Language:English
Almería v Leganés
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Almería (Local)
Prediction 54.65%1.83fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -2.17%
Kelly -5.01%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.76
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.34%54.68%54.66%57.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.671.671.7666.23%60.02%59.88%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Leganés (Visit)
Prediction 20.08%4.98fair odd
EV +1.62%
Edge +0.319%
Kelly +0.398%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 5.06
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.79%20.11%20.10%21.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.554.605.0623.81%21.96%21.74%19.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.26%3.96fair odd
EV -0.204%
Edge -0.052%
Kelly -0.069%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.63%25.22%25.24%26.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.663.603.9529.85%27.34%27.78%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Almería (Local): 54.65%; Leganés (Visit): 20.08%; Draw: 25.26%. For Leganés (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.98. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.06, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.62%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.34%EV -4.36%E -2.49%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 5.06I 19.76%NM 18.79%EV +1.62%E +0.319%K +0.398%G +0.006% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.86%EV -10.56%E -2.98%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.86%EV -3.81%E -2.17%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 4.98I 20.08%NM 19.39%EV +0.009%E +0.002%K +0.002%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.75%EV -5.26%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.00%EV -9.82%E -5.95%K -15.11%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -1.60%E -0.326%K -0.410%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -0.204%E -0.052%K -0.069%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-11 14:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.00%EV -9.82%E -5.95%K -15.11%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -1.60%E -0.326%K -0.410%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -0.204%E -0.052%K -0.069%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.00%EV -9.82%E -5.95%K -15.11%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -1.60%E -0.326%K -0.410%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -0.204%E -0.052%K -0.069%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.00%EV -9.82%E -5.95%K -15.11%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -1.60%E -0.326%K -0.410%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -0.204%E -0.052%K -0.069%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-11 14:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.00%EV -9.82%E -5.95%K -15.11%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -1.60%E -0.326%K -0.410%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -0.204%E -0.052%K -0.069%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-11 14:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.18%EV -6.54%E -3.83%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -3.61%E -0.751%K -0.949%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.16%EV -5.26%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-11 13:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.14%EV -5.45%E -3.15%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.08%EV -4.61%E -0.971%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.78%EV -2.73%E -0.709%K -0.958%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-11 13:58 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.25%EV -6.54%E -3.83%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -4.61%E -0.971%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 14:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.77%EV -10.37%E -6.32%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -4.61%E -0.971%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 23.63%EV -0.456%E -0.116%K -0.155%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 13:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.65%EV -9.82%E -5.95%K -15.11%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.54%EV -5.61%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.22%EV -7.09%E -4.17%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.82%EV -6.62%E -1.42%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.96%EV -10.31%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.75%EV -6.00%E -3.49%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -7.62%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -4.90%E -2.82%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -7.62%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -4.90%E -2.82%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -7.62%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -4.90%E -2.82%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -7.62%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.15%EV -6.54%E -3.83%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -7.62%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-11 13:58 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -7.09%E -4.17%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -7.62%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -7.09%E -4.17%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -7.62%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-11 13:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -7.09%E -4.17%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.92%EV -7.62%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-11 13:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -7.62%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.20%EV -12.01%E -7.46%K -19.69%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -7.62%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -5.26%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.20%EV -12.01%E -7.46%K -19.69%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -7.62%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -5.26%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.20%EV -12.01%E -7.46%K -19.69%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -7.62%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -5.26%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-11 14:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.20%EV -12.01%E -7.46%K -19.69%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.67%EV -7.62%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -5.26%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 56.48%EV -13.65%E -8.64%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.40%EV -7.62%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.12%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 56.48%EV -13.65%E -8.64%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.40%EV -7.62%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.12%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.64%EV -14.19%E -9.04%K -24.90%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.33%EV -7.62%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.03%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-11 14:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.28%EV -6.54%E -3.83%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -9.63%E -2.14%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.45%E -3.15%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -9.63%E -2.14%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -6.54%E -3.83%K -9.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -9.63%E -2.14%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.87%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -9.63%E -2.14%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-11 13:58 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.87%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -9.63%E -2.14%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.15%EV -8.18%E -4.87%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -9.63%E -2.14%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.63%EV -10.31%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-11 13:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -12.56%E -7.85%K -20.93%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.75%EV -9.63%E -2.14%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.43%EV -10.37%E -6.32%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.06%EV -10.63%E -2.39%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.47%EV -8.18%E -4.87%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -11.64%E -2.65%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-11 13:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.62%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -11.64%E -2.65%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-11 13:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.42%EV -7.09%E -4.17%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -11.64%E -2.65%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.86%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -11.64%E -2.65%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 54.83%EV -13.65%E -8.64%K -23.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.69%EV -11.64%E -2.65%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.48%EV -14.10%E -4.15%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 56.54%EV -17.47%E -11.57%K -34.26%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.40%EV -11.64%E -2.65%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.05%EV -10.31%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 17.1% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.17%EV -7.09%E -4.17%K -10.13%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -13.04%E -3.01%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -5.26%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-11 14:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 53.77%EV -7.64%E -4.52%K -11.07%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.99%EV -13.04%E -3.01%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-11 13:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -13.04%E -3.01%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-11 13:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.14%EV -9.28%E -5.59%K -14.05%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.90%EV -13.65%E -3.17%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.96%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-11 13:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -15.66%E -3.73%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -9.05%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-11 13:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.34%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -15.66%E -3.73%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-11 13:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.34%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -15.66%E -3.73%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-11 13:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.34%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -15.66%E -3.73%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-11 13:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.34%EV -8.73%E -5.23%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -15.66%E -3.73%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -11.57%E -3.31%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-11 13:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 54.91%EV -16.38%E -10.71%K -30.91%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.00%EV -15.66%E -3.73%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.08%EV -15.36%E -4.59%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 19.0% | 2026-10-11 13:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 57.07% | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.99% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.95% | 0.1% | 2026-10-11 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.84% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.57% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.59% | 0.2% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.66% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.51% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.84% | 0.5% | 2026-10-11 14:14 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.94% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.89% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.17% | 0.6% | 2026-10-11 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.76% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.41% | 0.9% | 2026-10-11 14:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.90% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.76% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.34% | 1.2% | 2026-10-11 14:00 |