Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cádiz CF v Zaragoza

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 19:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cádiz CF (Local)

Prediction 42.45%2.36fair odd
EV -4.49%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -3.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.18%42.48%42.38%44.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.142.152.2551.28%46.65%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zaragoza (Visit)

Prediction 28.35%3.53fair odd
EV +0.934%
Edge +0.262%
Kelly +0.365%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.77%28.38%28.40%30.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.253.273.5634.72%30.73%30.53%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.20%3.43fair odd
EV -0.731%
Edge -0.215%
Kelly -0.305%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.97%29.14%29.22%30.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.123.133.4036.36%32.03%31.90%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cádiz CF (Local): 42.45%; Zaragoza (Visit): 28.35%; Draw: 29.20%. For Zaragoza (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.53. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.56, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.934%.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.36%EV -5.33%E -2.39%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.16%EV +0.934%E +0.262%K +0.365%G +0.003%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.48%EV -4.24%E -1.29%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-06 19:25
1xBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.81%EV -10.00%E -4.72%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.91%EV +0.084%E +0.024%K +0.033%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.27%EV -1.90%E -0.565%K -0.805%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-06 19:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.58%EV -8.73%E -4.06%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -0.767%E -0.219%K -0.307%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.65%EV -7.74%E -2.45%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-06 06:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.58%EV -8.73%E -4.06%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -0.767%E -0.219%K -0.307%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.65%EV -7.74%E -2.45%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-06 06:20
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -6.61%E -3.00%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-06 19:20
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.37%EV -7.88%E -3.63%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 19:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.37%EV -7.88%E -3.63%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 19:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.37%EV -7.88%E -3.63%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 19:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.37%EV -7.88%E -3.63%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 19:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.37%EV -7.88%E -3.63%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -5.11%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-06 19:25
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.61%E -3.00%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-06 19:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.97%EV -7.88%E -3.63%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -8.03%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-06 19:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.73%E -4.06%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-06 19:05
Bovada🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.02%EV -9.15%E -4.28%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.50%EV -8.91%E -2.85%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-06 19:13
BetAnything🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.02%EV -9.15%E -4.28%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.50%EV -8.91%E -2.85%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-06 19:15
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.37%EV -10.00%E -4.72%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -8.03%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 19:25
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.37%EV -10.00%E -4.72%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -8.03%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 19:25
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.37%EV -10.00%E -4.72%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -8.03%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 19:25
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.37%EV -10.00%E -4.72%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.19%EV -8.03%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 19:26
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -6.61%E -3.00%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -0.731%E -0.215%K -0.305%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-06 19:24
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -4.49%E -1.99%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-06 19:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.73%E -4.06%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-06 19:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.42%EV -10.85%E -5.17%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.95%EV -8.03%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-06 19:25
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.42%EV -10.85%E -5.17%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.95%EV -8.03%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-06 19:26
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.73%E -4.06%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-06 19:10
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.85%E -5.17%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -6.44%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-06 19:11
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -6.61%E -3.00%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -7.86%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 19:26
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -6.61%E -3.00%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.36%EV -7.86%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-06 19:05
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -8.73%E -4.06%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.86%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-06 19:20
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -8.73%E -4.06%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -7.86%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-06 19:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.39%EV -12.13%E -5.86%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -7.86%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-06 19:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.39%EV -12.13%E -5.86%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -7.86%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-06 19:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -6.61%E -3.00%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-06 19:25
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -8.73%E -4.06%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -3.65%E -1.11%K -1.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-06 19:25
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -8.73%E -4.06%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-06 19:25
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -10.85%E -5.17%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-06 19:15
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.01%EV -10.85%E -5.17%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.42%EV -15.33%E -5.29%K -8.07%G +0.000%13.4%2026-03-06 19:05
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -4.49%E -1.99%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -8.03%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-06 19:05
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -4.49%E -1.99%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -8.03%E -2.55%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-06 19:05
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -6.61%E -3.00%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -12.11%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-06 19:05
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -8.73%E -4.06%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.11%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-06 19:05
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -8.73%E -4.06%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.11%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-06 19:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -8.73%E -4.06%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.11%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-06 19:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -8.73%E -4.06%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -12.11%E -3.91%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-06 19:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.51%EV -6.61%E -3.00%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.94%EV -13.53%E -4.43%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -6.57%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-06 19:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 41.80%EV -9.58%E -4.50%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.19%EV -13.53%E -4.43%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.00%EV -10.37%E -3.38%K -5.01%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-06 19:19
NetBet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.33%EV -12.98%E -6.33%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.45%EV -13.53%E -4.43%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.22%EV -13.29%E -4.47%K -6.74%G +0.000%15.2%2026-03-06 19:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 42.81%EV -17.22%E -8.83%K -18.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.37%EV -13.53%E -4.43%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.82%EV -18.25%E -6.52%K -10.14%G +0.000%19.8%2026-03-06 19:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.18%EV -11.70%E -5.63%K -10.83%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 29.05%EV -14.38%E -4.76%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.77%EV -10.95%E -3.59%K -5.34%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-06 19:25
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -10.85%E -5.17%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -14.94%E -4.98%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -12.41%E -4.14%K -6.21%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-06 19:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.64%EV -10.85%E -5.17%K -9.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.15%EV -17.78%E -6.13%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.21%EV -9.49%E -3.06%K -4.52%G +0.000%14.4%2026-03-06 19:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 41.29%EV -15.10%E -7.55%K -15.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 28.68%EV -18.35%E -6.37%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.03%EV -19.71%E -7.17%K -11.26%G +0.000%21.1%2026-03-06 19:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.40%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11%1.0%2026-03-06 19:25
Matchbook2.28I 43.86%NM 43.40%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.11%1.0%2026-03-06 19:26
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.00%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.47%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%1.1%2026-03-06 19:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.00%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.47%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%1.1%2026-03-06 19:16
Smarkets2.28I 43.86%NM 43.05%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.65%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.30%1.9%2026-03-06 19:25