La escuela de los momios

Villarreal v Sevilla

Inicio: 2026-05-13 17:00 UTC

Final: Villarreal 2–3 Sevilla

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Villarreal (Local)

Predicción 44.93%2.23momio equitativo
EV -1.60%
Ventaja -0.730%
Kelly -1.34%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.19

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.23%44.91%44.94%47.01%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.092.102.1950.00%47.81%47.62%45.66%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Sevilla (Visitante)

Predicción 26.82%3.73momio equitativo
EV +5.41%
Ventaja +1.38%
Kelly +1.85%
Crecimiento +0.100%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.93

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.68%26.89%26.79%28.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.503.503.9332.26%28.60%28.57%25.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.25%3.54momio equitativo
EV -1.14%
Ventaja -0.326%
Kelly -0.457%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.83%28.20%28.27%29.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.323.353.5033.33%30.15%29.85%28.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.08I 48.08%NM 46.63%EV -6.54%E -3.14%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.68%EV +5.41%E +1.38%K +1.85%G +0.100%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.69%EV -4.53%E -1.34%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-13 16:55
Coolbet2.13I 46.95%NM 45.59%EV -4.29%E -2.02%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.10%EV -0.219%E -0.059%K -0.080%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 28.31%EV -3.12%E -0.909%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-13 16:55
Unibet (NL)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.99%EV -3.40%E -1.58%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.14%EV -0.755%E -0.204%K -0.280%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -5.38%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-13 16:41
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.64%E -2.69%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -0.755%E -0.204%K -0.280%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -8.20%E -2.52%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-13 16:55
Unibet (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -10.14%E -5.07%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -0.755%E -0.204%K -0.280%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -12.44%E -4.01%K -5.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-13 16:50
ATG (SE)2.18I 45.87%NM 44.48%EV -2.05%E -0.940%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.57%EV -2.10%E -0.574%K -0.791%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.95%EV -5.38%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-13 16:40
Unibet (SE)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.83%EV -3.40%E -1.58%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.40%EV -2.10%E -0.574%K -0.791%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.77%EV -5.38%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-13 16:40
Svenska Spel2.15I 46.51%NM 44.83%EV -3.40%E -1.58%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.40%EV -2.10%E -0.574%K -0.791%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.77%EV -5.38%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-13 16:41
Marathon Bet2.17I 46.08%NM 44.69%EV -2.50%E -1.15%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.79%EV -2.90%E -0.801%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.52%EV -3.97%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-13 16:55
BetMGM2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -7.89%E -3.85%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -3.44%E -0.955%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -1.14%E -0.326%K -0.457%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-13 16:25
Coral2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -7.89%E -3.85%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -3.44%E -0.955%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -1.14%E -0.326%K -0.457%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-13 16:25
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -5.64%E -2.69%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -3.44%E -0.955%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -6.79%E -2.06%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-13 16:40
FanDuel2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -5.64%E -2.69%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -3.44%E -0.955%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -6.79%E -2.06%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-13 16:40
Tipico (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -7.89%E -3.85%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -3.44%E -0.955%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -3.97%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-13 16:40
Ladbrokes (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -10.14%E -5.07%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -3.44%E -0.955%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -1.14%E -0.326%K -0.457%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-13 16:20
Neds2.00I 50.00%NM 46.83%EV -10.14%E -5.07%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -3.44%E -0.955%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -2.55%E -0.740%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-13 16:20
Ladbrokes (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.83%EV -10.14%E -5.07%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -3.44%E -0.955%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -2.55%E -0.740%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-13 16:20
Pinnacle2.19I 45.66%NM 44.40%EV -1.60%E -0.730%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.16%EV -3.97%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.43%EV -3.40%E -0.995%K -1.41%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-13 16:50
BetOnline.ag2.14I 46.73%NM 45.12%EV -3.85%E -1.80%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.05%EV -4.24%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.83%EV -1.99%E -0.573%K -0.805%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-13 16:45
LowVig.ag2.14I 46.73%NM 45.12%EV -3.85%E -1.80%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.05%EV -4.24%E -1.19%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.83%EV -1.99%E -0.573%K -0.805%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-13 16:45
BetUS2.15I 46.51%NM 44.50%EV -3.40%E -1.58%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -4.78%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.56%EV -5.38%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-13 16:50
Codere (IT)2.13I 46.95%NM 44.73%EV -4.29%E -2.02%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -4.78%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.44%EV -5.38%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-13 16:45
DraftKings2.10I 47.62%NM 45.27%EV -5.64%E -2.69%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -4.78%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.96%EV -3.97%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-13 16:40
Grosvenor2.12I 47.17%NM 44.45%EV -4.74%E -2.24%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV -4.78%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -8.20%E -2.52%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-13 16:40
Casumo2.12I 47.17%NM 44.45%EV -4.74%E -2.24%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV -4.78%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -8.20%E -2.52%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-13 16:40
betPARX2.12I 47.17%NM 44.45%EV -4.74%E -2.24%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV -4.78%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -8.20%E -2.52%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-13 16:40
Bally Bet2.12I 47.17%NM 44.45%EV -4.74%E -2.24%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.55%EV -4.78%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.00%EV -8.20%E -2.52%K -3.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-13 16:40
