La escuela de los momios

Villarreal v Valencia

Inicio: 2026-02-22 20:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Villarreal (Local)

Predicción 56.56%1.77momio equitativo
EV -1.58%
Ventaja -0.907%
Kelly -2.13%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.74

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.03%56.58%56.42%57.60%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.611.671.671.7462.11%60.00%59.88%57.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Valencia (Visitante)

Predicción 18.83%5.31momio equitativo
EV +2.61%
Ventaja +0.479%
Kelly +0.586%
Crecimiento +0.015%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.73%18.78%18.89%19.87%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.504.934.895.4522.22%20.29%20.45%18.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.61%4.06momio equitativo
EV +1.14%
Ventaja +0.278%
Kelly +0.367%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.11

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.48%24.63%24.69%26.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.853.854.1130.30%25.98%25.97%24.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Marathon Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 57.36%EV -4.41%E -2.61%K -6.39%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.79%EV +2.61%E +0.479%K +0.586%G +0.015%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV -4.03%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-22 19:55
BetOnline.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 57.17%EV -4.41%E -2.61%K -6.39%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.73%EV +2.61%E +0.479%K +0.586%G +0.015%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV -5.26%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-22 19:10
LowVig.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 57.17%EV -4.41%E -2.61%K -6.39%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.73%EV +2.61%E +0.479%K +0.586%G +0.015%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV -5.26%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-22 19:10
Coolbet1.72I 58.14%NM 56.46%EV -2.71%E -1.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.98%EV +1.67%E +0.309%K +0.379%G +0.006%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.56%EV -6.49%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-22 19:00
Pinnacle1.72I 58.14%NM 56.18%EV -2.71%E -1.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%5.31I 18.83%NM 18.20%EV -0.026%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.63%EV -7.23%E -1.92%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.5%2026-02-22 19:55
Bovada1.68I 59.52%NM 56.66%EV -4.97%E -2.96%K -7.31%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -0.215%E -0.041%K -0.050%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -7.72%E -2.06%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-02-22 19:50
FanDuel1.67I 59.88%NM 56.61%EV -5.54%E -3.32%K -8.27%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.84%EV -0.215%E -0.041%K -0.050%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -8.95%E -2.42%K -3.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-22 19:15
DraftKings1.67I 59.88%NM 57.08%EV -5.54%E -3.32%K -8.27%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.16%EV -1.16%E -0.220%K -0.272%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.76%EV -5.26%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-22 19:55
Tipico (DE)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.12%EV -2.10%E -0.403%K -0.499%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -6.49%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-22 19:55
ATG (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 56.42%EV -1.58%E -0.907%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.63%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.94%EV +0.895%E +0.218%K +0.289%G +0.003%1.9%2026-02-22 19:25
Unibet (SE)1.71I 58.48%NM 56.85%EV -3.28%E -1.92%K -4.61%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.44%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.71%EV +0.895%E +0.218%K +0.289%G +0.003%2.9%2026-02-22 19:24
Svenska Spel1.71I 58.48%NM 56.85%EV -3.28%E -1.92%K -4.61%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.44%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.71%EV +0.895%E +0.218%K +0.289%G +0.003%2.9%2026-02-22 19:24
Unibet (NL)1.70I 58.82%NM 56.99%EV -3.84%E -2.26%K -5.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.38%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%EV +0.895%E +0.218%K +0.289%G +0.003%3.2%2026-02-22 19:23
Codere (IT)1.69I 59.17%NM 56.45%EV -4.41%E -2.61%K -6.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.46%EV -4.03%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-22 19:55
theScore Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 57.09%EV -5.54%E -3.32%K -8.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.07%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -1.57%E -0.392%K -0.522%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-22 19:55
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 56.09%EV -4.41%E -2.61%K -6.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.95%EV -6.49%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-22 19:10
Bet Victor1.67I 59.88%NM 56.75%EV -5.54%E -3.32%K -8.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -4.03%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.5%2026-02-22 19:49
Everygame1.67I 59.88%NM 56.57%EV -5.54%E -3.32%K -8.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.89%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV -5.26%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-22 19:55
Unibet (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -5.54%E -3.32%K -8.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -6.49%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-22 19:55
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.39%EV -5.54%E -3.32%K -8.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -6.49%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-22 19:10
SportsBet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.35%EV -6.10%E -3.68%K -9.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -7.72%E -2.06%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-22 19:10
Paddy Power1.65I 60.61%NM 56.31%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -8.95%E -2.42%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-22 19:10
TAB1.65I 60.61%NM 56.31%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -8.95%E -2.42%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-22 19:55
PMU (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.37%EV -8.37%E -5.16%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -5.86%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.37%EV -11.41%E -3.17%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-22 19:10
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 56.67%EV -4.97%E -2.96%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.23%EV -6.80%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.10%EV -2.80%E -0.708%K -0.948%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-22 19:55
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.67%EV -4.97%E -2.96%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.23%EV -6.80%E -1.37%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.10%EV -2.80%E -0.708%K -0.948%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-22 19:55
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.38%EV -4.97%E -2.96%K -7.31%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.33%EV -7.75%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.29%EV -4.03%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-22 19:30
Unibet (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.75%EV -6.10%E -3.68%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -7.75%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.03%EV -3.53%E -0.902%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-22 19:40
Betclic (FR)1.61I 62.11%NM 57.60%EV -8.93%E -5.55%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV -7.75%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.48%EV -2.80%E -0.708%K -0.948%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-22 19:53
