Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Girona FC v Leganés

2026-08-16 17:00 UTC — La Liga 2 - Spain

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Girona FC (Local)

Prediction 58.18%1.72fair odd
EV -4.00%
Edge -2.42%
Kelly -6.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.43%57.97%58.18%58.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.591.601.6565.36%62.71%62.50%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leganés (Visit)

Prediction 16.96%5.89fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -0.734%
Kelly -0.892%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.57%17.01%17.02%18.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.335.505.6521.05%18.76%18.18%17.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.85%4.02fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -0.919%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.69%25.02%24.80%26.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.633.703.8829.41%27.52%27.03%25.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Girona FC (Local): 58.18%; Leganés (Visit): 16.96%; Draw: 24.85%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.02. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.88, with an expected value of -3.57%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.00%E -2.42%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 17.01%EV -4.15%E -0.734%K -0.892%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.76%EV -3.57%E -0.919%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-03 19:25
Betr (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -4.00%E -2.42%K -6.16%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.24%EV -6.69%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -6.80%E -1.81%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-03 14:24
Pinnacle1.64I 60.98%NM 57.86%EV -4.58%E -2.79%K -7.16%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.10%EV -5.85%E -1.05%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.04%EV -5.80%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-03 19:24
Fanatics1.62I 61.73%NM 58.11%EV -5.75%E -3.55%K -9.27%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -6.69%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -5.55%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-03 17:14
William Hill1.62I 61.73%NM 56.46%EV -5.75%E -3.55%K -9.27%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.63%EV -6.69%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -15.50%E -4.56%K -6.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-03 15:45
Mr Green (SE)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.62%EV -6.33%E -3.93%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.57%EV -6.69%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -15.50%E -4.56%K -6.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-03 16:39
Codere (IT)1.61I 62.11%NM 56.51%EV -6.33%E -3.93%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.50%EV -11.78%E -2.27%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.99%EV -13.01%E -3.72%K -5.20%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-03 15:49
Marathon Bet1.60I 62.50%NM 58.34%EV -6.91%E -4.32%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.97%EV -6.69%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.69%EV -6.05%E -1.60%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-03 19:24
SportsBet1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -8.66%E -5.51%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -6.69%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -8.04%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-03 14:14
FanDuel1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -8.66%E -5.51%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -6.69%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -8.04%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-03 14:18
Tipico (DE)1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -8.66%E -5.51%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -6.69%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -8.04%E -2.17%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-03 15:45
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -8.66%E -5.51%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -15.18%E -3.04%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -10.53%E -2.92%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-03 14:19
Winamax (DE)1.56I 64.10%NM 56.47%EV -9.24%E -5.92%K -16.50%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.35%EV -18.57%E -3.87%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -13.01%E -3.72%K -5.20%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-03 15:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 57.45%EV -9.82%E -6.33%K -17.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -15.18%E -3.04%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -10.53%E -2.92%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-03 14:20
Sky Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 56.43%EV -10.98%E -7.18%K -20.72%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.18%EV -19.42%E -4.09%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.39%EV -15.50%E -4.56%K -6.46%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-03 16:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.