -4.16%K -5.82%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 11:41
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -8.94%E -5.70%K -15.69%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -12.05%E -2.41%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -14.56%E -4.16%K -5.82%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 11:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 57.05%EV -10.10%E -6.52%K -18.37%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -12.05%E -2.41%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.26%EV -14.56%E -4.16%K -5.82%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-13 11:51
NetBet (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 57.53%EV -11.84%E -7.79%K -22.77%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.84%EV -13.81%E -2.82%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.63%EV -13.34%E -3.76%K -5.23%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-13 11:55
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.10%EV -8.94%E -5.70%K -15.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.68%EV -15.57%E -3.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -9.68%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-13 11:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.10%EV -8.94%E -5.70%K -15.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.68%EV -15.57%E -3.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.23%EV -9.68%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-13 11:59
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.72%EV -8.94%E -5.70%K -15.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.55%EV -15.57%E -3.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -12.12%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 11:36
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.72%EV -8.94%E -5.70%K -15.69%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.55%EV -15.57%E -3.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -12.12%E -3.37%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-13 11:36
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.47%EV -9.52%E -6.10%K -17.00%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.35%EV -15.57%E -3.24%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -14.56%E -4.16%K -5.82%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-13 12:00
Grosvenor🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.13%EV -4.88%E -2.98%K -7.63%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.03%EV -16.45%E -3.46%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -14.56%E -4.16%K -5.82%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 12:00
Casumo🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.13%EV -4.88%E -2.98%K -7.63%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.03%EV -16.45%E -3.46%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -14.56%E -4.16%K -5.82%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 12:00
TABtouch🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.78%EV -4.30%E -2.61%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.03%EV -16.45%E -3.46%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -15.78%E -4.57%K -6.44%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 11:05
betPARX🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.78%EV -4.30%E -2.61%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.03%EV -16.45%E -3.46%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -15.78%E -4.57%K -6.44%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 11:01
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.97%EV -5.46%E -3.35%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.06%EV -17.32%E -3.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.97%EV -15.78%E -4.57%K -6.44%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-13 12:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.61%EV -4.88%E -2.98%K -7.63%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.05%EV -17.32%E -3.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -17.00%E -5.00%K -7.08%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-13 11:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.76%EV -5.46%E -3.35%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.99%EV -17.32%E -3.69%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -17.00%E -5.00%K -7.08%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 11:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 55.12%EV -10.10%E -6.52%K -18.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 18.99%EV -20.84%E -4.63%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.89%EV -19.44%E -5.89%K -8.45%G +0.000%17.0%2026-09-13 12:00
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.99%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.08%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.93%0.3%2026-09-13 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.81%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.03%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%0.6%2026-09-13 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.81%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.03%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%0.6%2026-09-13 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.81%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.03%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%0.6%2026-09-13 11:55
Smarkets◎1.68I 59.52%NM 58.76%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.92%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.31%1.3%2026-09-13 11:55
Kalshi◎1.69I 59.17%NM 57.92%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.65%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.43%2.2%2026-09-13 11:25