The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Cádiz CF v Celta Vigo

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cádiz CF (Local)

Prediction 43.80%2.28fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.04%43.93%43.79%45.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.062.102.2153.19%48.46%47.62%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Celta Vigo (Visit)

Prediction 28.17%3.55fair odd
EV +0.003%
Edge +0.001%
Kelly +0.001%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.65%28.15%28.11%28.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.293.303.5532.26%30.41%30.30%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.03%3.57fair odd
EV -1.91%
Edge -0.546%
Kelly -0.765%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.27%27.93%28.11%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.273.253.5032.26%30.54%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cádiz CF (Local): 43.80%; Celta Vigo (Visit): 28.17%; Draw: 28.03%. For Celta Vigo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.5499. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.5500, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.003%.

Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%EV -9.76%E -4.74%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV +0.003%E +0.001%K +0.001%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.42%EV -3.31%E -0.960%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 16:39
Svenska Spel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%EV -9.76%E -4.74%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV +0.003%E +0.001%K +0.001%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.42%EV -3.31%E -0.960%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 16:40
Pinnacle🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.57%EV -3.19%E -1.44%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.59%EV -1.69%E -0.483%K -0.678%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.83%EV -6.40%E -1.91%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 16:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.48%EV -5.38%E -2.49%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -4.22%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 16:44
LowVig.ag🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.48%EV -5.38%E -2.49%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -4.22%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 16:45
BetAnything🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.48%EV -5.38%E -2.49%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -4.22%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 16:44
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.76%EV -12.39%E -6.20%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.22%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.32%EV -6.12%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 16:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.76%EV -12.39%E -6.20%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.22%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.32%EV -6.12%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 16:40
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.61%EV -5.82%E -2.71%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -5.63%E -1.68%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 16:45
Casumo🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.77%EV -13.70%E -6.96%K -14.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -5.63%E -1.68%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 16:25
betPARX🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.77%EV -13.70%E -6.96%K -14.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -5.63%E -1.68%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 16:25
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.77%EV -13.70%E -6.96%K -14.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -5.63%E -1.68%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 16:25
TABtouch🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.77%EV -13.70%E -6.96%K -14.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -5.63%E -1.68%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 16:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.18%EV -7.57%E -3.59%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.91%EV -5.91%E -1.77%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.91%EV -6.40%E -1.91%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 16:44
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -5.82%E -2.71%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -1.91%E -0.546%K -0.765%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 16:40
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -5.82%E -2.71%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.71%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 16:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -1.91%E -0.546%K -0.765%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 16:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -5.82%E -2.71%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 16:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 16:50
Bovada🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.27%EV -6.70%E -3.14%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 16:44
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 16:49
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 16:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.77%EV -15.02%E -7.74%K -15.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.32%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-15 16:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.77%EV -15.02%E -7.74%K -15.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.32%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-15 16:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.77%EV -15.02%E -7.74%K -15.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.32%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-15 16:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -8.45%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -4.71%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 16:39
Betsson🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -8.45%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 16:55
NordicBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -8.45%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 16:49
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -8.45%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 16:54
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.86%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 16:54
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.86%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 16:55
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -10.20%E -4.98%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.86%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -4.71%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 16:39
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -9.86%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 16:29
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.86%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -11.72%E -3.72%K -5.45%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 16:49
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -14.58%E -7.48%K -15.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.86%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -4.71%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 16:54
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.20%E -4.98%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -9.86%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 16:49
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.20%E -4.98%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -9.86%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 16:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.05%EV -12.39%E -6.20%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.53%EV -9.86%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.42%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-15 16:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 45.58%EV -17.65%E -9.39%K -20.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.78%EV -9.86%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-15 16:39
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.20%E -4.98%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -12.67%E -4.09%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 16:29
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.20%E -4.98%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -12.67%E -4.09%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 16:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.20%E -4.98%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -12.67%E -4.09%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 16:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.20%E -4.98%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -12.67%E -4.09%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 16:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.99%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-08-15 16:55
Matchbook◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.99%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-08-15 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.03%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.78%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.18%1.4%2026-08-15 16:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.03%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.78%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.18%1.4%2026-08-15 16:50