La escuela de los momios

Real Valladolid CF v SD Huesca

Inicio: 2026-02-28 17:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Real Valladolid CF (Local)

Predicción 51.94%1.93momio equitativo
EV -4.95%
Ventaja -2.70%
Kelly -5.96%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.83

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.07%51.94%52.02%53.43%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.601.761.761.8362.50%56.72%56.82%54.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

SD Huesca (Visitante)

Predicción 20.27%4.93momio equitativo
EV +2.35%
Ventaja +0.465%
Kelly +0.579%
Crecimiento +0.014%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.56%20.21%20.19%21.37%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.004.554.605.0525.00%21.97%21.74%19.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.79%3.60momio equitativo
EV -1.61%
Ventaja -0.456%
Kelly -0.636%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.54

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.39%27.86%27.80%29.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.263.253.5434.72%30.63%30.77%28.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.82I 54.95%NM 53.05%EV -5.47%E -3.00%K -6.67%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 19.12%EV +2.35%E +0.465%K +0.579%G +0.014%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.83%EV -3.56%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-28 17:19
FanDuel1.77I 56.50%NM 52.43%EV -8.06%E -4.56%K -10.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV +1.33%E +0.267%K +0.333%G +0.004%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.00%EV -11.06%E -3.46%K -5.03%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-28 16:59
BetOnline.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 51.54%EV -4.95%E -2.70%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.45%EV -1.71%E -0.352%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.02%EV -9.67%E -2.98%K -4.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-27 18:39
LowVig.ag1.83I 54.64%NM 51.54%EV -4.95%E -2.70%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.45%EV -1.71%E -0.352%K -0.443%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.02%EV -9.67%E -2.98%K -4.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Bovada1.72I 58.14%NM 53.43%EV -10.66%E -6.20%K -14.81%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -2.72%E -0.567%K -0.716%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -6.90%E -2.06%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-28 17:24
1xBet1.78I 56.18%NM 53.33%EV -7.55%E -4.24%K -9.67%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 19.86%EV -3.13%E -0.654%K -0.827%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.81%EV -1.61%E -0.456%K -0.636%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-28 17:25
Fanatics1.83I 54.64%NM 51.99%EV -4.95%E -2.70%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -3.73%E -0.786%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -5.51%E -1.62%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Coolbet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.13%EV -5.47%E -3.00%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.97%EV -3.73%E -0.786%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.90%EV -5.51%E -1.62%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 17:00
BetAnything1.75I 57.14%NM 52.67%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.40%EV -3.73%E -0.786%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -8.28%E -2.51%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-28 17:24
SportsBet1.75I 57.14%NM 52.21%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -3.73%E -0.786%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -11.06%E -3.46%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-28 17:04
Paddy Power1.73I 57.80%NM 52.02%EV -10.14%E -5.86%K -13.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.95%EV -3.73%E -0.786%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -13.84%E -4.47%K -6.59%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Unibet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.80%EV -5.47%E -3.00%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.06%EV -4.75%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -6.90%E -2.06%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Unibet (NL)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.80%EV -5.47%E -3.00%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.06%EV -4.75%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -6.90%E -2.06%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Unibet (SE)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.80%EV -5.47%E -3.00%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.06%EV -4.75%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -6.90%E -2.06%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Svenska Spel1.82I 54.95%NM 51.80%EV -5.47%E -3.00%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.06%EV -4.75%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -6.90%E -2.06%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-28 17:04
ATG (SE)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.80%EV -5.47%E -3.00%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.06%EV -4.75%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.14%EV -6.90%E -2.06%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-28 17:04
DraftKings1.80I 55.56%NM 52.29%EV -6.51%E -3.61%K -8.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.03%EV -4.75%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -5.51%E -1.62%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-28 17:00
Betr (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.86%EV -6.51%E -3.61%K -8.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -4.75%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.28%EV -8.28%E -2.51%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-28 17:00
Tipico (DE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.56%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.57%EV -4.75%E -1.01%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.28%E -2.51%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 17:00
Marathon Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 52.37%EV -7.55%E -4.24%K -9.67%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.05%EV -5.76%E -1.24%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.58%EV -6.06%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-28 17:24
Casumo1.78I 56.18%NM 51.69%EV -7.55%E -4.24%K -9.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -6.77%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -9.67%E -2.98%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 17:00
Grosvenor1.78I 56.18%NM 51.69%EV -7.55%E -4.24%K -9.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -6.77%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -9.67%E -2.98%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 17:00
TABtouch1.78I 56.18%NM 51.69%EV -7.55%E -4.24%K -9.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -6.77%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -9.67%E -2.98%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 17:00
betPARX1.78I 56.18%NM 51.69%EV -7.55%E -4.24%K -9.67%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -6.77%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -9.67%E -2.98%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 17:04
William Hill1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -6.77%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -8.28%E -2.51%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-28 17:24
