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Valencia v Real Madrid

2026-11-07 20:00 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valencia (Local)

Prediction 12.54%7.97fair odd
EV +0.325%
Edge +0.041%
Kelly +0.046%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.79%12.64%12.60%14.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.457.508.0016.00%13.43%13.33%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Madrid (Visit)

Prediction 69.58%1.44fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -4.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.70%69.53%69.60%71.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.331.331.4178.13%74.98%75.19%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.88%5.59fair odd
EV +1.91%
Edge +0.335%
Kelly +0.406%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 5.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.54%17.83%17.79%18.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.655.195.255.7021.51%19.28%19.05%17.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Valencia (Local): 12.54%; Real Madrid (Visit): 69.58%; Draw: 17.88%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.59. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.70, producing a positive expected value of +1.91%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.57%EV -5.95%E -0.793%K -0.915%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.89%EV -7.46%E -5.61%K -22.60%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.54%EV +1.91%E +0.335%K +0.406%G +0.008%6.1%2026-10-25 22:11
SportsBet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.97%EV +0.325%E +0.041%K +0.046%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.93%EV -6.07%E -4.49%K -17.33%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.10%EV +0.119%E +0.021%K +0.026%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-25 21:27
1xBet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 12.32%EV +0.325%E +0.041%K +0.046%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 69.92%EV -1.89%E -1.34%K -4.61%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.76%EV -0.775%E -0.140%K -0.170%G +0.000%1.4%2026-10-25 21:46
betfred_uk🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.81%EV +0.325%E +0.041%K +0.046%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -7.46%E -5.61%K -22.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -1.67%E -0.303%K -0.371%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-25 21:27
FanDuel🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -5.95%E -0.793%K -0.915%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -8.15%E -6.18%K -25.48%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -1.67%E -0.303%K -0.371%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-25 21:27
Pinnacle🎯7.39I 13.53%NM 12.82%EV -7.32%E -0.991%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.69%EV -5.37%E -3.95%K -14.92%G +0.000%5.42I 18.45%NM 17.49%EV -3.10%E -0.572%K -0.701%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-25 21:36
Marathon Bet🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 12.29%EV -2.18%E -0.280%K -0.321%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.96%EV -4.67%E -3.41%K -12.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.75%EV -3.46%E -0.640%K -0.786%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-25 21:20
Winamax (DE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.19%EV -12.22%E -1.75%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.40%EV -7.46%E -5.61%K -22.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.42%EV -5.24%E -0.990%K -1.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-25 23:21
Fanatics🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -5.95%E -0.793%K -0.915%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.43%EV -5.37%E -3.95%K -14.92%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -6.14%E -1.17%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-25 21:20
Betr (AU)🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 12.17%EV -2.81%E -0.363%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.86%EV -6.07%E -4.49%K -17.33%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -6.14%E -1.17%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-25 21:27
Sky Bet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -5.95%E -0.793%K -0.915%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -7.46%E -5.61%K -22.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -6.14%E -1.17%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-25 22:00
Betway🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -18.49%E -2.84%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.27%EV -6.07%E -4.49%K -17.33%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -6.14%E -1.17%K -1.44%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 21:46
PointsBet (AU)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV +0.325%E +0.041%K +0.046%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.35%EV -5.37%E -3.95%K -14.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -10.61%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-26 01:00
Unibet (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -5.95%E -0.793%K -0.915%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.12%EV -6.76%E -5.05%K -19.89%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.53%EV -10.61%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-25 23:21
William Hill🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -5.95%E -0.793%K -0.915%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.46%E -5.61%K -22.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -10.61%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 20:50
picklebet_au🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -5.95%E -0.793%K -0.915%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.46%E -5.61%K -22.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -10.61%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 23:21
Mr Green (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -5.95%E -0.793%K -0.915%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.46%E -5.61%K -22.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -10.61%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 20:50
LeoVegas🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -5.95%E -0.793%K -0.915%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -8.15%E -6.18%K -25.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -10.61%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 23:22
Paddy Power🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -5.95%E -0.793%K -0.915%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -9.54%E -7.34%K -31.82%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -10.61%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-25 21:27
Unibet (FR)🎯7.20I 13.89%NM 12.31%EV -9.71%E -1.35%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 69.23%EV -10.94%E -8.54%K -39.06%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.46%EV -14.18%E -2.95%K -3.73%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-25 23:21
Winamax (FR)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 13.86%EV -21.62%E -3.46%K -4.12%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 67.70%EV -10.94%E -8.54%K -39.06%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.44%EV -15.97%E -3.40%K -4.32%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-25 23:21
Betclic (FR)🎯6.90I 14.49%NM 12.70%EV -13.47%E -1.95%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 68.46%EV -10.94%E -8.54%K -39.06%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.84%EV -16.87%E -3.63%K -4.62%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-25 23:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎8.33I 12.00%NM 11.66%1.37I 72.99%NM 70.88%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.46%3.0%2026-10-25 23:01
Smarkets◎6.40I 15.63%NM 13.41%1.28I 78.13%NM 67.07%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.51%16.5%2026-10-25 23:22