Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Oviedo v Burgos CF

Inicio: 2026-09-06 14:15 UTC

Final: Oviedo 0–0 Burgos CF

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Oviedo (Local)

Predicción 48.65%2.06momio equitativo
EV -3.68%
Ventaja -1.86%
Kelly -3.75%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.98

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.03%48.75%48.61%50.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.781.901.911.9856.18%52.57%52.36%50.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Burgos CF (Visitante)

Predicción 22.05%4.53momio equitativo
EV +3.21%
Ventaja +0.686%
Kelly +0.872%
Crecimiento +0.028%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.68

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.01%21.95%22.03%23.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.754.124.104.6826.67%24.26%24.39%21.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.30%3.41momio equitativo
EV -2.14%
Ventaja -0.640%
Kelly -0.914%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.34

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.41%29.30%29.36%30.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.853.093.103.3435.09%32.38%32.26%29.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Oviedo (Local): 48.65%; Burgos CF (Visitante): 22.05%; Empate: 29.30%. Para Burgos CF (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.53. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.68, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.21%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.72%EV -5.62%E -2.90%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.61%EV +3.21%E +0.686%K +0.872%G +0.028%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.68%EV -4.78%E -1.47%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-06 14:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.30%EV -10.98%E -6.00%K -13.22%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV +1.44%E +0.314%K +0.401%G +0.006%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -9.17%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 13:19
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -7.08%E -3.71%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -0.761%E -0.169%K -0.217%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.53%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 13:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.95%EV -9.03%E -4.83%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.23%EV -2.97%E -0.674%K -0.872%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.83%EV -5.07%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 14:10
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.78%EV -7.08%E -3.71%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.17%EV -2.97%E -0.674%K -0.872%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.17%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 13:45
Bovada🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.30%EV -9.03%E -4.83%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -2.97%E -0.674%K -0.872%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.17%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 14:09
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.07%EV -7.08%E -3.71%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.64%EV -4.51%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.29%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 13:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.76%EV -4.16%E -2.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -5.17%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -9.17%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 13:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.76%EV -4.16%E -2.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -5.17%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -9.17%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 13:59
BetAnything🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.76%EV -4.16%E -2.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%EV -5.17%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -9.17%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 13:59
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.43%EV -7.57%E -3.98%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -5.17%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -10.64%E -3.49%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 13:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -5.14%E -2.63%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -7.38%E -1.76%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.31%E -1.00%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-06 13:50
Coolbet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -5.14%E -2.63%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -7.38%E -1.76%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.31%E -1.00%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-06 13:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -4.16%E -2.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -7.38%E -1.76%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.86%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 13:45
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -4.16%E -2.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -7.38%E -1.76%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.86%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 13:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -4.16%E -2.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -7.38%E -1.76%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.86%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 13:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -4.16%E -2.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -7.38%E -1.76%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.86%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 13:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.75%EV -4.16%E -2.11%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -7.38%E -1.76%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.86%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 13:45
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.22%EV -5.14%E -2.63%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -7.38%E -1.76%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 13:45
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -7.08%E -3.71%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.38%E -1.76%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -12.10%E -4.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 14:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -7.08%E -3.71%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -7.38%E -1.76%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -12.10%E -4.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 14:05
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -9.03%E -4.83%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -7.38%E -1.76%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -12.10%E -4.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-06 13:45
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.36%EV -10.98%E -6.00%K -13.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%EV -7.38%E -1.76%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -9.17%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-06 14:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.11%EV -10.00%E -5.41%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.19%EV -7.38%E -1.76%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.69%EV -15.03%E -5.18%K -7.91%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-06 14:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.63%EV -10.00%E -5.41%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.68%EV -8.48%E -2.04%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.69%EV -11.22%E -3.70%K -5.53%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-06 13:45
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.16%EV -7.57%E -3.98%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.32%EV -9.58%E -2.34%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -9.17%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 13:20
