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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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CD Castellón v Sporting Gijón

2026-10-25 17:30 UTC — La Liga 2 - Spain

Resultado del partido

36 corredores (10 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

CD Castellón (Local)

Predicción 63.21%1.58momio equitativo
EV -4.55%
Ventaja -3.02%
Kelly -8.93%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.51

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
60.58%63.12%63.35%64.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.351.441.441.5174.07%69.24%69.44%66.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sporting Gijón (Visitante)

Predicción 15.52%6.44momio equitativo
EV +0.867%
Ventaja +0.133%
Kelly +0.158%
Crecimiento +0.001%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.44%15.61%15.37%17.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.805.826.006.5020.83%17.17%16.67%15.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.27%4.70momio equitativo
EV -2.36%
Ventaja -0.514%
Kelly -0.657%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.59

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.70%21.28%21.28%22.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.854.254.204.5925.97%23.53%23.81%21.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: CD Castellón (Local): 63.21%; Sporting Gijón (Visitante): 15.52%; Empate: 21.27%. Para Sporting Gijón (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 6.44. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 6.50, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.867%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (36 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.71%EV -8.35%E -5.76%K -18.55%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV +0.867%E +0.133%K +0.158%G +0.001%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -4.27%E -0.950%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-18 18:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.57%EV -8.35%E -5.76%K -18.55%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.75%EV -3.01%E -0.482%K -0.574%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -9.59%E -2.26%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-18 18:19
SportsBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.36%EV -9.61%E -6.72%K -22.35%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.73%EV -3.01%E -0.482%K -0.574%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -6.40%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-18 18:20
1xBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.66%EV -4.55%E -3.02%K -8.93%G +0.000%6.24I 16.03%NM 15.40%EV -3.17%E -0.508%K -0.605%G +0.000%4.59I 21.79%NM 20.94%EV -2.36%E -0.514%K -0.657%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-18 19:05
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.50%EV -5.82%E -3.90%K -11.87%G +0.000%6.13I 16.31%NM 15.43%EV -4.88%E -0.795%K -0.950%G +0.000%4.49I 22.27%NM 21.07%EV -4.49%E -0.999%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-18 19:20
Unibet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.33%EV -6.45%E -4.36%K -13.44%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.37%EV -5.34%E -0.876%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -6.40%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-18 18:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.33%EV -6.45%E -4.36%K -13.44%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.37%EV -5.34%E -0.876%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -6.40%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-18 18:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.33%EV -6.45%E -4.36%K -13.44%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.37%EV -5.34%E -0.876%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -6.40%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-18 18:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.33%EV -6.45%E -4.36%K -13.44%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.37%EV -5.34%E -0.876%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -6.40%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-18 18:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.33%EV -6.45%E -4.36%K -13.44%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.37%EV -5.34%E -0.876%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -6.40%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-18 18:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.72%EV -7.71%E -5.28%K -16.77%G +0.000%6.05I 16.53%NM 15.38%EV -6.12%E -1.01%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.91%EV -5.34%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 18:44
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.47%EV -6.45%E -4.36%K -13.44%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -6.89%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -4.27%E -0.950%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-18 18:23
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -5.19%E -3.46%K -10.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -6.89%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -10.65%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-18 19:14
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.02%EV -8.35%E -5.76%K -18.55%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.23%EV -6.89%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -10.65%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-18 18:23
betano_uk🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.02%EV -8.35%E -5.76%K -18.55%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.23%EV -6.89%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -10.65%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-18 18:24
FanDuel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.13%EV -10.24%E -7.21%K -24.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -6.89%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -6.40%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-18 18:24
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -8.98%E -6.24%K -20.41%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -6.89%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -10.65%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-18 18:25
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -11.51%E -8.22%K -28.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -6.89%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -7.89%E -1.82%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-18 18:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.83%EV -11.51%E -8.22%K -28.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -6.89%E -1.15%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -10.65%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-18 20:00
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.01%EV -9.61%E -6.72%K -22.35%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.54%EV -10.00%E -1.72%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.45%EV -10.65%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-18 18:39
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.01%EV -9.61%E -6.72%K -22.35%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.54%EV -10.00%E -1.72%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.45%EV -10.65%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-18 18:40
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.01%EV -9.61%E -6.72%K -22.35%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.54%EV -10.00%E -1.72%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.45%EV -10.65%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-18 18:40
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.01%EV -9.61%E -6.72%K -22.35%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.54%EV -10.00%E -1.72%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.45%EV -10.65%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-18 18:40
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.18%EV -8.98%E -6.24%K -20.41%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.44%EV -10.00%E -1.72%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -14.91%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-18 19:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.93%EV -9.61%E -6.72%K -22.35%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.65%EV -10.77%E -1.87%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42%EV -10.65%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-18 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.93%EV -9.61%E -6.72%K -22.35%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.65%EV -10.77%E -1.87%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42%EV -10.65%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-18 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.09%EV -10.24%E -7.21%K -24.39%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.58%EV -10.77%E -1.87%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -10.65%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-18 18:40
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.83%EV -6.45%E -4.36%K -13.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -14.65%E -2.66%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.53%EV -9.59%E -2.26%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-18 18:44
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.83%EV -6.45%E -4.36%K -13.44%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -14.65%E -2.66%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.53%EV -9.59%E -2.26%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-18 18:49
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -8.98%E -6.24%K -20.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -14.65%E -2.66%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -10.65%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-18 18:24
PMU (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 63.00%EV -14.04%E -10.32%K -38.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.58%EV -14.65%E -2.66%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.42%EV -14.91%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-18 18:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.81%EV -8.35%E -5.76%K -18.55%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.60%EV -16.20%E -3.00%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.60%EV -11.72%E -2.82%K -3.72%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-18 18:49
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.51%EV -11.51%E -8.22%K -28.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.40%EV -18.53%E -3.53%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.08%EV -17.04%E -4.37%K -5.87%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-18 18:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.00%EV -8.98%E -6.24%K -20.41%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -22.41%E -4.48%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.43%EV -12.78%E -3.12%K -4.12%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-18 19:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 61.70%EV -14.67%E -10.86%K -41.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 16.66%EV -22.41%E -4.48%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 21.64%EV -18.10%E -4.70%K -6.35%G +0.000%20.0%2026-10-18 18:44
Winamax (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 60.58%EV -10.24%E -7.21%K -24.39%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.92%EV -25.51%E -5.32%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.50%EV -14.91%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-18 19:29
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (1)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎1.42I 70.42%NM 60.50%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.18%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.32%16.4%2026-10-18 18:45