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Valencia v Celta Vigo

2026-08-22 17:30 UTC — La Liga - Spain

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valencia (Local)

Prediction 39.83%2.51fair odd
EV -4.00%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -2.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.05%39.86%39.89%40.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.322.352.4146.51%43.06%42.55%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Celta Vigo (Visit)

Prediction 30.92%3.23fair odd
EV -1.37%
Edge -0.430%
Kelly -0.626%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.37%30.91%30.88%31.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.013.003.1936.36%33.27%33.33%31.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.25%3.42fair odd
EV +2.37%
Edge +0.676%
Kelly +0.946%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.17%29.22%29.23%29.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.203.203.5033.33%31.30%31.25%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Valencia (Local): 39.83%; Celta Vigo (Visit): 30.92%; Draw: 29.25%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.42. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.50, producing a positive expected value of +2.37%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet2.41I 41.49%NM 40.92%EV -4.00%E -1.66%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.91%EV -1.37%E -0.430%K -0.626%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.17%EV +2.37%E +0.676%K +0.946%G +0.022%1.4%2026-08-02 11:04
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -8.38%E -3.64%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -3.48%E -1.06%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 11:44
Coolbet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -4.40%E -1.83%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.81%EV -4.15%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.39%EV -4.95%E -1.52%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 11:04
Codere (IT)2.39I 41.84%NM 39.90%EV -4.80%E -2.01%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -4.15%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.34%EV -4.95%E -1.52%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-02 11:50
betfred_uk2.38I 42.02%NM 40.00%EV -5.19%E -2.18%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.71%EV -4.15%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -4.95%E -1.52%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-02 11:05
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.38%E -3.64%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -4.95%E -1.52%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 11:45
Winamax (DE)2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -8.38%E -3.64%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -10.34%E -3.56%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -4.95%E -1.52%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 11:49
Betr (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.42%EV -4.40%E -1.83%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.02%EV -5.70%E -1.87%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-02 11:04
SportsBet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -6.39%E -2.72%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -4.15%E -1.34%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-02 11:00
FanDuel2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -6.39%E -2.72%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 11:05
Unibet (UK)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -6.39%E -2.72%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -6.41%E -2.00%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 11:47
Sky Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -5.19%E -2.18%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 11:03
Paddy Power2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.38%E -3.64%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.25%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-02 11:04
LeoVegas2.30I 43.48%NM 39.66%EV -8.38%E -3.64%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -8.79%E -2.98%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-02 11:50
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 40.73%EV -12.36%E -5.62%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -8.79%E -2.98%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -9.33%E -3.01%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-02 11:49
Betclic (FR)2.22I 45.05%NM 40.18%EV -11.57%E -5.21%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.76%EV -10.34%E -3.56%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 29.06%EV -10.21%E -3.33%K -4.93%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-02 13:53
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 40.02%EV -14.36%E -6.68%K -12.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.29%EV -14.98%E -5.45%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.68%EV -12.26%E -4.09%K -6.13%G +0.000%16.2%2026-08-02 11:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.42I 41.32%NM 39.04%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.97%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%5.9%2026-08-02 14:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.42I 41.32%NM 39.04%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.97%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%5.9%2026-08-02 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.42I 41.32%NM 34.33%2.56I 39.06%NM 32.45%2.50I 40.00%NM 33.23%20.4%2026-08-02 14:35
Smarkets1.46I 68.49%NM 34.31%1.53I 65.36%NM 32.74%1.52I 65.79%NM 32.95%99.6%2026-08-02 14:35