La escuela de los momios

Villarreal v Elche CF

Inicio: 2026-03-08 13:02 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Villarreal (Local)

Predicción 65.19%1.53momio equitativo
EV +1.70%
Ventaja +1.09%
Kelly +3.03%
Crecimiento +0.052%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
62.11%65.05%65.30%66.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.401.451.441.5671.43%69.17%69.44%64.10%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Elche CF (Visitante)

Predicción 14.80%6.76momio equitativo
EV +9.52%
Ventaja +1.29%
Kelly +1.49%
Crecimiento +0.142%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.96%14.88%14.70%18.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.356.416.507.4018.69%15.60%15.38%13.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 20.01%5.00momio equitativo
EV +0.042%
Ventaja +0.008%
Kelly +0.011%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.19%20.07%20.00%23.24%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.754.644.655.0026.67%21.53%21.51%20.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Betsson1.44I 69.44%NM 66.62%EV -6.12%E -4.25%K -13.92%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.96%EV +9.52%E +1.29%K +1.49%G +0.142%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.41%EV -5.96%E -1.27%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-08 12:59
1xBet1.48I 67.57%NM 65.56%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.32%G +0.000%7.15I 13.99%NM 13.57%EV +5.82%E +0.814%K +0.946%G +0.055%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.87%EV -6.96%E -1.50%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-08 12:59
Bet Victor1.44I 69.44%NM 66.27%EV -6.12%E -4.25%K -13.92%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.63%EV +3.60%E +0.514%K +0.599%G +0.022%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.09%EV -4.96%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-08 12:58
theScore Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.57%EV -6.78%E -4.74%K -15.76%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.60%EV +3.60%E +0.514%K +0.599%G +0.022%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -3.96%E -0.825%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-08 13:00
TAB1.42I 70.42%NM 65.86%EV -7.43%E -5.23%K -17.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV +3.60%E +0.514%K +0.599%G +0.022%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-08 13:00
Coolbet1.48I 67.57%NM 65.67%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 14.09%EV +2.12%E +0.307%K +0.359%G +0.008%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.25%EV -3.96%E -0.825%K -1.04%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-08 12:58
NordicBet1.43I 69.93%NM 65.42%EV -6.78%E -4.74%K -15.76%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.56%EV +2.12%E +0.307%K +0.359%G +0.008%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.02%EV -10.96%E -2.46%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-08 13:00
LowVig.ag1.48I 67.57%NM 65.37%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.78I 14.75%NM 14.27%EV +0.341%E +0.050%K +0.059%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.37%EV -4.96%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-08 12:59
BetOnline.ag1.48I 67.57%NM 65.37%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.78I 14.75%NM 14.27%EV +0.341%E +0.050%K +0.059%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.37%EV -4.96%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-08 13:00
ATG (SE)1.50I 66.67%NM 65.02%EV -2.21%E -1.47%K -4.42%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.45%EV -0.103%E -0.015%K -0.018%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.53%EV -4.96%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.5%2026-03-08 12:59
Unibet (SE)1.49I 67.11%NM 65.17%EV -2.86%E -1.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.39%EV -0.103%E -0.015%K -0.018%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.44%EV -4.96%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-08 13:00
Svenska Spel1.49I 67.11%NM 65.17%EV -2.86%E -1.92%K -5.84%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.39%EV -0.103%E -0.015%K -0.018%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.44%EV -4.96%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-08 12:59
Unibet (NL)1.47I 68.03%NM 65.48%EV -4.17%E -2.84%K -8.87%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.26%EV -0.103%E -0.015%K -0.018%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.26%EV -4.96%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-08 13:00
Betclic (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 65.77%EV -4.82%E -3.30%K -10.48%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -0.103%E -0.015%K -0.018%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -3.96%E -0.825%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-08 12:57
Betr (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.43%E -5.23%K -17.68%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -0.103%E -0.015%K -0.018%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 12:59
PlayUp1.42I 70.42%NM 65.23%EV -7.43%E -5.23%K -17.68%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.72%EV -0.103%E -0.015%K -0.018%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.05%EV -11.96%E -2.72%K -3.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-08 12:59
Pinnacle1.48I 67.57%NM 65.70%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.85%EV -3.06%E -0.468%K -0.552%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.45%EV +0.042%E +0.008%K +0.011%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-08 12:59
Everygame1.45I 68.97%NM 65.43%EV -5.47%E -3.77%K -12.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -3.80%E -0.585%K -0.691%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.97%EV -4.96%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 12:59
BetUS1.45I 68.97%NM 65.43%EV -5.47%E -3.77%K -12.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -3.80%E -0.585%K -0.691%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.97%EV -4.96%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 12:59
FanDuel1.45I 68.97%NM 65.29%EV -5.47%E -3.77%K -12.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.57%EV -3.80%E -0.585%K -0.691%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.14%EV -5.96%E -1.27%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-08 13:00
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.59%EV -6.12%E -4.25%K -13.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -3.80%E -0.585%K -0.691%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -4.96%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-08 13:00
Fanatics1.44I 69.44%NM 65.59%EV -6.12%E -4.25%K -13.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -3.80%E -0.585%K -0.691%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -4.96%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-08 13:00
SportsBet1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -6.12%E -4.25%K -13.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -3.80%E -0.585%K -0.691%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-08 13:00
TABtouch1.43I 69.93%NM 65.32%EV -6.78%E -4.74%K -15.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -3.80%E -0.585%K -0.691%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 12:59
BetRivers1.43I 69.93%NM 65.32%EV -6.78%E -4.74%K -15.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -3.80%E -0.585%K -0.691%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 12:56
Unibet1.43I 69.93%NM 65.32%EV -6.78%E -4.74%K -15.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -3.80%E -0.585%K -0.691%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 13:00
LeoVegas (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 65.32%EV -6.78%E -4.74%K -15.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -3.80%E -0.585%K -0.691%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 12:59
Casumo1.43I 69.93%NM 65.32%EV -6.78%E -4.74%K -15.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -3.80%E -0.585%K -0.691%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 13:00
Grosvenor1.43I 69.93%NM 65.32%EV -6.78%E -4.74%K -15.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -3.80%E -0.585%K -0.691%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 13:00
betPARX1.43I 69.93%NM 65.32%EV -6.78%E -4.74%K -15.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -3.80%E -0.585%K -0.691%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 13:00
