Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Córdoba v Almería

Inicio: 2026-09-12 19:01 UTC

Final: Córdoba 0–2 Almería

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Córdoba (Local)

Predicción 37.27%2.68momio equitativo
EV +0.247%
Ventaja +0.092%
Kelly +0.146%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.69

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.35%37.26%37.27%38.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.442.452.6945.45%41.03%40.82%37.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Almería (Visitante)

Predicción 35.87%2.79momio equitativo
EV -3.15%
Ventaja -1.17%
Kelly -1.85%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.85%35.99%35.88%37.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.562.552.7041.67%39.12%39.22%37.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.86%3.72momio equitativo
EV -3.30%
Ventaja -0.916%
Kelly -1.27%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.13%26.75%26.85%27.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.413.403.6031.25%29.32%29.41%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Córdoba (Local): 37.27%; Almería (Visitante): 35.87%; Empate: 26.86%. Para Córdoba (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.68. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.69, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.247%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.35%EV +0.247%E +0.092%K +0.146%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.85%EV -7.45%E -2.89%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.80%EV -8.13%E -2.38%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 18:50
Pinnacle🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.96%EV -2.36%E -0.901%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 36.00%EV -3.51%E -1.30%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.05%EV -3.83%E -1.07%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-12 18:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -3.11%E -1.19%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -12.12%E -4.95%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 19:00
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.97%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.47%EV -6.73%E -2.59%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -3.30%E -0.916%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 18:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -4.97%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%EV -8.53%E -3.34%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -3.30%E -0.916%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 18:15
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -4.97%E -1.95%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -6.73%E -2.59%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 18:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.01%EV -5.34%E -2.10%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.34%EV -4.58%E -1.72%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 18:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.01%EV -5.34%E -2.10%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.34%EV -4.58%E -1.72%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 18:40
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -4.94%E -1.86%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-12 18:01
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.73%E -2.59%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 18:35
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.73%E -2.59%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 19:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.30%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.59%EV -6.02%E -2.30%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.11%EV -7.59%E -2.21%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 18:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -10.32%E -4.13%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.30%E -0.916%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 18:15
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.84%EV -10.32%E -4.13%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-12 18:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -6.73%E -2.59%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-12 18:11
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.52%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%EV -8.53%E -3.34%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-12 18:10
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -6.83%E -2.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.32%E -4.13%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 18:15
Bovada🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.07%EV -7.21%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.78%EV -7.45%E -2.89%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-12 18:55
BetAnything🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.07%EV -7.21%E -2.89%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.78%EV -7.45%E -2.89%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-12 19:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 37.05%EV -8.32%E -3.38%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.74%EV -8.53%E -3.34%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -10.01%E -2.99%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 18:05
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -10.32%E -4.13%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 18:54
betano_uk🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -10.32%E -4.13%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-12 18:54
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -8.53%E -3.34%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -10.01%E -2.99%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-12 18:05
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -8.53%E -3.34%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -10.01%E -2.99%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-12 18:01
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.99%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -8.53%E -3.34%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -10.32%E -4.13%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 19:00
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -10.32%E -4.13%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.57%EV -12.70%E -3.91%K -5.64%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-12 18:11
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -8.70%E -3.55%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -10.32%E -4.13%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -14.04%E -4.39%K -6.38%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-12 18:11
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.83%EV -9.44%E -3.89%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.95%EV -3.15%E -1.17%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.30%E -0.916%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 14:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.58%EV -9.44%E -3.89%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.38%EV -4.94%E -1.86%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -3.30%E -0.916%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-12 18:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.58%EV -9.44%E -3.89%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.38%EV -4.94%E -1.86%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -3.30%E -0.916%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-12 18:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.58%EV -9.44%E -3.89%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.38%EV -4.94%E -1.86%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -3.30%E -0.916%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-12 18:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.58%EV -9.44%E -3.89%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.38%EV -4.94%E -1.86%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -3.30%E -0.916%K -1.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-12 18:05
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -6.73%E -2.59%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 19:00
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -8.53%E -3.34%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.90%EV -10.56%E -4.40%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -10.32%E -4.13%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -14.04%E -4.39%K -6.38%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-12 19:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.51%EV -11.31%E -4.75%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 35.43%EV -9.60%E -3.81%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-12 18:36
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -11.31%E -4.75%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -10.32%E -4.13%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-12 17:55
Neds🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.41%EV -11.31%E -4.75%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -10.32%E -4.13%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-12 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.51%EV -11.68%E -4.93%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.56%EV -10.32%E -4.13%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.94%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 18:01
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.51%EV -11.68%E -4.93%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.56%EV -10.32%E -4.13%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.94%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 18:01
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -12.42%E -5.29%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.96%EV -6.73%E -2.59%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.35%EV -7.33%E -2.12%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.01%EV -12.42%E -5.29%K -9.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.24%EV -13.91%E -5.80%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.76%EV -12.70%E -3.91%K -5.64%G +0.000%15.0%2026-09-12 19:00
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.89%EV -13.17%E -5.65%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.85%EV -6.73%E -2.59%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.26%EV -7.33%E -2.12%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-12 18:05
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.89%EV -13.17%E -5.65%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.85%EV -6.73%E -2.59%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.26%EV -7.33%E -2.12%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-12 18:05
betPARX🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.89%EV -13.17%E -5.65%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.85%EV -6.73%E -2.59%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.26%EV -7.33%E -2.12%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-12 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.58%EV -13.54%E -5.84%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.10%EV -8.53%E -3.34%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.58%EV -13.54%E -5.84%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.10%EV -8.53%E -3.34%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 18:05
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.53%EV -13.54%E -5.84%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 35.25%EV -11.40%E -4.61%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.21%EV -14.04%E -4.39%K -6.38%G +0.000%14.8%2026-09-12 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.78%EV -14.29%E -6.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.98%EV -8.53%E -3.34%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -8.67%E -2.55%K -3.61%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-12 14:20
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.23%EV -14.29%E -6.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.64%EV -13.91%E -5.80%K -9.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.13%EV -5.98%E -1.71%K -2.39%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-12 19:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -14.29%E -6.21%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -10.32%E -4.13%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -11.36%E -3.44%K -4.94%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-12 18:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.73%EV -18.01%E -8.19%K -15.01%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 35.06%EV -12.83%E -5.28%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.21%EV -12.70%E -3.91%K -5.64%G +0.000%17.4%2026-09-12 18:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.26%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.52%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.7%2026-09-12 19:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.29%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.29%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.42%1.3%2026-09-12 19:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.46%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.19%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.35%1.6%2026-09-12 19:00
Matchbook◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.46%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.19%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.35%1.6%2026-09-12 18:55
Smarkets◎2.64I 37.88%NM 36.79%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.24%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%3.0%2026-09-12 19:00
Kalshi◎2.56I 39.06%NM 37.88%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.91%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.21%3.1%2026-09-12 19:00