The School of Odds
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Celta Vigo v Andorra CF

Kickoff: 2026-08-24 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Celta Vigo (Local)

Prediction 30.85%3.24fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.395%
Kelly -0.575%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.68%30.85%30.85%32.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.932.893.2037.04%34.15%34.60%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Andorra CF (Visit)

Prediction 40.82%2.45fair odd
EV +0.004%
Edge +0.002%
Kelly +0.003%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.52%40.67%40.80%41.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.282.292.4546.51%43.89%43.67%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.33%3.53fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.49%28.47%28.35%29.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.213.233.4033.33%31.15%31.01%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Celta Vigo (Local): 30.85%; Andorra CF (Visit): 40.82%; Draw: 28.33%. For Andorra CF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.4499. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.4500, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.004%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -13.61%E -4.86%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV +0.004%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-17 19:50
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -15.15%E -5.51%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -2.04%E -0.849%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-17 19:49
NordicBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -13.61%E -4.86%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -4.08%E -1.74%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -10.77%E -3.42%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-17 17:30
Betsson🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -13.61%E -4.86%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -4.08%E -1.74%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -10.77%E -3.42%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-17 17:29
Pinnacle🎯3.19I 31.35%NM 29.87%EV -1.57%E -0.493%K -0.719%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.25%EV -5.71%E -2.47%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -6.52%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-17 20:00
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -7.44%E -2.48%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.12%E -2.66%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -3.69%E -1.08%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-17 18:10
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.44%E -2.48%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -6.12%E -2.66%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -7.94%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-17 20:44
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -11.14%E -3.87%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.07%EV -6.12%E -2.66%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -6.52%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-17 17:34
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -13.61%E -4.86%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -6.12%E -2.66%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -7.94%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-18 00:13
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -13.61%E -4.86%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -6.12%E -2.66%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -7.94%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-18 00:15
Marathon Bet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 30.87%EV -6.82%E -2.26%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.89%EV -6.94%E -3.04%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -6.52%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-18 06:05
Bovada🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -5.89%E -1.93%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.97%EV -8.16%E -3.63%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-18 06:04
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.52%E -3.63%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -8.16%E -3.63%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -6.52%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-17 17:34
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.52%E -3.63%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -8.16%E -3.63%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -6.52%E -1.98%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-17 17:33
BetOnline.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -2.81%E -0.891%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.28%EV -8.57%E -3.82%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -10.77%E -3.42%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-17 21:00
LowVig.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -2.81%E -0.891%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.28%EV -8.57%E -3.82%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -10.77%E -3.42%K -5.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-17 21:00
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -1.27%E -0.395%K -0.575%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -10.20%E -4.64%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -12.18%E -3.93%K -5.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-18 05:14
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -13.61%E -4.86%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -10.20%E -4.64%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -7.94%E -2.44%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-17 17:34
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -11.14%E -3.87%K -5.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -12.24%E -5.69%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -9.35%E -2.92%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-17 17:35
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.69%EV -16.69%E -6.18%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.79%EV -12.24%E -5.69%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.52%EV -15.02%E -5.01%K -7.51%G +0.000%16.9%2026-08-17 17:43
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.