Bally Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 65.32%EV -6.78%E -4.74%K -15.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -3.80%E -0.585%K -0.691%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 13:00
Bet Right1.43I 69.93%NM 65.03%EV -6.78%E -4.74%K -15.76%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -3.80%E -0.585%K -0.691%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.66%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 12:59
PMU (FR)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.48%EV -7.43%E -5.23%K -17.68%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -3.80%E -0.585%K -0.691%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 12:59
NetBet (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -8.73%E -6.24%K -21.83%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.23%EV -3.80%E -0.585%K -0.691%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -5.96%E -1.27%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-08 12:59
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -8.73%E -6.24%K -21.83%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -3.80%E -0.585%K -0.691%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-08 13:00
LeoVegas1.41I 70.92%NM 65.20%EV -8.08%E -5.73%K -19.71%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.37%EV -5.28%E -0.825%K -0.978%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-08 12:59
Unibet (FR)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.74%EV -7.43%E -5.23%K -17.68%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.82%EV -6.76%E -1.07%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.45%EV -3.96%E -0.825%K -1.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 12:59
Bovada1.45I 68.97%NM 65.32%EV -5.47%E -3.77%K -12.16%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.15%EV -7.50%E -1.20%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.53%EV -2.96%E -0.610%K -0.769%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-08 12:58
Winamax (DE)1.43I 69.93%NM 65.76%EV -6.78%E -4.74%K -15.76%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%EV -7.50%E -1.20%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -1.96%E -0.400%K -0.502%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 13:00
Codere (IT)1.47I 68.03%NM 64.79%EV -4.17%E -2.84%K -8.87%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.36%EV -8.24%E -1.33%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.84%EV -3.96%E -0.825%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-08 12:59
Tipico (DE)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.11%EV -5.47%E -3.77%K -12.16%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.23%EV -8.24%E -1.33%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.67%EV -3.96%E -0.825%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-08 12:59
Fliff1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -8.73%E -6.24%K -21.83%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.72%EV -8.24%E -1.33%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.06%EV -8.96%E -1.97%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-08 12:59
Virgin Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 64.42%EV -6.78%E -4.74%K -15.76%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.10%EV -9.72%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-08 12:59
LiveScore Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 64.59%EV -7.43%E -5.23%K -17.68%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.03%EV -9.72%E -1.59%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-08 13:00
Coral1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -11.20%E -1.87%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -3.96%E -0.825%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-08 13:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -11.20%E -1.87%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -3.96%E -0.825%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-08 13:00
BetMGM1.48I 67.57%NM 64.17%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -11.20%E -1.87%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.00%EV -4.96%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 12:59
Betway1.48I 67.57%NM 64.17%EV -3.52%E -2.38%K -7.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -11.20%E -1.87%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.00%EV -4.96%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-08 12:59
Unibet (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 64.64%EV -5.47%E -3.77%K -12.16%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -11.20%E -1.87%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -4.96%E -1.04%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-08 12:59
DraftKings1.47I 68.03%NM 63.63%EV -4.17%E -2.84%K -8.87%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -11.20%E -1.87%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-08 13:00
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 64.39%EV -6.12%E -4.25%K -13.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -11.20%E -1.87%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-08 12:59
Mr Green (SE)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -6.12%E -4.25%K -13.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -11.20%E -1.87%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-08 12:59
BoyleSports1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -8.73%E -6.24%K -21.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -11.20%E -1.87%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -9.96%E -2.21%K -2.85%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-08 12:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 62.24%EV -8.73%E -6.24%K -21.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.52%EV -11.20%E -1.87%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.24%EV -24.97%E -6.66%K -9.08%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-08 13:00
Parions Sport (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 63.92%EV -5.47%E -3.77%K -12.16%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -12.68%E -2.15%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.37%EV -8.96%E -1.97%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-08 12:59
Neds1.46I 68.49%NM 63.73%EV -4.82%E -3.30%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.04%EV -14.16%E -2.44%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 12:59
Ladbrokes (AU)1.46I 68.49%NM 63.73%EV -4.82%E -3.30%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.04%EV -14.16%E -2.44%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -7.96%E -1.73%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 12:59
Winamax (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 63.33%EV -8.73%E -6.24%K -21.83%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.56%EV -15.64%E -2.74%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.11%EV -15.96%E -3.80%K -4.99%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-08 13:00
Marathon Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 62.11%EV +1.70%E +1.09%K +3.03%G +0.052%5.35I 18.69%NM 18.11%EV -20.82%E -3.89%K -4.79%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.77%EV -1.96%E -0.400%K -0.502%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-08 12:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.30%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.81%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.89%0.6%2026-03-08 13:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.30%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.81%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.89%0.6%2026-03-08 13:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.50I 66.67%NM 66.30%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.81%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.89%0.6%2026-03-08 13:00
Matchbook1.50I 66.67%NM 66.30%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.81%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.89%0.6%2026-03-08 13:00
Smarkets1.50I 66.67%NM 66.03%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.76%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%1.0%2026-03-08 13:00
Kalshi1.45I 68.97%NM 66.98%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.60%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.42%3.0%2026-03-08 13:00