Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Villarreal v Levante

2026-09-20 16:30 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Resultado del partido

28 corredores (11 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Villarreal (Local)

Predicción 59.00%1.70momio equitativo
EV +1.47%
Ventaja +0.857%
Kelly +2.05%
Crecimiento +0.030%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.72

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.05%58.95%59.09%59.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.481.601.601.7267.57%62.57%62.50%58.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Levante (Visitante)

Predicción 18.78%5.32momio equitativo
EV +1.42%
Ventaja +0.262%
Kelly +0.322%
Crecimiento +0.005%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.52%18.73%18.83%19.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.404.954.955.4022.73%20.21%20.20%18.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 22.22%4.50momio equitativo
EV -3.77%
Ventaja -0.872%
Kelly -1.13%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.33%22.32%22.08%23.70%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.904.164.204.3325.64%24.05%23.81%23.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Villarreal (Local): 59.00%; Levante (Visitante): 18.78%; Empate: 22.22%. Para Villarreal (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.70. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 1.72, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +1.47%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (28 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 57.16%EV +1.47%E +0.857%K +2.05%G +0.030%5.12I 19.53%NM 19.20%EV -3.84%E -0.750%K -0.933%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.63%EV -7.55%E -1.82%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.7%2026-09-13 19:30
Codere (IT)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.34%EV -3.84%E -2.35%K -6.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.02%EV -6.10%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.64%EV -6.66%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-13 20:16
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.49%EV -4.43%E -2.73%K -7.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -6.10%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -6.66%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-13 17:16
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.33%EV -4.43%E -2.73%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -9.85%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.98%EV -4.44%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-13 20:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -4.43%E -2.73%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -9.85%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -6.66%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 17:55
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -4.43%E -2.73%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -9.85%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -6.66%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 17:55
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -4.43%E -2.73%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -9.85%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -6.66%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 17:55
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.05%EV -4.43%E -2.73%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -9.85%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -13.33%E -3.42%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-13 19:20
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.18%EV -5.02%E -3.12%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -9.85%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -6.66%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.18%EV -5.02%E -3.12%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -9.85%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -6.66%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.20%EV -5.02%E -3.12%K -8.22%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV -9.85%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -13.33%E -3.42%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 19:20
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.12%EV -5.61%E -3.50%K -9.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.52%EV +1.42%E +0.262%K +0.322%G +0.005%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.36%EV -10.00%E -2.47%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-13 20:15
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.12%EV -5.61%E -3.50%K -9.34%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.52%EV +1.42%E +0.262%K +0.322%G +0.005%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.36%EV -10.00%E -2.47%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-13 20:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.95%EV -5.61%E -3.50%K -9.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -6.10%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.19%EV -5.55%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-13 19:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -5.61%E -3.50%K -9.34%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -6.10%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -6.66%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 17:40
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.25%EV -5.61%E -3.50%K -9.34%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -7.97%E -1.63%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -8.89%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 17:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.88%EV -6.20%E -3.90%K -10.50%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -1.40%E -0.267%K -0.330%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.99%EV -3.77%E -0.872%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-13 19:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.88%EV -6.20%E -3.90%K -10.50%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -1.40%E -0.267%K -0.330%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.99%EV -3.77%E -0.872%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-13 19:55
Pinnacle🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.61%EV -6.20%E -3.90%K -10.50%G +0.000%5.18I 19.31%NM 18.30%EV -2.72%E -0.524%K -0.650%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 22.09%EV -4.66%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-13 18:06
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.25%EV -6.20%E -3.90%K -10.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.84%EV -6.10%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -4.44%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 18:00
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.25%EV -6.20%E -3.90%K -10.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.84%EV -6.10%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -4.44%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 19:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.15%EV -6.20%E -3.90%K -10.50%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -1.40%E -0.267%K -0.330%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -8.89%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 18:00
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.45%EV -6.79%E -4.30%K -11.70%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -6.10%E -1.22%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -11.11%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-13 20:15
LeoVegas🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.88%EV -6.79%E -4.30%K -11.70%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.25%EV -10.79%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -11.11%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 20:20
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.67%EV -7.38%E -4.70%K -12.94%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.39%EV -10.79%E -2.27%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -6.66%E -1.59%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-13 18:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.07%EV -7.97%E -5.11%K -14.23%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.28%EV -11.73%E -2.50%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -11.11%E -2.78%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-13 20:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.56%EV -9.15%E -5.94%K -16.94%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.11%EV -9.85%E -2.05%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.33%EV -4.44%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 17:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 58.44%EV -12.69%E -8.57%K -26.43%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.66%EV -17.36%E -3.95%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.90%EV -12.22%E -3.09%K -4.14%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-13 17:45
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (2)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 57.65%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.26%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.09%3.9%2026-09-13 20:31
Smarkets1.54I 64.94%NM 57.23%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.58%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.19%13.5%2026-09-13 17:45
Arbitraje (14 combinaciones) +0.25%1xBet 1.72 (58.3%) / Betsson 5.40 (18.6%) / BetOnline.ag 4.33 (23.2%)Ver las 14 combinaciones
Villarreal (Local)Levante (Visitante)EmpateMargen
1xBet🎯 1.72 (58.3%)Betsson🎯 5.40 (18.6%)BetOnline.ag🎯 4.33 (23.2%)+0.248%
1xBet🎯 1.72 (58.3%)Betsson🎯 5.40 (18.6%)LowVig.ag🎯 4.33 (23.2%)+0.248%
1xBet🎯 1.72 (58.3%)NordicBet🎯 5.40 (18.6%)BetOnline.ag🎯 4.33 (23.2%)+0.248%
1xBet🎯 1.72 (58.3%)NordicBet🎯 5.40 (18.6%)LowVig.ag🎯 4.33 (23.2%)+0.248%
1xBet🎯 1.72 (58.2%)Betsson🎯 5.40 (18.5%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.086%
1xBet🎯 1.72 (58.2%)Betsson🎯 5.40 (18.5%)Fanatics🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.086%
1xBet🎯 1.72 (58.2%)Betsson🎯 5.40 (18.5%)DraftKings🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.086%
1xBet🎯 1.72 (58.2%)Betsson🎯 5.40 (18.5%)Winamax (DE)🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.086%
1xBet🎯 1.72 (58.2%)NordicBet🎯 5.40 (18.5%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.086%
1xBet🎯 1.72 (58.2%)NordicBet🎯 5.40 (18.5%)Fanatics🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.086%
1xBet🎯 1.72 (58.2%)NordicBet🎯 5.40 (18.5%)DraftKings🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.086%
1xBet🎯 1.72 (58.2%)NordicBet🎯 5.40 (18.5%)Winamax (DE)🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.086%
1xBet🎯 1.72 (58.2%)Betsson🎯 5.40 (18.5%)Pinnacle🎯 4.29 (23.3%)+0.032%
1xBet🎯 1.72 (58.2%)NordicBet🎯 5.40 (18.5%)Pinnacle🎯 4.29 (23.3%)+0.032%