Mr Green (SE)1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.91%EV -6.77%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -8.28%E -2.51%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-28 17:25
theScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -6.51%E -3.61%K -8.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -8.80%E -1.96%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.67%E -2.98%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-28 17:05
LeoVegas (SE)1.77I 56.50%NM 51.60%EV -8.06%E -4.56%K -10.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.30%EV -8.80%E -1.96%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.10%EV -9.67%E -2.98%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-28 17:00
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -8.80%E -1.96%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -8.28%E -2.51%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-28 17:24
LeoVegas1.76I 56.82%NM 51.74%EV -8.58%E -4.88%K -11.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.24%EV -8.80%E -1.96%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -9.67%E -2.98%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-28 17:00
BetMGM1.74I 57.47%NM 52.25%EV -9.62%E -5.53%K -13.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -8.80%E -1.96%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -8.28%E -2.51%K -3.60%G +0.000%10.0%2026-02-28 17:14
Virgin Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 51.80%EV -9.62%E -5.53%K -13.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.03%EV -8.80%E -1.96%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -11.06%E -3.46%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-28 17:00
LiveScore Bet1.74I 57.47%NM 51.80%EV -9.62%E -5.53%K -13.00%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.03%EV -8.80%E -1.96%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%EV -11.06%E -3.46%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-28 17:00
Sky Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 51.48%EV -10.14%E -5.86%K -13.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.79%EV -8.80%E -1.96%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -13.84%E -4.47%K -6.59%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-28 17:19
Betsson1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -6.51%E -3.61%K -8.13%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.74%EV -9.81%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -8.28%E -2.51%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-28 17:00
NordicBet1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -6.51%E -3.61%K -8.13%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.74%EV -9.81%E -2.21%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -8.28%E -2.51%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-28 17:00
Winamax (DE)1.72I 58.14%NM 52.93%EV -10.66%E -6.20%K -14.81%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.69%EV -10.83%E -2.46%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -4.12%E -1.19%K -1.68%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-28 17:00
PMU (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 52.21%EV -16.89%E -10.56%K -28.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 18.99%EV -10.83%E -2.46%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.81%EV -19.40%E -6.69%K -10.21%G +0.000%19.7%2026-02-28 17:00
Betway1.80I 55.56%NM 51.41%EV -6.51%E -3.61%K -8.13%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.37%EV -12.25%E -2.83%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -5.51%E -1.62%K -2.29%G +0.000%8.1%2026-02-28 17:00
BoyleSports1.75I 57.14%NM 51.48%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.80%EV -12.25%E -2.83%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.72%EV -9.67%E -2.98%K -4.30%G +0.000%11.0%2026-02-28 17:20
Coral1.75I 57.14%NM 51.25%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.72%EV -12.25%E -2.83%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -11.06%E -3.46%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-28 17:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 51.25%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.72%EV -12.25%E -2.83%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -11.06%E -3.46%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-28 17:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.75I 57.14%NM 51.25%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.72%EV -12.25%E -2.83%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -11.06%E -3.46%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-28 17:00
Neds1.75I 57.14%NM 51.25%EV -9.10%E -5.20%K -12.14%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.72%EV -12.25%E -2.83%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.03%EV -11.06%E -3.46%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.5%2026-02-28 17:00
Codere (IT)1.78I 56.18%NM 50.98%EV -7.55%E -4.24%K -9.67%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.10%EV -12.85%E -2.99%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -9.67%E -2.98%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.2%2026-02-28 17:00
Betclic (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 51.32%EV -9.62%E -5.53%K -13.00%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.77%EV -12.85%E -2.99%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -11.06%E -3.46%K -5.03%G +0.000%12.0%2026-02-28 17:08
NetBet (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 52.12%EV -13.26%E -7.94%K -19.79%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.24%EV -12.85%E -2.99%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.63%EV -12.45%E -3.95%K -5.79%G +0.000%14.9%2026-02-28 17:19
Unibet (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 51.69%EV -11.70%E -6.88%K -16.71%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.68%EV -13.87%E -3.26%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 27.63%EV -11.62%E -3.65%K -5.33%G +0.000%13.8%2026-02-28 17:24
Winamax (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 52.38%EV -12.74%E -7.58%K -18.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.95%EV -14.88%E -3.54%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -8.28%E -2.51%K -3.60%G +0.000%13.6%2026-02-28 17:00
Parions Sport (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 51.07%EV -11.70%E -6.88%K -16.71%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 20.92%EV -15.89%E -3.83%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.01%EV -13.84%E -4.47%K -6.59%G +0.000%15.2%2026-02-28 17:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 50.07%EV -13.26%E -7.94%K -19.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 20.90%EV -18.93%E -4.73%K -6.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.03%EV -19.96%E -6.93%K -10.62%G +0.000%19.6%2026-02-28 17:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.89I 52.91%NM 52.69%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.44%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87%0.4%2026-02-28 17:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.89I 52.91%NM 52.51%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%0.8%2026-02-28 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.89I 52.91%NM 52.51%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%0.8%2026-02-28 17:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.89I 52.91%NM 52.51%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.77%0.8%2026-02-28 17:25
Smarkets1.83I 54.64%NM 53.34%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.77%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.89%2.4%2026-02-28 17:25