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.16%EV -7.57%E -3.98%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.32%EV -9.58%E -2.34%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -9.17%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 13:20
PlayUp🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.69%EV -7.57%E -3.98%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.10%EV -9.58%E -2.34%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%EV -12.10%E -4.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 13:59
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.04%EV -3.68%E -1.86%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.49%EV -10.68%E -2.64%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.48%EV -2.14%E -0.640%K -0.914%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 14:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -7.08%E -3.71%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -11.79%E -2.95%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 13:50
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -7.57%E -3.98%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -11.79%E -2.95%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-06 13:50
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -7.08%E -3.71%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -11.79%E -2.95%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.17%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 13:20
betano_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -7.08%E -3.71%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -11.79%E -2.95%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.17%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 14:10
Bet Victor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.76%EV -7.08%E -3.71%K -7.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -11.79%E -2.95%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.17%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 14:08
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.74%EV -9.03%E -4.83%K -10.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -11.79%E -2.95%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 13:50
TABtouch🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.17%EV -6.60%E -3.44%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -11.79%E -2.95%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.19%EV -12.10%E -4.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 13:45
Grosvenor🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.17%EV -6.60%E -3.44%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -11.79%E -2.95%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.19%EV -12.10%E -4.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 13:45
Casumo🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.17%EV -6.60%E -3.44%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -11.79%E -2.95%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.19%EV -12.10%E -4.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 13:45
betPARX🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.17%EV -6.60%E -3.44%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -11.79%E -2.95%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.19%EV -12.10%E -4.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 13:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.16%EV -8.54%E -4.54%K -9.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -11.79%E -2.95%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.17%E -2.96%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 13:20
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.61%EV -10.00%E -5.41%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.02%EV -11.79%E -2.95%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.37%EV -15.03%E -5.18%K -7.91%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-06 13:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.29%EV -13.41%E -7.53%K -17.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.94%EV -11.79%E -2.95%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.77%EV -10.64%E -3.49%K -5.19%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-06 13:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.46%EV -8.54%E -4.54%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.07%EV -12.89%E -3.26%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.47%EV -6.24%E -1.95%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 13:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 48.92%EV -13.41%E -7.53%K -17.19%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.05%EV -12.89%E -3.26%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.03%EV -12.10%E -4.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%14.8%2026-09-06 14:10
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -7.08%E -3.71%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -13.99%E -3.59%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -12.10%E -4.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-06 13:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -7.08%E -3.71%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -13.99%E -3.59%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -12.10%E -4.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-06 13:25
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -7.08%E -3.71%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -13.99%E -3.59%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -12.10%E -4.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-06 13:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -7.08%E -3.71%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -13.99%E -3.59%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -12.10%E -4.03%K -6.05%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-06 13:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.64%EV -10.49%E -5.70%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.95%EV -13.99%E -3.59%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.41%EV -7.71%E -2.45%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 13:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.18%EV -8.54%E -4.54%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.75%EV -13.99%E -3.59%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.07%EV -13.57%E -4.60%K -6.96%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-06 13:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.32%EV -9.03%E -4.83%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.69%EV -13.99%E -3.59%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.99%EV -13.57%E -4.60%K -6.96%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-06 13:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.32%EV -9.03%E -4.83%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.69%EV -13.99%E -3.59%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.99%EV -13.57%E -4.60%K -6.96%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-06 13:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 47.22%EV -11.95%E -6.60%K -14.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.79%EV -17.30%E -4.61%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.99%EV -16.50%E -5.79%K -8.92%G +0.000%17.0%2026-09-06 13:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.99%4.76I 21.01%NM 21.00%3.33I 30.03%NM 30.01%0.1%2026-09-06 13:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.94%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.80%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.26%0.2%2026-09-06 14:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.94%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.80%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.26%0.2%2026-09-06 14:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.19%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.70%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.11%0.6%2026-09-06 13:40
Matchbook◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.19%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.70%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.11%0.6%2026-09-06 13:35
Smarkets◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.44%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.60%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.96%1.1%2026-09-06 13:50