Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Sporting Gijón v Burgos CF

Inicio: 2026-08-23 17:00 UTC

Final: Sporting Gijón 1–0 Burgos CF

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Sporting Gijón (Local)

Predicción 46.76%2.14momio equitativo
EV -3.68%
Ventaja -1.78%
Kelly -3.47%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.06

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.35%46.70%46.78%49.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.851.971.972.0654.05%50.70%50.76%48.54%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Burgos CF (Visitante)

Predicción 24.03%4.16momio equitativo
EV +0.934%
Ventaja +0.222%
Kelly +0.292%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.62%24.12%24.07%26.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.793.754.2029.41%26.41%26.67%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.21%3.42momio equitativo
EV -3.32%
Ventaja -1.00%
Kelly -1.44%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.31

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.86%29.18%29.14%30.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.803.083.053.3135.71%32.43%32.79%30.21%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Sporting Gijón (Local): 46.76%; Burgos CF (Visitante): 24.03%; Empate: 29.21%. Para Burgos CF (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.16. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.20, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.934%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.50%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.62%EV +0.934%E +0.222%K +0.292%G +0.003%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.88%EV -7.12%E -2.24%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 16:55
Pinnacle🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.62%EV -5.08%E -2.50%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.18%EV +0.213%E +0.051%K +0.067%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.20%EV -3.32%E -1.00%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-23 16:50
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.33%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -1.47%E -0.358%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.58%EV -6.53%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 16:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.09%EV -9.29%E -4.79%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -1.47%E -0.358%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.15%EV -6.53%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 16:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.09%EV -9.29%E -4.79%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -1.47%E -0.358%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.15%EV -6.53%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 16:55
BetAnything🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.09%EV -9.29%E -4.79%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -1.47%E -0.358%K -0.474%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.15%EV -6.53%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 16:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.91%EV -8.82%E -4.52%K -9.28%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.07%EV -2.67%E -0.659%K -0.876%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.02%EV -5.95%E -1.85%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-23 16:54
Coolbet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.23%EV -5.55%E -2.75%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.85%EV -3.87%E -0.968%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.91%EV -3.61%E -1.09%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-23 16:54
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.62%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -3.87%E -0.968%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -9.45%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 16:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -12.56%E -6.72%K -14.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -3.87%E -0.968%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -3.61%E -1.09%K -1.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 16:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.74%EV -3.68%E -1.78%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -5.07%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -9.45%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 16:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.74%EV -3.68%E -1.78%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -5.07%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -9.45%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 16:34
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.92%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -5.07%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -6.53%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 16:49
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.33%EV -8.82%E -4.52%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -5.07%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.30%EV -7.99%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-23 16:48
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -6.28%E -1.61%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -3.61%E -1.09%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-23 16:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.34%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.76%EV -6.28%E -1.61%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -9.45%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 16:55
SportsBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.72%EV -7.88%E -4.00%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%EV -6.28%E -1.61%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -9.45%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-23 16:45
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -8.82%E -4.52%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -8.68%E -2.28%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -3.61%E -1.09%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-23 16:54
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -8.82%E -4.52%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -8.68%E -2.28%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -6.53%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 16:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -8.68%E -2.28%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.19%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 16:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -8.68%E -2.28%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.19%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 16:34
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -8.68%E -2.28%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.19%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 16:35
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -8.82%E -4.52%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -8.68%E -2.28%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-23 16:54
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.74%EV -10.69%E -5.60%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.50%EV -8.68%E -2.28%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-23 16:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.54%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -9.88%E -2.63%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -5.07%E -1.56%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 16:55
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.43%EV -5.55%E -2.75%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -9.88%E -2.63%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -10.91%E -3.58%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-23 16:39
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.43%EV -5.55%E -2.75%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -9.88%E -2.63%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -10.91%E -3.58%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-23 16:39
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -8.82%E -4.52%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -9.88%E -2.63%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.53%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 16:55
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -8.82%E -4.52%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -9.88%E -2.63%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.53%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 16:53
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -8.82%E -4.52%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -9.88%E -2.63%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.53%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 16:54
PlayUp🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.70%EV -7.42%E -3.75%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -9.88%E -2.63%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-23 16:45
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.60%EV -7.88%E -4.00%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -9.88%E -2.63%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.45%EV -13.83%E -4.69%K -7.09%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-23 16:35
TABtouch🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.60%EV -7.88%E -4.00%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -9.88%E -2.63%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.45%EV -13.83%E -4.69%K -7.09%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-23 16:34
Casumo🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.60%EV -7.88%E -4.00%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -9.88%E -2.63%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.45%EV -13.83%E -4.69%K -7.09%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-23 16:35
betPARX🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.60%EV -7.88%E -4.00%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -9.88%E -2.63%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.45%EV -13.83%E -4.69%K -7.09%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-23 16:35
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.60%EV -10.69%E -5.60%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -9.88%E -2.63%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.67%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-23 16:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.60%EV -10.69%E -5.60%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -9.88%E -2.63%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.67%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-23 16:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -8.82%E -4.52%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 24.13%EV -10.36%E -2.78%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.71%EV -11.50%E -3.79%K -5.66%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-23 16:42
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -8.82%E -4.52%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -11.08%E -3.00%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.51%EV -10.91%E -3.58%K -5.32%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-23 16:39
Codere (IT)🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 45.25%EV -6.01%E -2.99%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.92%EV -12.28%E -3.37%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.82%EV -10.91%E -3.58%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-23 16:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.44%EV -9.29%E -4.79%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.15%EV -12.28%E -3.37%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.40%EV -15.29%E -5.27%K -8.05%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-23 16:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.44%EV -9.29%E -4.79%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.15%EV -12.28%E -3.37%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.40%EV -15.29%E -5.27%K -8.05%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-23 16:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.44%EV -9.29%E -4.79%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.15%EV -12.28%E -3.37%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.40%EV -15.29%E -5.27%K -8.05%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-23 16:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 46.95%EV -13.50%E -7.29%K -15.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.80%EV -12.28%E -3.37%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.25%EV -13.25%E -4.46%K -6.73%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-23 16:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.65%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -13.48%E -3.75%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -7.99%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-23 16:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.56%EV -8.35%E -4.26%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.16%EV -14.69%E -4.14%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.28%EV -10.91%E -3.58%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-23 16:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 45.43%EV -12.09%E -6.43%K -13.74%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.06%EV -14.69%E -4.14%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.51%EV -18.22%E -6.51%K -10.12%G +0.000%17.1%2026-08-23 16:35
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -4.14%E -2.02%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -15.89%E -4.54%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.45%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 16:39
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -15.89%E -4.54%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.19%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-23 16:15
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -18.29%E -5.38%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-23 16:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -18.29%E -5.38%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-23 16:39
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -18.29%E -5.38%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-23 16:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -6.48%E -3.24%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -18.29%E -5.38%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -12.37%E -4.12%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-23 16:39
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.99%4.17I 23.98%NM 24.00%3.45I 28.99%NM 29.01%-0.1%2026-08-23 16:50
Matchbook◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.18%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.89%0.3%2026-08-23 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 48.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.07%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.76%0.8%2026-08-23 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 48.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.07%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.76%0.8%2026-08-23 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 48.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.07%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.76%0.8%2026-08-23 16:55
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.70%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.40%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.90%1.8%2026-08-23 16:55