Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cádiz CF v Celta Vigo

Início: 2026-08-15 17:00 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

43 casas de apostas (13 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cádiz CF (Local)

Previsão 43.80%2.28odd justa
EV -3.19%
Vantagem -1.44%
Kelly -2.64%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.21

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
43.04%43.93%43.79%45.93%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.882.062.102.2153.19%48.46%47.62%45.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Celta Vigo (Visitante)

Previsão 28.17%3.55odd justa
EV +0.003%
Vantagem +0.001%
Kelly +0.001%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.55

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.65%28.15%28.11%28.75%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.103.293.303.5532.26%30.41%30.30%28.17%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 28.03%3.57odd justa
EV -1.91%
Vantagem -0.546%
Kelly -0.765%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.27%27.93%28.11%29.15%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.103.273.253.5032.26%30.54%30.77%28.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Cádiz CF (Local): 43.80%; Celta Vigo (Visitante): 28.17%; Empate: 28.03%. Para Celta Vigo (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.5499. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.5500, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.003%.

Odds das casas de apostas (43 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
ATG (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%EV -9.76%E -4.74%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV +0.003%E +0.001%K +0.001%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.42%EV -3.31%E -0.960%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 16:39
Svenska Spel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%EV -9.76%E -4.74%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV +0.003%E +0.001%K +0.001%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.42%EV -3.31%E -0.960%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-15 16:40
Pinnacle🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.57%EV -3.19%E -1.44%K -2.64%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.59%EV -1.69%E -0.483%K -0.678%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.83%EV -6.40%E -1.91%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 16:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.48%EV -5.38%E -2.49%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -4.22%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 16:44
LowVig.ag🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.48%EV -5.38%E -2.49%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -4.22%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 16:45
BetAnything🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.48%EV -5.38%E -2.49%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.62%EV -4.22%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 16:44
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.76%EV -12.39%E -6.20%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.22%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.32%EV -6.12%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 16:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.76%EV -12.39%E -6.20%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.22%E -1.24%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.32%EV -6.12%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-15 16:40
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.61%EV -5.82%E -2.71%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -5.63%E -1.68%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 16:45
Casumo🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.77%EV -13.70%E -6.96%K -14.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -5.63%E -1.68%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 16:25
betPARX🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.77%EV -13.70%E -6.96%K -14.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -5.63%E -1.68%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 16:25
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.77%EV -13.70%E -6.96%K -14.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -5.63%E -1.68%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 16:25
TABtouch🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.77%EV -13.70%E -6.96%K -14.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -5.63%E -1.68%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-15 16:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.18%EV -7.57%E -3.59%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.91%EV -5.91%E -1.77%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.91%EV -6.40%E -1.91%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 16:44
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -5.82%E -2.71%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -1.91%E -0.546%K -0.765%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 16:40
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -5.82%E -2.71%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.71%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 16:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -1.91%E -0.546%K -0.765%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 16:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -5.82%E -2.71%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 16:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 16:50
Bovada🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.27%EV -6.70%E -3.14%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.80%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 16:44
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 16:49
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 16:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.77%EV -15.02%E -7.74%K -15.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.32%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-15 16:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.77%EV -15.02%E -7.74%K -15.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.32%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-15 16:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.77%EV -15.02%E -7.74%K -15.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.32%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-15 16:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -8.45%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -4.71%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 16:39
Betsson🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -8.45%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 16:55
NordicBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -8.45%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 16:49
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -8.45%E -2.60%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 16:54
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.86%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 16:54
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.86%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.52%E -2.28%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 16:55
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -10.20%E -4.98%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.86%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -4.71%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 16:39
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -9.86%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -8.92%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 16:29
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -8.01%E -3.81%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.86%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -11.72%E -3.72%K -5.45%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 16:49
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -14.58%E -7.48%K -15.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.86%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -4.71%E -1.39%K -1.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 16:54
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.20%E -4.98%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -9.86%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 16:49
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.20%E -4.98%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -9.86%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 16:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.05%EV -12.39%E -6.20%K -12.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.53%EV -9.86%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.42%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-15 16:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 45.58%EV -17.65%E -9.39%K -20.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.78%EV -9.86%E -3.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -13.12%E -4.23%K -6.25%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-15 16:39
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.20%E -4.98%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -12.67%E -4.09%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 16:29
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.20%E -4.98%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -12.67%E -4.09%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 16:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.20%E -4.98%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -12.67%E -4.09%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 16:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.20%E -4.98%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -12.67%E -4.09%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -10.32%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-15 16:30
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.99%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-08-15 16:55
Matchbook◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.99%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.40%0.6%2026-08-15 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.03%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.78%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.18%1.4%2026-08-15 16:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.03%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.78%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.18%1.4%2026-08-15 16:50