Betclic (FR)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.32%EV -6.54%E -3.14%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.71%EV -5.32%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.97%EV -4.81%E -1.43%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-13 16:50
Bovada2.13I 46.95%NM 44.56%EV -4.29%E -2.02%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.33%EV -5.38%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-13 16:46
Unibet (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.91%EV -5.64%E -2.69%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -5.38%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-13 16:45
Everygame2.10I 47.62%NM 44.91%EV -5.64%E -2.69%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.15%EV -5.38%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-13 16:35
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.64%E -2.69%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.79%E -2.06%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-13 16:31
Sky Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -7.89%E -3.85%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.97%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-13 16:35
Winamax (DE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.50%EV -7.89%E -3.85%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.65%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -5.38%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-13 16:45
Paddy Power2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.89%E -3.85%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -6.12%E -1.75%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.20%E -2.52%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-13 16:35
TABtouch2.07I 48.31%NM 44.30%EV -6.99%E -3.38%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.58%EV -7.46%E -2.16%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -11.03%E -3.50%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-13 16:40
Unibet2.07I 48.31%NM 44.30%EV -6.99%E -3.38%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.58%EV -7.46%E -2.16%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -11.03%E -3.50%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-13 16:41
LeoVegas (SE)2.07I 48.31%NM 44.30%EV -6.99%E -3.38%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.58%EV -7.46%E -2.16%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -11.03%E -3.50%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-13 16:40
Winamax (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -10.14%E -5.07%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.52%EV -7.46%E -2.16%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -6.79%E -2.06%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-13 16:40
Fliff2.00I 50.00%NM 45.56%EV -10.14%E -5.07%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -7.46%E -2.16%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -8.20%E -2.52%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-13 16:55
theScore Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -5.64%E -2.69%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -1.14%E -0.326%K -0.457%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-13 16:40
Betway2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -3.40%E -1.58%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.79%E -2.06%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-13 16:35
William Hill2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -7.89%E -3.85%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -6.79%E -2.06%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-13 16:30
LiveScore Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.21%EV -6.54%E -3.14%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -9.62%E -3.00%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-13 16:40
Virgin Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 44.21%EV -6.54%E -3.14%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -9.62%E -3.00%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-13 16:40
NetBet (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 44.33%EV -6.99%E -3.38%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -9.62%E -3.00%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-13 16:45
BetRivers2.06I 48.54%NM 44.05%EV -7.44%E -3.61%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -12.44%E -4.01%K -5.92%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-13 16:40
PMU (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -7.89%E -3.85%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -8.80%E -2.59%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -12.44%E -4.01%K -5.92%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-13 16:40
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 43.45%EV -2.05%E -0.940%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -10.14%E -3.03%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -5.38%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-13 16:35
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 43.45%EV -2.05%E -0.940%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -10.14%E -3.03%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -5.38%E -1.61%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-13 16:35
LeoVegas2.02I 49.50%NM 44.14%EV -9.24%E -4.57%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.62%EV -10.14%E -3.03%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.24%EV -13.85%E -4.54%K -6.76%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-13 16:40
betfred_uk2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -5.64%E -2.69%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -1.14%E -0.326%K -0.457%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-13 16:40
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -5.64%E -2.69%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -3.97%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-13 16:40
Bet Right2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -5.64%E -2.69%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -3.97%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-13 16:40
TAB2.15I 46.51%NM 43.23%EV -3.40%E -1.58%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -8.20%E -2.52%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-13 16:50
PlayUp2.12I 47.17%NM 43.58%EV -4.74%E -2.24%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -11.48%E -3.48%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -8.20%E -2.52%K -3.65%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-13 16:50
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -5.64%E -2.69%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -12.83%E -3.95%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -3.97%E -1.17%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-13 16:55
BoyleSports2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -7.89%E -3.85%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -12.83%E -3.95%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -6.79%E -2.06%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-13 16:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 43.26%EV -10.14%E -5.07%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -16.85%E -5.44%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.84%EV -15.26%E -5.09%K -7.63%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-13 16:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.20I 45.45%NM 45.30%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.23%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.47%0.3%2026-05-13 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.37%0.7%2026-05-13 16:41
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.37%0.7%2026-05-13 16:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.37%0.7%2026-05-13 16:45
Smarkets2.18I 45.87%NM 45.37%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.37%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.26%1.1%2026-05-13 16:50
Kalshi2.13I 46.95%NM 46.07%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.49%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.44%1.9%2026-05-13 16:41