1xBet1.72I 58.14%NM 56.49%EV -2.71%E -1.58%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.89I 20.45%NM 19.87%EV -7.93%E -1.62%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.64%EV +1.14%E +0.278%K +0.367%G +0.004%2.9%2026-02-22 19:55
PlayUp1.65I 60.61%NM 55.99%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.05%EV -8.69%E -1.79%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -8.95%E -2.42%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-22 19:55
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 56.01%EV -4.41%E -2.61%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -9.63%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -4.03%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-22 19:34
Ladbrokes (UK)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.30%EV -5.54%E -3.32%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -9.63%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -4.03%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-22 19:35
Coral1.67I 59.88%NM 56.30%EV -5.54%E -3.32%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -9.63%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -4.03%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-22 19:35
Unibet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.45%EV -6.10%E -3.68%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -9.63%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -4.03%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-22 19:24
Grosvenor1.66I 60.24%NM 56.45%EV -6.10%E -3.68%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -9.63%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -4.03%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-22 19:24
LeoVegas (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.45%EV -6.10%E -3.68%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -9.63%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -4.03%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-22 19:23
Casumo1.66I 60.24%NM 56.45%EV -6.10%E -3.68%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -9.63%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -4.03%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-22 19:25
TABtouch1.66I 60.24%NM 56.45%EV -6.10%E -3.68%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -9.63%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -4.03%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-22 19:23
Bally Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.45%EV -6.10%E -3.68%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -9.63%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -4.03%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-22 19:25
betPARX1.66I 60.24%NM 56.45%EV -6.10%E -3.68%K -9.25%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -9.63%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -4.03%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-22 19:25
BetRivers1.65I 60.61%NM 56.60%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -9.63%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.95%EV -4.03%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-22 19:25
Betr (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.60%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -9.63%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.95%EV -4.03%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-22 19:55
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 55.76%EV -5.54%E -3.32%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -9.63%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -7.72%E -2.06%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-22 19:49
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.76%EV -5.54%E -3.32%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -9.63%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -7.72%E -2.06%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-22 19:50
NetBet (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.70%EV -8.37%E -5.16%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -9.63%E -2.01%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -6.49%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-22 19:50
BetUS1.67I 59.88%NM 56.53%EV -5.54%E -3.32%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.87%EV -10.57%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -1.57%E -0.392%K -0.522%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-22 19:55
Betway1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -3.84%E -2.26%K -5.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.83%EV -10.57%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -6.49%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-22 18:54
Neds1.67I 59.88%NM 56.19%EV -5.54%E -3.32%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -10.57%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -4.03%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 19:35
Ladbrokes (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.19%EV -5.54%E -3.32%K -8.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -10.57%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -4.03%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-22 19:35
Bet Right1.65I 60.61%NM 56.31%EV -6.67%E -4.04%K -10.26%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -10.57%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV -5.26%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-22 19:54
LeoVegas1.63I 61.35%NM 56.61%EV -7.80%E -4.79%K -12.38%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -10.57%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.97%EV -5.26%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-22 19:23
Virgin Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 56.43%EV -7.80%E -4.79%K -12.38%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -10.57%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -6.49%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-22 19:25
LiveScore Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 56.43%EV -7.80%E -4.79%K -12.38%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -10.57%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -6.49%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-22 19:25
Fliff1.62I 61.73%NM 56.40%EV -8.37%E -5.16%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.24%EV -10.57%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -7.72%E -2.06%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-22 19:55
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 55.83%EV -8.37%E -5.16%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -10.57%E -2.23%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -11.41%E -3.17%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-22 19:35
Winamax (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.16%EV -7.23%E -4.41%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -11.51%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -6.49%E -1.71%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-22 19:55
Parions Sport (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 55.80%EV -7.23%E -4.41%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.47%EV -11.51%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -8.95%E -2.42%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-02-22 19:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 54.03%EV -8.37%E -5.16%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.45%EV -15.28%E -3.39%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.52%EV -18.79%E -5.69%K -8.17%G +0.000%14.3%2026-02-22 19:01
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.60%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.48%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.91%0.3%2026-02-22 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.60%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.48%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.91%0.3%2026-02-22 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.73I 57.80%NM 57.60%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.48%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.91%0.3%2026-02-22 19:55
Matchbook1.72I 58.14%NM 57.92%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.18%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.91%0.4%2026-02-22 19:55
Smarkets1.73I 57.80%NM 57.42%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.74%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.84%0.7%2026-02-22 19:55